Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1159 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 322 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

Temperatures this afternoon have reached well into the mid to upper
90s across the area with heat indices well into the century mark.
Noticeable changes are on the way however with much cooler
temperatures in store for tomorrow and into next week. This is in
thanks to a well-advertised pattern change, starting with a frontal
boundary traversing the forecast area tonight.

Current obs indicate the boundary is knocking on our doorstep, laid
out across southeastern NE into west-central IA. Ahead of the front,
some showers and thunderstorms have developed and will continue to
track toward and into NW MO as the afternoon progresses. Nocturnal
LLJ will crank up again tonight and with decent moisture availability
as well as the front to work with, storm chances will be on the
increase this evening into the overnight hours. With marginal shear
values, the primary concern tonight will be the potential for
flooding issues should storms containing moderate to heavy rain train
over the same areas and/or have slow storm motions as the front slows
down in its southward trek. However, gusty winds in some stronger
storms will be possible as well. This nocturnal pattern looks to
repeat throughout the weekend with the question being where the
concentration/cluster of storms will develop. The models have been
struggling to agree on the finer details of these sorts of situations
thus far this summer and this event is no exception. Saturday night
looks particularly possible for a bust scenario across this forecast
area should the bulk of the precip go north into NE and IA with some
models indicating as such. Of course, further out in the forecast
period, the confidence in the details drops as the models diverge on
solutions, although a period of unsettled weather looks to continue
well into next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1159 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

A few isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible in the
vicinity of the terminals through Friday morning as a cold front
pushes southward through the region; however, the bulk of the
precipitation associated with it will likely remain to the east,
therefore have just stuck with VCTS at all TAF sites tonight. Winds
are currently veering to the north northwest behind the front and
will then more gradually veer to the northeast through daybreak, and
while speeds could be briefly gusty behind the front, speeds should
then lessen to around 10 kts or lower for the remainder of the
period. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible again Friday
evening and during the overnight hours, but is too uncertain to
mention yet.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...lg
Aviation...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
530 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1021 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

MOZ004-005-013-014-050400-
HARRISON MO-GENTRY MO-DE KALB MO-DAVIESS MO-
1021 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON...
NORTHWESTERN DAVIESS...SOUTHEASTERN GENTRY AND NORTHEASTERN DEKALB
COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1020 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF PATTONSBURG...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF ALBANY...MOVING
EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BETHANY...PATTONSBURG...COFFEY AND MCFALL.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 76 AND
89.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9435 4017 9442 4028 9404 4007 9393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 252DEG 23KT 4012 9427

JULY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

MOZ006-007-016-050500-
PUTNAM MO-SULLIVAN MO-MERCER MO-
1122 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...NORTHERN
SULLIVAN AND SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1121 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES EAST OF PRINCETON...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILAN...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWTOWN...POLLOCK...HARRIS AND LEMONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9297 4024 9336 4027 9337 4026 9338
      4026 9344 4027 9344 4039 9349 4052 9309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 258DEG 25KT 4034 9338

JULY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1210 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

MOZ007-008-017-050600-
PUTNAM MO-ADAIR MO-SCHUYLER MO-
1210 AM CDT FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SCHUYLER...SOUTHEASTERN
PUTNAM AND ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

AT 1210 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF NOVINGER...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KIRKSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIRKSVILLE...QUEEN CITY...NOVINGER...GREENTOP...BRASHEAR...MILLARD...
WORTHINGTON...LIVONIA AND KIRKSVILLE REGIONAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4013 9239 4004 9285 4038 9285 4050 9270
      4046 9235 4023 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 306DEG 27KT 4035 9276

CDB