Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS El Paso, TX

986 
WGUS74 KEPZ 082214
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
414 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NMC017-082315-
/O.CON.KEPZ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160708T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANT-
414 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM FOR FOR
THE HOT SPRINGS CANYON DRAINAGE AREA IN EAST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALLING OVER 2 INCHES EARLIER OVER THE UPPER
REACHES OF HOT SPRINGS CANYON...WILL CONTINUE RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOW
MOVING THROUGH THE DRAINAGES DOWN THIS CANYON TOWRDS STATE ROUTE 61
JUST SOUTH OF SHERMAN. THE DEBRIS FLOW CAN CONSIST
OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

&&

LAT...LON 3272 10786 3274 10787 3283 10782 3282 10777
      3276 10780

$$

TRIPOLI

392 
WGUS74 KEPZ 082257
FFSEPZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
457 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NMC017-082301-
/O.CAN.KEPZ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160708T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRANT-
457 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT.  MINOR FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AS WATER
CONTINUES TO DRAIN SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HOT
SPRINGS CANYON DRAINAGES. PLEASE CONTINUE TO HEAD ANY REMAINING ROAD
CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 3272 10786 3274 10787 3283 10782 3282 10777
      3276 10780

$$

TRIPOLI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will move across New Mexico and west
Texas and produce a few showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon and tonight. High pressure aloft combined with low level
westerly winds will bring hot mostly dry weather to the Borderland
this weekend through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Air mass remains rather moist and moderately unstable today as
precipitable water was mostly above an inch and early afternoon
mucapes around 1000 J/kg. A weak upper vorticity center will
meanwhile move slowly eastward across the cwa this afternoon and
this evening initiating a few showers and thunderstorms. Like
yesterday several slow moving or back building storms may result
in locally heavy rainfalls while afternoon dcapes around 1500 J/kg
indicate a risk of damaging severe downbursts. Instability and
moisture would also suggest isolated storms producing small hail.

For the remainder of the forecast period the regional weather
pattern will be dominated by strong upper ridge which will extend
across the southern New Mexico-northern Mexico area through next
week. This will result in a zonal westerly flow across the
southern and central Rockies which will induce and sustain lee
surface troughing from eastern Colorado to eastern New Mexico
through most of next week. In addition embedded waves may support
several episodes of lee cyclogenesis which is rather unusual for
July. This pattern will sustain low level westerly continental
flow after today with transport of hot dry air mass into the
region. This factor plus subsidence under ridge and abundant
sunshine will produce hot temperatures tomorrow through next week.
Drier air at low levels under warm air aloft will also create more
stable conditions so any thunderstorm activity will be very
isolated and mainly confined to the higher mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 09/00Z-10/00Z.
Storms on the downward trend today (Friday...but still possible...
especially ovr area mountains and east of the Rio Grande. Expect
generally VFR conds all terms through period FEW080 SCT120
BKN250...but with periods of possible MVFR conds with isold/sct
SHRA/TSRA. Psbl BLDU to reduce VSBY to <1 mi 00Z- 06Z. Temp cigs
BKN/OVC060 in vcty of storms. Winds generally 260-290 10-18kts...but
poss outflow gusts to 45kts. Evwn less activity aft 18Z on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT NO STRONG FORCING MECHANISM EXCEPT
THERMAL AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED
TRIPLE DIGITS LOWLANDS AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN. HOT AND DRY WILL
PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE "UNCHARACTERISTICALLY" DRY FOR MID
JULY...MORE LIKE JUNE. THE WESTERLY WINDS, LOW RH VALUES AND HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 79 104  79 104 /  20   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           71 100  71 100 /  20  10  10  20
Las Cruces              70 101  71 101 /  20   0   0   0
Alamogordo              72 103  71 103 /  20   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              58  81  58  80 /  30  20  20  20
Truth or Consequences   72 100  71 100 /  20   0   0   0
Silver City             65  94  65  94 /  20   0   0   0
Deming                  70 102  71 101 /  20   0   0   0
Lordsburg               69 101  69 100 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      78 103  78 103 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City               71 103  71 103 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Hancock            77 104  76 105 /  20  10  10   0
Loma Linda              71  98  72  99 /  20   0   0   0
Fabens                  77 104  77 104 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            74 103  74 102 /  20   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          74 101  74 101 /  20   0   0   0
Jornada Range           69 101  69 101 /  20   0   0   0
Hatch                   70 104  70 104 /  20   0   0   0
Columbus                72 102  72 101 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande               72 103  72 103 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                 60  88  59  88 /  30  20  20  20
Mescalero               58  90  58  89 /  30  20  20  10
Timberon                57  87  57  87 /  30  20  20  20
Winston                 59  92  59  92 /  20  10  10   0
Hillsboro               67  98  67  98 /  20   0   0   0
Spaceport               70 101  69 101 /  20   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            57  95  58  94 /  20  10  10   0
Hurley                  65  96  65  95 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                   61 100  62  98 /  20   0   0   0
Mule Creek              58  98  59  96 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                 66  97  67  97 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                  68 101  69 101 /  20   0   0   0
Hachita                 68 101  68 101 /  20   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          68  98  68  98 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale              66  93  65  93 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

05 Rogash/20 Novlan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
130 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-091745-
UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/LOWER GILA RIVER VALLEY-LOWLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-
UPLANDS OF THE BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-EASTERN BLACK
RANGE FOOTHILLS-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-NORTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY-
SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN-
SOUTHERN TULAROSA BASIN-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY-
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO
MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-
130 PM MDT FRI JUL 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING. SEVERAL STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOSTLY HOT DRY WEATHER WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MAINLY HIGH
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RESULTING IN
STRESSFUL CONDITIONS FOR THOSE INVOLVED WITH OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OR FLOODING
TO THIS OFFICE AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

ROGASH