Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
643 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 352 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Weak surface trough currently over northern Missouri drawing
southerly winds across the eastern half of the CWA, with northerly
winds nosing into northwestern Missouri along the leading edge of a
surface ridge. Expect cooler and drier air to move into the area
behind this cold front. Already there have been a few marginally
strong storms forming within a fairly juicy atmosphere characterized
by temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower
70s. The resultant instability appears to be in the 1500 to 2500
J/kg MLCAPE range. Within the ambient northwest flow aloft there
will be a shortwave trough digging into the area through the
evening. This will help to supply some mid level support for ascent
over this aforementioned charged up atmosphere. Effective bulk shear
values of around 30 to 40 kts, especially in northern and central
Missouri could help aid in updraft maintenance, bringing a chance
for organized and possibly severe thunderstorms. Hail and wind are
the primary concerns considering the lack of low level flow at the
surface. By later tonight the frontal boundary should be south and
west of the forecast area, lending to mostly dry conditions through
the day on Friday. The best and likely only chance for rain will be
across southeastern/east central Kansas and southwestern/west
central Missouri, but overall it appears rain will be mostly located
across southern Kansas for Friday.

That frontal boundary will then lift northward on Friday night and
Saturday morning in response to a shortwave trough working its way
into the flow from the Pacific southwest. As the trough works
through the 4-corners region it will help lift that boundary north.
Supplemented with moisture on the order of 2+ inches of precipitable
water ingredients will be in place for a fairly prolonged moderate
to heavy rain event across the area. The boundary itself will likely
wobble a bit to the north and south through the weekend, but will
likely remain between HWY 36 and Interstate 44. As the trough slowly
meanders out of the mountainous southwest and into the high/central
plains it will generally trek along the boundary, which will cause
widespread moderate to heavy rain. With mid level flow favoring a
direction generally along and/or parallel to the boundary storms
will continue to form and train over the same area through Saturday
and most of Sunday. The result of the high moisture as well as the
mesoscale factors of the low level focus for storms will likely be a
widespread area of 3 to 6 inch rain amounts with perhaps some
localized areas of larger amounts. Confidence is growing to a medium
to high level that this prolonged moderate to heavy rain will occur
generally along the I-70/Missouri River corridor plus or minus 50
miles either side (north or south) of that corridor. With a decent
amount of confidence in river and stream flooding as well as some
flash flooding from rain rates approaching 2+ inches per hour for
periods of time have continue the Flash Flood Watch through Sunday
night, and have added 3 counties to the watch, namely Linn (KS),
Bates, and Henry. By Sunday night the trough should be off to the
east and out of the area, thus gradually ending chances for rain
from west to east.

For the 4th of July holiday the boundary should be south of the
area, and some shortwave ridging will take place over the forecast
area, which should minimize chance for rain for Independence day.
The next system could bring some rain back to the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Thunderstorms in the area currently show no immediate threat of
directly impacting MCI, MKC, and IXD; however, a small cluster is
headed toward STJ as of this writing. That said, have introduced a
TEMPO line to account for the terminal likely seeing a drop in visbys
due to moderate to potentially heavy rainfall with these
thunderstorms. Once the sun sets this evening, storm chances diminish
and VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all four terminals.
A wind shift has/is in the process of occurring at the terminals as a
boundary moves through the area. Northerly winds will dominate
tonight, becoming more easterly tomorrow.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Sunday night
     for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through late Sunday night
     for MOZ011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...lg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
517 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011030-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
517 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STORMS
 COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

 WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLASH
 FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MOZ014-015-023-302245-
LIVINGSTON MO-GRUNDY MO-DAVIESS MO-
519 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...
SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY AND EASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 519 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
JAMESPORT...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF GALLATIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...JAMESON...LOCK SPRINGS AND SPRING HILL.

LAT...LON 4005 9408 4010 9384 3984 9347 3979 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 315DEG 35KT 3998 9385

WELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRENTON                 40.08N 93.62W
06/30/2016                   GRUNDY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE SNAPPED IN TRENTON. NO OTHER DAMAGE IS
            REPORTED AND WIND ESTIMATES WERE BELOW 40 MPH. THE POLE
            WAS REPORTED TO BE IN POOR CONDITION SO WINDS WERE LIKELY
            SUBSEVERE.

&&

JL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
616 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MOZ031-032-039-302345-
CHARITON MO-CARROLL MO-SALINE MO-
616 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CARROLL...NORTH
CENTRAL SALINE AND CENTRAL CHARITON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 616 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HALE...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROOKFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SALISBURY...BRUNSWICK...KEYTESVILLE...HALE...BOSWORTH...MIAMI...
MENDON...DE WITT...SUMNER...ROTHVILLE...TRIPLETT AND DALTON.

LAT...LON 3930 9322 3960 9341 3962 9337 3962 9327
      3963 9326 3965 9328 3966 9327 3966 9328
      3971 9318 3971 9310 3943 9270 3941 9270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 314DEG 39KT 3961 9326

WELSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
701 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

MOZ031-039-010030-
CARROLL MO-SALINE MO-
701 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL AND WESTERN
SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 701 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MALTA BEND...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARSHALL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...MALTA BEND...WAKENDA...MIAMI...
MOUNT LEONARD AND GRAND PASS.

LAT...LON 3910 9303 3901 9339 3919 9349 3923 9349
      3922 9350 3927 9353 3928 9349 3925 9349
      3929 9347 3935 9326
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 325DEG 35KT 3920 9329

WELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
711 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GILLIAM                 39.23N 93.00W
06/30/2016                   SALINE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE BRANCH FELL AND BROUGHT DOWN POWER LINE.

&&

JWELSH

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