Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

October 4, 2016Andrew County, Holt County, Nodaway County, Missouri; Doniphan County, Kansas

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at Oct 4, 2016, 9:09 PM CDT for Andrew County, Holt County, Nodaway County, Missouri; Doniphan County, Kansas. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 4, 2016, 9:09 PM CDT (02:09 UTC)
Expired: Oct 4, 2016, 10:00 PM CDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO

Counties Doniphan County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Holt County, MO, Nodaway County, MO

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 616 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1248 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 397 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 510 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.3
Supercell composite: 9.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 4, 7:01 PM CDT, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 4, 7:01 PM CDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
701 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 355 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

Southwesterly winds have pushed the scattered showers into the
western part of the CWA. Although this line of activity has been
weakening throughout the day, it will begin to ramp up again this
evening as the surface cold front moves into the area. This line of
storms could be strong to severe especially further west near Topeka
due to sufficient shear and instability. The line should weaken as it
approaches our area as there is not as much instability, but isolated
damaging winds and hail are possible. The line of storms will move
out of the area by Wednesday morning.

Expect dry and warm conditions for Wednesday during the day with
highs in the low 80s. In the afternoon, a warm front will begin to
push north into Iowa and stall out. This along with a strengthening
low-level jet will bring us another round of showers and
thunderstorms overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Some storms could be
strong due to strong shear, MU CAPE, and low-level helicity.
Therefore, damaging winds and hail are again possible.

Storm chances continue Thursday as the upper level trough finally
approaches the area and begins pushing the stalled cold front in Iowa
south. Again, we could see strong to severe storms develop during the
afternoon Thursday with the main concerns being damaging winds and
hail.

The cold front will move through the area by Friday morning and will
be followed by drier air and highs in the low 60s. This pattern will
continue into early next week with temperatures in the low 70s by
Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 700 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

A band of strong convection will track quickly from west to east
through the forecast area overnight. The storms will reach northwest
MO first by 02z. Expect VFR ceilings except in stronger cores where
MVFR ceilings will exist. MVFR visibilities with the storms except
for pockets of brief IFR visibilities. Storms will be strongest over
far western MO and adjacent eastern KS this evening and weaken as
they progress eastward overnight. Should take no longer than 1-2
hours for the strongest portion of the line to move past a given
location.

MVFR fog possible starting a few hours before sunrise with any fog
dissipating by 14z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Grana
Aviation...MJ

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 4, 4:57 AM CDT, 16 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
457 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
457 AM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
 EASTERN KS AND FAR WESTERN MO.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 4, 9:09 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
909 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ102-MOZ001-002-011-012-020-050300-
DONIPHAN KS-BUCHANAN MO-NODAWAY MO-ATCHISON MO-ANDREW MO-HOLT MO-
909 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DONIPHAN...SOUTHEASTERN
ATCHISON...ANDREW...NODAWAY...CENTRAL BUCHANAN AND HOLT COUNTIES
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 908 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR FAIRFAX TO NEAR WHITE CLOUD TO NEAR
MUSCOTAH. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOSEPH...MARYVILLE...SAVANNAH...WATHENA...ELWOOD...MOUND CITY...
HIGHLAND...TROY...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...COUNTRY CLUB...OREGON...
BURLINGTON JUNCTION...MAITLAND...AMAZONIA...SKIDMORE...FOREST CITY...
CRAIG...FILLMORE...WHITE CLOUD AND DENTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 101.
 INTERSTATE 229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4021 9466 3963 9486 3961 9505 3962 9506
      3962 9510 3965 9512 3965 9534 4000 9534
      4000 9531 4003 9535 4004 9542 4012 9539
      4018 9548 4024 9547 4026 9554 4054 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 249DEG 39KT 4037 9546 4003 9537 3959 9552

LEIGHTON

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 4, 10:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan, Clay, Clinton, Platte	27 min
Oct 4, 9:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Atchison, Johnson, Leavenworth	42 min
Oct 4, 10:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Linn, Miami	32 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2016 Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.