Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
554 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Early morning elevated convection will continue to fire south of a
stationary frontal boundary draped across northeast Kansas and
northern Missouri. A stout EML will continue to support modest
instability with further destabilization through the morning hours.
Storms early on will be relatively isolated and should remain north
of the I-70 corridor until daybreak. Overnight convection has been
slow to strengthen given the lack of instability, though should
start to see more widespread development in the early to mid morning
hours. A larger cluster of storms developing over north central
Kansas, where more supportive instability is present, will likely
generate a cold pool sufficient enough to steer nearby convection to
the southeast. As these elevated storms strengthen after daybreak,
some storms may produce large hail until the mid morning.

As this activity slides to the southeast through the late morning to
early afternoon, there should be a bit of a break in the activity
until the late afternoon and early evening hours. The anticipated
deep upper low will center across western Kansas while at the
surface, a dryline will reside from central Texas up to south
central Nebraska. Morning convection may limit instability to a
degree, though cloud cover should thin out enough to generate
surface based CAPE values over 2000 Jkg by the mid afternoon. More
robust convection will fire along the dry line well to the west of
the area through the early afternoon. This convection will then
slide into eastern Kansas and western Missouri by the late
afternoon. Will also need to monitor the potential for convection
ahead of the dryline within an area of surface convergence. As the
storms over eastern Kansas approach the area, will likely transition
to a linear mode with bowing segments. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the primary hazards, particularly for western Missouri,
though a few embedded tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The next round of activity, which could be more pronounced for the
CWA, arrives during Wednesday as the dryline advances toward eastern
Kansas. Modest instability looks to develop across eastern Kansas
along with central and southwest Missouri as previous convection
clears out. Most of the expected convection should develop over
central and eastern Missouri, though will need to monitor points
west, particularly northwest Missouri as the stacked low could
produce a few tornadoes.

The active pattern will subside temporarily heading into Thursday
and Friday, though another upper low will deepen across the
southwest during this time. Could see late week convection by late
Friday as a warm front lifts north. A few rounds of storms with
potential severe storms will then develop through the weekend as the
surface low lifts to the northwest into the Central Plains.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

Developing thunderstorms over NE Kansas will slide to the southeast
and should clip the KC metro through the early morning hours.
Visibility and ceilings will likely decrease to MVFR should the
storms drop far enough south as expected. This will be followed by a
break in the activity through much of the afternoon with conditions
returning to VFR. More widespread thunderstorms will then develop
ahead of a dryline over central Kansas and work their way into the
terminals this evening. Ceilings may periodically drop to IFR within
the stronger storms, though prevailing MVFR looks probable overall.
These will then begin to taper off toward the very end of the
forecast period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
534 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271045-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
534 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. A SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 AM     HAIL             ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 AM     HAIL             ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
04/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
719 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 AM     HAIL             LANCASTER               39.57N 95.30W
04/26/2016  M1.75 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PEA TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED

&&

KBRONIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
720 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     HAIL             LANCASTER               39.57N 95.30W
04/26/2016  M2.25 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2.25 INCH HAIL REPORTED.

&&

KBRONIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
721 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MOZ030-031-261245-
RAY MO-CARROLL MO-
721 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CARROLL AND
NORTHEASTERN RAY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM CDT...

AT 721 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF HARDIN...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHMOND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STET.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3931 9381 3939 9398 3952 9378 3949 9350
TIME...MOT...LOC 1221Z 229DEG 24KT 3938 9386

PIETRYCHA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
723 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 AM     HAIL             1 WNW EDWARDSVILLE      39.08N 94.84W
04/26/2016  M1.50 INCH       WYANDOTTE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ABAILEY