Coastal Flood Advisory 2, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1044 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS....A SERIES OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN...HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. BREAKS IN
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...FRIDAY...AND
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO BRING
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 10 PM A FEW SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA...BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END SO THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN
TRINITY COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED A FEW HOURS EARLY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A QUICK SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS
IS A FAST MOVING SMALL SYSTEM. ANY SUBTLE SHIFTS TO THE NORTH OR
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD CHANGE THE IMPACTS. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS SHOW MOST OF THE RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOCUSED NORTH
OF MENDOCINO COUNTY AND SOUTH OF THE OREGON BORDER. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DRY DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS MOVING INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY AND
SPREADING NORTH FAIRLY QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THERE WILL BE
SOUTHEAST WINDS SO THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHADOWING ON THE COAST
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THIS COULD SLOW THE START OF MOST OF THE
RAIN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THESE AREAS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE
AROUND 3000 TO 3500 FEET AND ABOVE MOST OF THE MAIN HIGHWAY
PASSES. SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THEY
SHOULD START TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. MKK

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...RIDGING WILL SHIFT OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN OF DRY
WEATHER BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS WETTER THAN THE ECMWF BRINGING SOME WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION TO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. BY
MONDAY THE TWO MODELS DIFFER IN THE TIMING OF THE RAIN WITH THE
GFS BRINGING THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND LATE MONDAY MORNING AND THE
ECMWF BRINGING IT OVERHEAD BY THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER WEATHER
MOVING IN BY TUESDAY. BEYOND THAT MODELS SHOW ANOTHER FRONT COMING
ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL HAVE LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING.
POPS WERE INCREASED ON MONDAY AND LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND
THAT EXCEPT TO BLEND WITH THE NEIGHBORS. KML

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF
MVFR OR IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT EXCEPT IN
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE IFR OR LIFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP...
INCLUDING AT UKI. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN HUMBOLDT AND
DEL NORTE COUNTIES WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ACV
AND CEC.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AS WINDS HAVE SIMMERED AND LARGE SEAS PERSIST. THE SEA STATE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ANOTHER SWELL PROPAGATES THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING THE SEA STATE TO 16 TO 20 FT THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING
WILL TAKE EFFECT BY 7 PM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES
WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SWELL
SUBSIDES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST. THEN EXPECT SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO RETURN FRIDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION. KML

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AS A BUILDING SWELL WITH BREAKERS AROUND 20 TO 24 FT ON
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS THREAT WILL
DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE SWELL
SUBSIDES. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AROUND HIGH TIDE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS MARGINAL
AND FRIDAY MORNING THE PREDICTED TIDE WILL BE HIGHER SO THE SURGE
MUST BE GREATER THAN 1 FT FOR NUISANCE FLOODING TO OCCUR AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY. WILL ALLOW THE NIGHT TIME CREW TO WATCH THE
OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANOTHER ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.

PREDICTED HIGH TIDES AT THE NORTH SPIT TIDE GAUGE...
THURSDAY: 7.45 FT AT 9:17 AM
FRIDAY: 7.68 FT AT 9:57 AM
SATURDAY: 7.84 FT AT 10:38 AM
SUNDAY: 7.91 FT AT 11:19 AM

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ001-002.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ410.

     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1102 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

CAZ004-080715-
UPPER TRINITY RIVER-
1102 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH RAIN...HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW...AND GUSTY RIDGETOP WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ001-080715-
REDWOOD COAST-
1102 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 24 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 24 FEET.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY THURSDAY
MORNING.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH RAIN AND GUSTY RIDGETOP
WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ003-080715-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-
1102 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH RAIN...HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW...AND GUSTY RIDGETOP WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ076-080715-
MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
1102 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH RAIN...HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW...AND GUSTY RIDGETOP WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ002-080715-
MENDOCINO COAST-
1102 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 24 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF 20 TO 24 FEET.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WITH RAIN AND GUSTY RIDGETOP
WINDS IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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