Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Short Term (Today through Sunday):

The main concern in the short term is for the potential for
additional heavy rainfall leading to or exacerbating ongoing
flooding. There is also a lesser concern for the potential for a
few strong storms tonight.

This afternoon, a shortwave which is rounding the base of an upper
level trough, centered over eastern Colorado, is lifting northward
across sern KS/swrn MO. Showers and isolated thunderstorms have
begin to develop across the area. Storms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity as we continue into the evening hours. Shear
across the area is weak however there is a moderate amount of
instability across the area. Consequently, a few storms could become
strong but no more than perhaps an isolated severe storm is
expected. What is of a bigger concern is the continued high PWAT
values of 1.25"-1.6" that exist across the area. This will lead to
storms which will be very efficient rainfall producers. Consequently
have continued the areal flood watch through 12Z tomorrow morning,
especially considering antecedent rainfall and ongoing flooding.

This afternoon and area of severe storms is developing to the west
of the area. These storms are expected to progress eastward later
tonight and move into the in a weakened state but will provide
another shot at mod-hvy rainfall. A third round of storms will be
possible overnight as the upper level trough moves into northern
Kansas and an associated surface low lifts into the region.

The upper level trough moves into the Upper Midwest tomorrow
forcing a cold front into the area. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop with higher chances near the IA/MO border with
lower chances further south. The upper trough will finally lift
northeastward into the western Great Lakes and conditions dry out
for Saturday and Sunday. Expect highs on Sunday in the low to mid
80s.

Extended Term: (Sunday night through Friday):

The extended period continues to look unsettled. The upper level
pattern will look like a carbon copy of the set up and the beginning
of this week with a upper level trough over the southwestern CONUS
and southwesterly flow across the area. A series of shortwaves are
expected to eject out from the southwestern CONUS trough and move
towards the area from Sunday night through the middle of next week
continuing scattered thunderstorm chances. The upper level trough
finally moves out into the central Plains by Thursday and slowly
moves into the area by the end of the week continuing thunderstorm
chances. Temperatures should range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s
through the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Scattered showers and t-storms will be possible over the next several
hours. A line of storms across central KS will translate eastward
through the evening. Hi-res models time this line to move into the
terminals between 06-09Z. As the upper level trough moves through the
region, scattered rain showers are likely on the backside of the
trough through mid-morning.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ001>004-
     011>013-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...PMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-281845-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
136 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS ON SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
708 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

MOZ006-015-280045-
GRUNDY MO-MERCER MO-
708 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MERCER AND
NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

AT 708 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SPICKARD...OR 13 MILES NORTH OF TRENTON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH THIS STORM AND IT IS
BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WARNING.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPICKARD...MODENA AND MILL GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 9364 4022 9374 4042 9374 4035 9349
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 196DEG 13KT 4026 9367

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TSTM WND GST     SPICKARD                40.24N 93.59W
05/27/2016  E60 MPH          GRUNDY             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RELAYED VIA GRUNDY COUNTY EM

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
818 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TORNADO          1 S BRIMSON             40.13N 93.74W
05/27/2016                   GRUNDY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIEF TORNADO...NO DAMAGE REPORTED. DUST SWIRL REPORTED
            ON GROUND.

&&

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
857 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             SPICKARD                40.24N 93.59W
05/27/2016  E1.00 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED BY SPICKARD FIRE DEPT

&&

32

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