Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2016
Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO
NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at Jun 15, 2016, 2:10 AM CDT for Bates County, Missouri. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 15, 2016, 2:10 AM CDT (07:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 15, 2016, 3:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 50 min
- Issued by
- NWS Kansas City, MO
County Bates County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 140 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2338 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1271 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 20 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 24 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 81 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 15, 12:00 AM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 15, 12:00 AM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1200 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
.Discussion...
Issued at 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
Water vapor imagery shows a distinct wave that is currently moving
into northwestern Missouri. This can be tracked back to convection
over southwestern KS/northwestern OK from last night. Subsidence
behind the wave will make it very hard to initiate convection. But,
weak surface convergence associated with a modified dryline or
surface trough over eastern KS and NE may still be enough to
initiate convection later this afternoon which may then track into
the area. But confidence is fairly low that this will happen given
the still flat CU field from capping noted on latest aircraft
soundings into Kansas City International. If convection can't
develop during the afternoon, then it may take the effects of the
low level jet to enhance things ahead of the weak surface boundary.
But models are very inconsistent in placing and intensity of the low
level jet. The NAM focuses a portion of the LLJ over eastern KS and
subsequently develops intense convection. The GFS is weaker but
focuses its LLJ farther north with weaker overall convection that
tracks southeastward through the forecast area. Convection allowing
models don't develop anything until the upper level forcing moves
well east of the KC metro area. Given the huge amount of uncertainty
and overall poor confidence that anything will develop, just can't
justify going anything higher than slight chance to low chance PoPs.
So this is what was depicted with this forecast for this evening and
tonight. If storms do develop, there is a decent chance they will
become severe as there is ample instability and marginal shear of
roughly 30 to 35 kts.
Outside of convective chances this evening, the forecast looks very
hot. The combination of heat and humidity may not be in place
Wednesday afternoon. So even though highs look to be in the mid to
upper 90s, heat indices will be in the 100 to 102 range. Thursday
however, is an entirely different animal. Dewpoints in the 70s will
move back into the area with temperatures similar to Wednesday. This
results in heat index values climbing to close to 110. It's likely a
heat advisory will be issued for much of the forecast area to
account for this. But after coordination with neighboring offices,
will hold off until later updates. This heat will likely then
persist into the weekend. A very strong 600 decameter ridge at 500
mb will spread through the area. This suggests temperatures will be
in the upper 90s, if not approaching the century mark. Have
increased temperatures a bit above the forecast initialization given
this anticipation. With humidity still being oppressive, heat indices
between 105 and 110 are very possible through the weekend. If this
forecast continues to trend this way, heat warnings will need to be
considered, especially for the metro area.
The ridge breaks a little heading into next week as it shifts to the
west. This increases the potential for convection to develop along
the periphery of the ridge, mainly across the northern to
northeastern portions of the forecast area.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
Small cluster of convection over east central KS is expected to
dissipate as it moves through west central MO early this morning.
Looks like all three Kansas City TAF sites will be affected to
differing degrees with KMKC having the best chance of briefly seeing
MVFR visibilities with a brief downpour. After this convection ends
the rest of the forecast looks benign and VFR with nearly cloudless
skies.
&&
.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057-060-
103>105.
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ020>022-
028>032-037>039-043>045-053-054.
&&
Discussion...CDB
Aviation...MJHazardous weather outlook, Jun 14, 5:12 AM CDT, 20 hours 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 512 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-151015- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 512 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH A LOWER END CHANCE AT A TORNADO OR TWO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS TO BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE 100 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 15, 1:36 AM CDT, 34 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 136 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 MOZ053-150715- BATES MO- 136 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BATES COUNTY UNTIL 215 AM CDT... AT 135 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HUME...OR 8 MILES EAST OF PLEASANTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BUTLER...RICH HILL...HUME...FOSTER AND WORLAND. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. && LAT...LON 3822 9461 3836 9411 3809 9411 3808 9461 TIME...MOT...LOC 0635Z 258DEG 32KT 3815 9457 LEIGHTON
Special weather statement, Jun 15, 2:10 AM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
210 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
MOZ053-054-150800-
HENRY MO-BATES MO-
210 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BATES AND
SOUTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...
AT 209 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RICH HILL...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUTLER...RICH HILL...MONTROSE AND ROCKVILLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
&&
LAT...LON 3805 9413 3806 9413 3805 9415 3807 9437
3825 9438 3836 9389 3821 9389 3821 9405
3804 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 0709Z 269DEG 24KT 3816 9429
LEIGHTONThe office that day
Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 8:04 PM CDT | Heat Advisory | EAX | Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Chariton and 10 more | 23 hr |
| Jun 15, 1:36 AM CDT | Special Weather Statement | EAX | Bates | 39 min |
| Jun 15, 3:46 AM CDT | Excessive Heat Watch | EAX | Clay, Jackson, Platte | 11 hr |
| Jun 15, 3:46 AM CDT | Heat Advisory | EAX | Andrew, Atchison, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll and 25 more | 64 hr |
| Jun 15, 2:44 PM CDT | Excessive Heat Warning | EAX | Bates, Cass, Clay, Jackson, Platte | 20 hr |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2016Every special weather statement in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.