Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1154 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 411 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

Strong surface low over SE Nebraska has caused warm/moist air
advection into the area, with a warm sector characterized by
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s and dewpoints in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Cloud cover over the area has prevented
robust destabilization; however, there is enough instability present
to produce a few thunderstorms this evening, some strong to severe.
Expect some modest increase in instability with time as another hour
or two of potential heating within breaks in the clouds. With deep
layer shear approaching 35 to 45 kts through the night the
CAPE/shear relationship should be adequate to get a few strong
updrafts, and perhaps some severe storms. As of 20z and 21z winds
within the warm sector have veered a bit to around 200 degrees and
that should mitigate some of the low level turning, and might even
mitigate some of the convergence along the dry line, which is
running from SE Nebraska down to central Oklahoma. As the night
progresses expect storms that form along the dryline to eventually
congeal into a complex, that could include some embedded
supercellular activity. Low level shear should increase through the
night, which may bring into play some embedded spin-ups within any
line segments or QLCS structures. Expect these storms to move into
eastern Kansas and western Missouri by 4 pm to 5 pm, and into the KC
Metro area by 6 pm to 8 pm. The main hazards with these storms will
be wind and hail, although with ample low level shear an isolated
brief tornado or two could form.

Expect this activity to move out of the area during the overnight
hours and into central/eastern Missouri by midnight, if not a little
sooner. Upon cold frontal passage a drier air mass will move into
the area. Once the main mid level trough moves through the northern
and central plains it will have less than favorable atmosphere for
precipitation production, thus expect only some light showers across
far northern Missouri. Once those showers move out by Thursday and
Thursday night, cooler temperatures are in store for the rest of the
week and into the early weekend. Temperatures then warm up for the
early part of next week, then for the late part of the week another
chance for some light rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

Scattered light showers possible overnight but the thunderstorm
threat is minimal. Mostly VFR ceilings over northern west central MO
to start out but MVFR ceilings expected to fill in with the passage
of a cold front during the pre-dawn hours. NAM model sounding
suggests IFR ceilings for a handful of hours a few hours either side
of sunrise. Do note a few upstream IFR observations over southern NE
so it's certainly possible. Will leave out of TAFs for now and amend
if necessary. Otherwise, expect MVFR ceilings will prevail for much
of THursday before lifting in the mid/late afternoon hours. Could
also see a band of spotty light showers move across northwest and
west central MO very late afternoon/early evening with the passage of
a secondary cold front.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Leighton
AVIATION...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
852 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-010200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
852 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE A STRONG WIND GUST OR SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
 RULED OUT...SEVERE STORMS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
141 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

KSZ057-MOZ043-053-310715-
MIAMI KS-BATES MO-CASS MO-
141 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI...CASS AND
NORTHWESTERN BATES COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 140 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DREXEL...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF LOUISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARRISONVILLE...PECULIAR...LOUISBURG...GARDEN CITY...ARCHIE...DREXEL...
CLEVELAND...FREEMAN...LAKE ANNETTE...WEST LINE AND MERWIN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3839 9461 3839 9466 3859 9478 3878 9436
      3852 9417 3837 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 242DEG 39KT 3848 9461

MURRAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
215 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MOZ043-044-053-054-310745-
HENRY MO-JOHNSON MO-BATES MO-CASS MO-
215 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...
SOUTHEASTERN CASS...NORTHEASTERN BATES AND NORTHWESTERN HENRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

AT 214 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ADRIAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADRIAN...GARDEN CITY...ARCHIE...URICH...CREIGHTON...HARTWELL...BALLARD...
QUICK CITY AND LA TOUR.

LAT...LON 3828 9427 3855 9442 3870 9406 3841 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 243DEG 35KT 3839 9432

MURRAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
249 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

MOZ044-045-054-310815-
HENRY MO-PETTIS MO-JOHNSON MO-
249 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PETTIS...
SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM
CDT...

AT 248 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LEETON...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINDSOR...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINDSOR...KNOB NOSTER...WHITEMAN AIR FORCE BASE...LA MONTE...LEETON...
GREEN RIDGE...CALHOUN...WHITEMAN AFB AND POST OAK.

LAT...LON 3869 9386 3883 9335 3857 9323 3851 9348
      3851 9351 3850 9352 3844 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 254DEG 42KT 3860 9370

MURRAY