Special Marine Warning 9, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
527 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERY
WEATHER AND COOL CONDITIONS TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS MAY BRING SOME
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS STARTED TO PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA AND SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. IR SAT
SHOWS SOME MORE SHOWERS OFF THE COAST SO THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. SOUTH WINDS WILL START TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT.
THESE WILL BRING SOME WARM ADVECTION AND SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
AROUND 4500 FEET BY MORNING.

THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE AREA AT THIS TIME. A COASTAL JET LOOKS TO
DEVELOP WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THE NAM12 SHOWS GUSTS TO 70 KT AT
850 MB OVER CRESCENT CITY. THESE ARE NOT ALL EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WARM ADVECTION. STILL THE WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REDWOOD COAST. WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE EXPOSED AREAS AND COASTAL HEADLANDS. A FEW GUSTS TO 60
MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL RIDGES. FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
MENDOCINO COAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY...BUT SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.5 INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES WITH
THE MAIN FRONT. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 4500 FT WITH THE
MAIN FRONT. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SO
HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LESS THAN AN INCH
OF SNOW EXPECTED DOWN TO 3000 FEET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
IN CASE THE SHOWERS ARE HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH A WEAK
FRONT MAY CLIP NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A 12 HOUR
PERIOD SOMETIME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS AND
70S IN INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS QUITE WEAK. RPA/MKK

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASE. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL NOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO SECONDARY FRONTAL SYSTEM HEADING OUR WAY.
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER
SHOWER MOVES THROUGH. COME FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
BE KNOCKING AT OUR DOOR. THIS WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
COASTAL AND MOUNTAINOUS AIRFIELDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT KCEC
AND KACV WILL SEE PEAK GUSTS RANGE FROM 25-40KTS WITH KCEC
POTENTIALLY HAVING SOME HIGHER GUSTS. TERMINALS THAT ARE INLAND
AND HIGHER UP...SUCH AS KNEELAND...WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS RANGE
FROM 30-50KTS. VALLEY TERMINALS PROBABLY WONT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WIND GUSTS. ACCOMPANIED WITH THE WIND WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING BEFORE A POTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS GALES WITH SOME
STORM FORCE GUSTS TO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MODEL DEPICTED WIND GUSTS SUGGEST THAT THESE STORM FORCE
GUSTS MAY BE ABUNDANT, HOWEVER, SHORT LIVED BEING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS SHOULD NOT NECESSITATE AN UPGRADE TO A
STORM WARNING BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS THESE WILL BE
HIGH END GALES. EITHER WAY WINDS WILL BE RIPPING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH LARGE, STEEP WAVES BUILDING IN RESPONSE. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, THE WESTERLY SWELL THAT WILL PEAK TODAY AT 16 TO 18 FT
AROUND 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ALLOWING THE STATE TO SETTLE THIS WEEKEND.  KML

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PST FRIDAY FOR
     CAZ001-003.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ450-470-475.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ450-470.

     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
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FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA/ZONEMAP.PNG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
330 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016

CAZ001-192330-
REDWOOD COAST-
330 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE ON COASTAL HEADLANDS AND RIDGE TOPS.

LARGE SURF TO AROUND 15 TO 20 FEET IS EXPECTED ON HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTY BEACHES TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ002-192330-
MENDOCINO COAST-
330 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON RIDGETOPS AND
EXPOSED COASTAL HEADLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

LARGE SURF TO AROUND 20 FEET IS EXPECTED ON HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COUNTY BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ003-192330-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
330 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON PST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
EXPECTED ON EXPOSED RIDGES...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST AND MOST EXPOSED PEAKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FRIDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL FROM AROUND
4500 FEET EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO AROUND 3500 FEET FRIDAY
EVENING...AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
3500 AND 4500 FEET WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ004-076-192330-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
330 PM PST THU FEB 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 4500 FEET
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO AROUND 3500 FEET FRIDAY EVENING...AND
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3500 AND 4500
FEET WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.