Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 326 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Complicated short term forecast with several boundaries around the
region, plenty of CAPE, and increasing deep layer shear. Latest
AMDAR soundings show a poorly mixed boundary layer and thus very
weak low-level lapse rates at MCI; however, the airmass now lifting
northeastward into the KC metro appears to have more surface-based
instability, evident by the higher temperatures and appearance of
shallow cumulus within the last hour. An outflow boundary continues
to trail and sink very slowly to the south across central KS and
central MO south of our forecast area, but another psuedo warm front
which is on the door step of the KC metro and lifting northward
could also be a factor in storm development later this evening. In
addition, the "cold" front sinking southward out of southeast NE
earlier today has stalled near STJ, and may become a bit more
convergent as the northeastward moving warm front joins up this
evening. Storm initiation looks possible later this afternoon along
any one of these boundaries, especially as the low-level jet begins
to increase after sunset and provides a little additional lift for
convection. Should storms initiate, severe weather will be possible
in an environment characterized by ~3000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-40 kts
of deep layer shear, and a decent amount of dry air aloft plus DCAPE
in excess of 1200 J/kg may support straight-line winds over any
other severe weather threat.

Storms will push south southeastward with time due to the combo of
cold pool propagation and an east-southeastward moving shortwave
trough, eventually departing the CWA during the early morning hours
but depending a bit on how far north storms develop tonight. The
effective cold front/outflow will sink into southern KS through
southern MO by Friday morning, and should keep conditions quiet for
Friday. Any storms that develop Friday afternoon along the boundary
look like they will remain southwest of the forecast area, and may
have to wait until Saturday afternoon when the front begins a north-
ward push and diurnal instability builds along the front, possibly
allowing for afternoon and evening convection. Temperatures will be
just slightly cooler this weekend due to light northerly winds on
Friday and possible cloud cover/convection on Saturday afternoon,
but will still be fairly steamy in the upper 80s to low 90s with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Ridging briefly moves in for Sunday and keeps precipitation chances
a bit lower through Monday evening, when southwesterly flow begins
to return to the High and eventually central Plains. An active, warm
pattern will then continue through the rest of the forecast period,
and was not able to identify many periods where at least 30-40 PoPs
were inappropriate beyond Monday night.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 611 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

Short term concern is the development of thunderstorms through the
early evening hours. As of now, storms may develop along a boundary
just south of KMCI initially. These storms will eventually move to
the southeast through the late evening. For now, will mention VCTS
given the southern focus of this activity, though may need to adjust
forecast should storms currently over Nebraska enter the terminals
from the NW late this evening. Activity should taper off overnight
with VFR conditions prevailing through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Welsh

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
329 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-082030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
329 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

 ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION TO
DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE GUSTY TO
POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL, AS WELL AS A TORNADIC THREAT, CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KSZ057-105-MOZ043-053-080530-
MIAMI KS-JOHNSON KS-BATES MO-CASS MO-
1154 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI...CASS AND NORTHWESTERN BATES COUNTIES UNTIL 1230
AM CDT...

AT 1153 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LOUISBURG...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARRISONVILLE...PAOLA...SPRING HILL...PECULIAR...LOUISBURG...
ADRIAN...GARDEN CITY...ARCHIE...DREXEL...CLEVELAND...FREEMAN...
EAST LYNNE...LAKE ANNETTE...WEST LINE...CHILES...
BUCYRUS AND WAGSTAFF.

LAT...LON 3856 9486 3878 9481 3872 9416 3833 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 0453Z 280DEG 48KT 3865 9478

WELSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

KSZ057-MOZ043-080545-
MIAMI KS-CASS MO-
1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MIAMI AND CENTRAL
CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1212 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER LAKE ANNETTE...OR NEAR PECULIAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RAYMORE...HARRISONVILLE...PLEASANT HILL...GREENWOOD...PECULIAR...
GARDEN CITY...LAKE WINNEBAGO...CLEVELAND...FREEMAN...EAST LYNNE...
LAKE ANNETTE AND WEST LINE.

LAT...LON 3851 9459 3868 9468 3884 9435 3884 9429
      3852 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 0512Z 242DEG 20KT 3866 9451

WELSH