Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
602 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 250 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Thunderstorms have developed early this morning across south central
NE/north central KS in the vicinity of an elevated cold front that
stretches from northern KS into central MO. Water vapor imagery shows
a weak upper-level wave over central NE that is providing an enhanced
area of lift for this convection, and this feature is progged to
start dropping more south than east this morning. This should keep
most shower and thunderstorm activity to our west later this morning,
mostly across central KS. However, with the elevated boundary
stretching well to the east toward central MO, there's still a
slight chance that an isolated shower or storm could develop along
this feature through the morning hours as it drops south into the
Missouri Ozarks.

Cold front dropping in from the north will provide much more
comfortable temperatures for the next several days with highs in the
lower to middle 80s through Sunday. Today and tomorrow will feel
particularly comfortable with dewpoints only in the upper 50s and
lower 60s before moisture starts to increase later this week.

An upper ridge over the Rockies will gradually deamplify through the
end of the week, placing the area in an active northwest-flow
pattern beginning Wednesday and continuing into the holiday weekend.
Low-level ridging to the east will keep the airmass fairly dry on
Wednesday so that any precipitation should be light and focused
mainly across eastern KS and points west. This ridging will push east
Wednesday night and Thursday allowing for better precipitation
chances to spread eastward into much of the forecast area.

Active northwest flow continues Friday and into the weekend, when
a stream of Gulf moisture could set the stage for periods of heavy
rain. Highest heavy rain potential will be focused near a quasi-
stationary boundary which is progged to settle across southern KS
into the Ozarks Friday and Saturday and then lift north early next
week. Both GFS and ECMWF hint at several inches of rain for some
areas over the weekend, and this does not seem unrealistic given the
amount of moisture transport that will be feeding into the boundary.
Current indications are that the heaviest rain will fall to the south
of I-70, but there's plenty of time for this to change.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Thunderstorm complex dropping southeast into northeast KS will likely
hold together for a couple of more hours before slowly weakening
later this morning. Most likely areas to be affected are the Johnson
Co KS airports and points south, although more isolated/scattered
storms could continue to develop as far north as STJ over the next
few hours. This activity will clear the area by noon with VFR area-
wide for the remainder of the period. Light precipitation could
redevelop late tonight across central/eastern KS, but most of this
should stay west of the KC area.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...Hawblitzel

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
505 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
505 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TUESDAY, ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE KC METRO AREA.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
606 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

MOZ012-013-020-281130-
BUCHANAN MO-ANDREW MO-DE KALB MO-
606 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW...
SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB AND NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM
CDT...

AT 606 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOSEPH...COUNTRY CLUB...CLARKSDALE...COSBY AND HELENA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 53.

LAT...LON 3994 9445 3975 9459 3974 9460 3980 9483
      3996 9475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1106Z 284DEG 21KT 3987 9475

HAWBLITZEL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
639 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

MOZ013-281215-
DE KALB MO-
639 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTY UNTIL 715
AM CDT...

AT 639 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CLARKSDALE...OR 7 MILES WEST OF MAYSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAYSVILLE...CLARKSDALE AND AMITY.

LAT...LON 3979 9459 3993 9459 3992 9427 3975 9430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1139Z 284DEG 21KT 3985 9449

HAWBLITZEL