Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Kansas City, MO

365 
WWUS53 KEAX 030206
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
906 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

KSC091-121-MOC037-095-030216-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0230.000000T0000Z-161103T0215Z/
JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-CASS MO-JACKSON MO-
906 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI...NORTHWESTERN CASS AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 915 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3872 9474 3891 9467 3886 9436 3862 9441
TIME...MOT...LOC 0206Z 287DEG 24KT 3877 9444 

$$

MELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016

.Short Term...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

Convection increased early this afternoon along and/or just ahead
of a sfc front that has moved southeast into far nw MO/ne KS. The
first wave of stronger convection is already propagating off to
the east of the cwfa. However, high res models are consistent in
developing additional showers/thunderstorms along the front,
especially over the southeastern portion of the cwfa as the sfc
front begins to advance to the southeast later this afternoon and
early this evening. A few stronger storms may still develop later
this afternoon while sfc based instability exists over parts of
west central into central MO where temperatures are still in the
mid-upper 70s. Vertical shear weakens as you head you head south
but could see some small hail/wind gusts with some stronger
updrafts/storms.

Once the front pushes all the way through the area this evening,
some post frontal lower clouds will give way to clearing late
tonight. Sfc high pressure will build into the area for Thu with
beautiful autumn weather returning.

.Long Term...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

A sharp upper level ridge axis will shift east from eastern KS through
MO Fri through early Sunday. Mild weather with light south winds
are expected through this period.

Medium range guidance is fairly consistent in taking a closed low
that is now meandering over the sw U.S. and opening it up while
lifting it northeast into the central High Plains by Sunday
night then shifting it slowly east as a positively tilted trough
by early Tue. By days 6 and 7 (Tue-Wed) guidance starts to diverge
on large scale features. Some chances for rain (still fairly low
pops) for late Sunday into Mon look reasonable. Whatever is left
of the weakening upper system by Tue may linger as a weak upper
level shear axis if the upper ridge builds back up to our east as
depicted by the ECMWF. In any case, a model blend dosen't yield
much in the way of rain chances at this time for Tue-Wed.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

Thunderstorms have developed just ahead of a cold front which resides
btn STJ and MCI. These storms wil remain south of MCI but are
expected to affect MKC thru 01Z otrw...have opted for VCTS at MCI.
This cold front which is already thru STJ is expected to sag thru the
rest of the TAF site btn 02Z-03Z. Models are suggesting MVFR cigs
movg into the terminals behind the front and this is supported by
current upstream obs. MVFR cigs are then expected to affect the
terminals thru 12Z-14Z before sctg out. Otrw...expect mainly clear
skies tomorrow morning. Winds are generally vrb at MCI and MKC and
will remain so until the cold front moves thru at which point winds
will shift to the north btn 5-10 kts which they already have at STJ.
IXD will be lgt out of the south thru 03Z-04Z when they will shift
the the north also btn 5-10kts behnd the front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Short Term...DSA (SGF)
Long Term...DSA (SGF)
Aviation...73

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
453 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-031000-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
453 AM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
345 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             1 NE GLADSTONE          39.21N 94.55W
11/02/2016  U1.50 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            64TH AND ANTIOCH. REPORT RECEIVED VIA
            TWITTER PICTURE.

&&

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
348 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             1 NNW GLENAIRE          39.23N 94.46W
11/02/2016  E2.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT RECEIVED VIA TWITTER PICTURE.

&&

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
400 PM CDT WED NOV 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             MISSOURI CITY           39.24N 94.29W
11/02/2016  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 210 EAST NEAR MISSOURI CITY

0345 PM     HAIL             MISSOURI CITY           39.24N 94.29W
11/02/2016  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 210 EAST NEAR MISSOURI CITY.

&&

MELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
410 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

MOZ030-038-022145-
RAY MO-LAFAYETTE MO-
410 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND
SOUTHERN RAY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 410 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ORRICK...OR NEAR RICHMOND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICHMOND...LEXINGTON...ORRICK...HARDIN...HENRIETTA...CAMDEN AND
FLEMING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9416 3929 9414 3935 9383 3915 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 263DEG 23KT 3924 9408

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
621 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

MOZ021-029-030-030000-
RAY MO-CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-
621 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON...WEST
CENTRAL RAY AND CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LIBERTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KANSAS CITY...LIBERTY...GLADSTONE...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...KEARNEY...
LAWSON...CLAYCOMO...PLEASANT VALLEY...GLENAIRE...HOLT...CRYSTAL
LAKES...EXCELSIOR ESTATES...WOODS HEIGHTS...MOSBY...HOMESTEAD AND
PRATHERSVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 33.
 INTERSTATE 435 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 42 AND 52.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3918 9452 3931 9457 3952 9423 3932 9408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 246DEG 23KT 3933 9446

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
815 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     TSTM WND GST     DE SOTO                 38.98N 94.96W
11/02/2016  M63 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            63 MPH GUST MEASURED BY WEATHER STATION.

&&

NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
IRIS SYSTEM