Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
649 PM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

The next 12 hours look to be a bit busy as storms persist across the
region ahead of, and eventually along, a cold front that will sweep
through far eastern Kansas and Missouri later tonight. Convection
from overnight lingered into the morning hours across southern
Kansas and into central Missouri bringing cooling rains and
thunderstorms to much of east central Kansas into central and
northeast Missouri. Additionally, convection got going again mid-
morning near the Iowa-Missouri state line; lifting north through the
morning and afternoon hours.

Stepping back to look at the big picture, the convection across our
region is occurring ahead of a frontal boundary wallowing this
afternoon across central Kansas northeast through southeast Nebraska
into western Iowa, emanating from a surface low in Kansas that is a
reflection of a larger synoptic level trough over the Rockies. It is
this large trough it will push the frontal boundary southeast trough
eastern Kansas and Missouri tonight. On the up side, after the front
pushes through any lingering storms will quickly dissipate leaving
behind dry conditions and cool temperatures for Friday --highs in the
60s-- and through the weekend --highs in the 70s--. Next chance of
widespread storms will likely wait till mid to late next week.

For this evenings storms...the environment ahead of the storms is
generally sufficient for severe weather, but due to convection that
has percolated ahead of the front today instability is not
particularly robust. The low levels of the atmosphere have remained
a bit stable in area due to the cloud cover from the convection
earlier today. That said, there is some instability to work with
especially as you get above the boundary layer, as evident by
comparing surface based CAPE (~500 to 1000J/KG) and MUCAPE (~1500
to 2000 J/KG). So, while there is sufficient instability as storms
move in, any strong storms that do get going will have no problem
finding the organizing shear as 0-6KM values are running around 50
knots this afternoon thanks to the 40 to 50 knot low level jet
oriented parallel to the front across eastern Kansas and western
Missouri. Expectations are that individual super cells will develop
near the front across Kansas, moving northeast, before congealing
into a line of storms that will progress across western Missouri into
northeast and central Missouri late tonight/early Friday morning. As
such, the severe threat looks highest for eastern Kansas and the
first couple rows of counties into Missouri through about 9 PM
tonight with large hail, damaging winds our primary threats; however
isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out. Otherwise, as the line of
storms push east later tonight the severe potential will transit to
only threats from hail and damaging winds for areas of central to
northeast Missouri. Lastly, with precipitable water values running
over one inch, any and ever storm tonight will be able to put down a
quick inch of rain. This will likely lead to flooding issues along
area rivers, creeks and streams, that are near flood stage already;
though flash flooding looks very limited as the storms are expected
to be progressive enough to mitigate the potential.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 649 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

TAFs this hour are based on timing of a line of thunderstorms
currently moving through eastern Kansas. These storms will affect all
the terminals along the Kansas-Missouri state line between 01Z and
03Z. Once the line of storms have passed the gusty south wind ahead
of them will become a gusty north-northwest wind behind. However, by
mid to late Friday morning skies will be clearing out and the gusty
winds will subside as the pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
520 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS
 THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE
 STORMS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES...WILL BE
 NEAR AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL
748 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ020-021-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054-
070300-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-BATES-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...PAOLA...OSAWATOMIE...
LOUISBURG...PLEASANTON...LA CYGNE...MOUND CITY...WATHENA...
ELWOOD...TROY...HIGHLAND...FORT LEAVENWORTH...LEAVENWORTH...
LANSING...KANSAS CITY KANSAS...OVERLAND PARK...STANLEY...OLATHE...
SHAWNEE...LENEXA...ST. JOSEPH AIRPORT...ST. JOSEPH...CAMERON...
PLATTSBURG...LATHROP...PARKVILLE...PLATTE CITY...RIVERSIDE...
WEATHERBY LAKE...WESTON...GLADSTONE...LIBERTY...
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...RICHMOND...LAWSON...KANSAS CITY...
INDEPENDENCE...ODESSA...HIGGINSVILLE...LEXINGTON...CONCORDIA...
BELTON...RAYMORE...HARRISONVILLE...PLEASANT HILL...WARRENSBURG...
BUTLER...ADRIAN...RICH HILL...CLINTON...WINDSOR
748 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL BRING WITH IT A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS...WHICH WILL
PERSIST FOR UP TO AN HOUR AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED THROUGH.
THESE WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH FROM THE SOUTH...POSSIBLY
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT AND MAY OBSCURE YOUR VISION IF IS
ALSO RAINING AT THE TIME.

CUTTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
807 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

KSZ057-103>105-MOZ028-029-037-043-070145-
WYANDOTTE KS-MIAMI KS-JOHNSON KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-JACKSON MO-CLAY MO-
PLATTE MO-CASS MO-
807 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEAVENWORTH...
WYANDOTTE...JOHNSON...MIAMI...WESTERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM
CDT...

AT 806 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LINWOOD TO NEAR LANE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST
AT 55 MPH. AN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION IN OTTAWA KANSAS REPORTED 50
MPH WINDS WITH THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KANSAS CITY...OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...LEE'S SUMMIT...SHAWNEE...
LENEXA...LEAWOOD...RAYTOWN...GLADSTONE...GRANDVIEW...BELTON...PRAIRIE
VILLAGE...RAYMORE...GARDNER...MERRIAM...MISSION...BONNER SPRINGS...DE
SOTO...PAOLA AND PARKVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 7.
 INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 410 AND 423.
 INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 7.
 INTERSTATE 35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 200 AND 235.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 4.
 INTERSTATE 635 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 12.
 INTERSTATE 470 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 6.
 INTERSTATE 435 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 15...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 63 AND 83.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 206 AND 226.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3898 9506 3899 9507 3898 9509 3896 9508
      3898 9516 3896 9517 3897 9519 3907 9518
      3921 9458 3890 9440 3847 9454 3848 9461
      3845 9461 3842 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 255DEG 46KT 3902 9514 3849 9514

LEIGHTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
914 PM CDT THU OCT 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BASEHOR                 39.14N 94.94W
10/06/2016                   LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN WITH SUB-SEVERE WINDS. 47 MPH WIND GUST
            REPORTED IN TONGANOXIE.

&&

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
934 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

MOZ031-032-039-040-046-070300-
CHARITON MO-COOPER MO-HOWARD MO-CARROLL MO-SALINE MO-
934 PM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CARROLL...
NORTHWESTERN COOPER...EASTERN SALINE...WESTERN HOWARD AND CHARITON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 934 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLATER TO 11 MILES WEST OF PILOT GROVE.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...BOONVILLE...SLATER...SALISBURY...GLASGOW...NEW FRANKLIN...
BRUNSWICK...KEYTESVILLE...GILLIAM...NELSON...MIAMI...MENDON...
BLACKWATER...DE WITT...FRANKLIN...ARROW ROCK...TRIPLETT...DALTON...
WIEN AND LAMINE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 80 AND
103.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 9273 3889 9305 3892 9305 3893 9306
      3893 9317 3894 9317 3957 9325 3970 9271
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 243DEG 36KT 3922 9310 3886 9313

LEIGHTON

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