Winter Weather Advisory 8, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
338 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN
EVIDENT ON RADAR. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE OREGON COAST AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE HEARD ON THE DEL NORTE OR HUMBOLDT
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT WITH LOCATIONS NEAR CRESCENT CITY AND IN THE MOUNTAINS
GUSTING OVER 40 MPH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN A LINE OF HEAVIER CONVECTION TO GUST TO
NEAR 50 MPH FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COASTS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED IF
NEEDED TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND. BEHIND THE FRONT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RISING
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FLOOD LOW
LYING AREAS. THUS THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE REGION.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN...SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 5000 FEET AND 3000 FEET AHEAD OF AND BEHIND PASSING COLD
FRONTS...RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE LOWEST SNOW LEVELS LIKELY
OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL
LIKELY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY
WELL OVER A FOOT...HOWEVER SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW 5000 FEET ARE MUCH
MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE FLUCTUATING SNOW LEVELS. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME PERIODS FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000 FEET TO SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY MELTING RAINS...AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WHEN SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOWEST. IT WOULD NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A FEW FLAKES DOWN TO AROUND 3500 FEET
TONIGHT AS WELL...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY MELT QUICKLY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM. LONG STORY SHORT...GIVEN THAT THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS AT THE ELEVATIONS
THAT WOULD CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...THE FEW RESIDENTS
AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE
BACK OVER 5000 FEET AND A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MID WEEK.

.LONG TERM..WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...LITTLE WAS CHANGED IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS MEANS MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 5-WAVE
MODEL SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPLIT FLOW WITH A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS COULD BRING ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WON'T BE TILL LATE NEXT WEEK BUT
THERE IS STILL DISPARITY BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS AT THIS
TIME. STAY TUNED. KML

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALONG
THE DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COASTS. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
INTO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE RAIN THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONG EARLY THIS MORNING IN
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES...DECREASING BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE APPROACHING SYSTEMS BRING PERIODS OF
GALES TO THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR ANOTHER
QUICK HITTING FRONT THAT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 40 KT
MOSTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE, HOWEVER, AREAS NEAR SHORE AROUND POINT
SAINT GEORGE AND CAPE MENDOCINO CAN SEE GUSTS THIS HIGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS WILL EASE
SUBTLY AND BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. A GALE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT
FRONT FLEXES THE GRADIENT. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE OVER THE REGION PUSHING ADDITIONAL SYSTEMS TO OUR NORTH AND
GIVE THE COASTAL WATERS A BREAK FROM FRONTS. MEANWHILE, A WESTERLY
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY AND PEAK ON SUNDAY BRINGING NEARLY 20 FT
SEAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. ENP SUGGESTS THAT THIS SWELL WILL
BRING LARGE ENOUGH SURF TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. I HAVE A
SNEAKING SUSPICION THAT ENP AND NWPS MAY BE OVERDOING THE SWELL BY
COMBINING THE SHORT PERIOD WAVES WITH THE LONGER PERIOD ONES. THE
TIME PERIOD ALSO COINCIDES WITH A PASSING FRONT THAT SHOULD HIKE
UP SHORTER PERIOD WAVES (WHICH ARE CURRENTLY ABSENT FROM BOTH THE
NWPS AND ENP MODEL OUTPUT). BUT EITHER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT THE SEA
STATE IS STILL EXPECTED TO GET QUITE LARGE ON SUNDAY (AROUND 20
FT). STAY TUNED. KML

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING COULD RESULT IN
LOCAL FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS. LIGHT RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE NEXT PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DUE TO THE
CONTINUED RAIN THIS MAY BRING SOME RIVERS TO MONITOR OR LOW END
FLOOD STAGE LATE SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENT RAINFALL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THE NAVARRO RIVER WILL REACH FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS COULD IMPACT HWY 128. CURRENT FORECASTS BRING THE EEL, MAD
AND VAN DUZEN TO MONITOR STAGE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT HEIGHTS SO THESE WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT GETS CLOSER. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ001>004-076.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ003.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR PZZ470.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-470-475.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
544 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

CAZ002-131400-
MENDOCINO COAST-
544 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL ALLOW SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL ALLOW SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ003-131400-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
544 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL ALLOW SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL ALLOW SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

STRONG SOUTH WIND GUSTS ON EXPOSED RIDGES WILL BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ001-131400-
REDWOOD COAST-
544 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL ALLOW SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL ALLOW SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ076-131400-
MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
544 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL ALLOW SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
RAIN FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL ALLOW SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS TO RISE. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ004-131400-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-
544 AM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AT 4000 FEET OR HIGHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A WET
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AT 4000 FEET OR HIGHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT MAY FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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