Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1237 AM CDT Thu Oct 6 2016

.Update...
Issued at 759 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

Have shifted the area of initial convective development further north
in response to the northward shift of stronger h8 moisture
convergence. 12z/18z short range models depict the nose of the low
level jet as being further north. RAP trends support this analysis
and latest HRRR trending this way as well. And the proof in the
pudding is in the isolated convection which is popping up along a
line from STJ to CDJ to near IRK. Eventually the convection will fill
in and shift southeast overnight.

Further down the road am a little concerned on the extent of
convection during both the morning and afternoon hours. May be a
little too wet. Will see what the 00z NAM looks like before making
any significant changes.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

...Tonight...
The weak front that moved through the area this morning will begin to
lift into northern MO as a southwest-northeast oriented warm front
this evening. WAA has already increased and will be strong enough to
create some lift in conjunction with the front and increase storm
chances from east-central KS up to northeast MO and southward
starting this afternoon. The warm front will stall out along this
line and create multiple clusters of storms on the southern side in
the overnight hours. The LLJ ramps up somewhat parallel to the front
after 9 pm and will help produce convection. Instability and shear
parameters show the possibility of producing some strong to severe
weather. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats. A decent
amount of moisture will also be present with these storms due to the
LLJ; therefore, some storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. These
showers and storms will linger into the morning hours until the LLJ
dies down.

...Tomorrow...
A few rounds of storms are possible tomorrow as the upper level
trough and surface low approach the area. Strong WAA, dew point
temperatures in the upper 60s, and CAPE values in the 2000-3000 J/kg
range will aid in the development of storms. The surface low will
move northeast from central KS into central IA. The location of the
surface low will also provide a rough location for the best chance
of severe weather tomorrow afternoon and evening. Northwest MO and
northeast KS are in an enhanced risk. As previously mentioned,
instability values will reach up to around 3000 J/kg, while 0-6 km
shear values will be between 50 and 60 kts. The primary threats being
damaging winds and hail, but we cannot rule out a few isolated
tornadoes due to helicity values up to 300 m2/s2 and 0-1 km shear
exceeding 25 kts. The area from Olathe to Kirksville is in a slight
risk with damaging winds and hail being the primary threats. Showers
and storms will hang around until Friday morning when the cold front
finally moves through the area.

...Fri-Sun...
Much calmer and cooler weather is expected for the weekend as a
surface high pressure moves in behind the cold front. Highs will
begin in the low 60s Friday and will slowly increase to the low 70s
by Sunday.

...Mon-Wed...
Temperatures will remain in the 70s for the beginning of next week
but storm chances return. An upper level trough will send a few pulses
of energy our way Monday through Wednesday, but right now chances for
widespread showers and storms appear low.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

Scattered convection will continue overnight with the bulk of it
focused from east central KS through west central into northeast MO.
VFR conditions with pockets of MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities
will likely be embedded within the bands of storms.

Scattered convection may well be ongoing across areas south of the MO
River during the first part of the morning. Believe there will be a
general break in the activity in the afternoon hours with gusty
southerly winds developing across the region. A line of strong to
severe thunderstorms are likely to develop along the cold front just
west of the area late Thursday afternoon. This line will reach into
northwest MO by around sunset and march southeast during the evening
hours. Strong and gusty northwesterly winds will follow the passage
of the front.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Update...MJ
Discussion...Grana
Aviation...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
440 AM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-060945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
440 AM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
 TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO TO QUARTER
 SIZE. OTHERWISE SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS 30 TO 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT
 LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

 SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
 NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FOR
 LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

 WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, MINOR
 FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
 EXPECTED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1134 PM CDT WED OCT 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 PM     HAIL             5 SW BASEHOR            39.09N 95.00W
10/05/2016  E0.75 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1154 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

KSZ103>105-MOZ037-060530-
WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-JACKSON MO-
1154 PM CDT WED OCT 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEAVENWORTH...
WYANDOTTE...JOHNSON AND WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM
CDT...

AT 1154 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR GARDNER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...SHAWNEE...LENEXA...LEAWOOD...PRAIRIE
VILLAGE...GARDNER...MERRIAM...MISSION...BONNER SPRINGS...DE SOTO...
EDWARDSVILLE...FAIRWAY...MISSION HILLS...WESTWOOD...LAKE QUIVIRA...
KANSAS CITY...WESTWOOD HILLS...MISSION WOODS AND COUNTRYSIDE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 410 AND 422.
 INTERSTATE 35 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 1.
 INTERSTATE 35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 208 AND 235.
 INTERSTATE 635 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 6.
 INTERSTATE 435 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 19...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 78 AND 83.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 222 AND 226.

LAT...LON 3921 9481 3919 9477 3917 9475 3917 9474
      3904 9450 3876 9487 3887 9506 3894 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 222DEG 32KT 3890 9495

MELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

MOZ021-022-029-030-060630-
RAY MO-CALDWELL MO-CLAY MO-CLINTON MO-
1243 AM CDT THU OCT 6 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON...RAY...
SOUTHERN CALDWELL AND NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1242 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER WOODS HEIGHTS...OR OVER EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...RICHMOND...LAWSON...POLO...CRYSTAL LAKES...
COWGILL...EXCELSIOR ESTATES...WOODS HEIGHTS...RAYVILLE...HOMESTEAD...
ELMIRA AND KNOXVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3959 9383 3930 9378 3924 9425 3952 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0542Z 252DEG 23KT 3932 9419

MELL