Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
648 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 349 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Short Term (Today - Sunday night):

The main concern in the short term is the potential for severe
thunderstorms this evening into tonight. The main threat with these
storms will be the potential for damaging winds and flash flooding.

Storms have begun to initiate along the cold front from southwestern
Iowa into southeastern Nebraska and further southwest into central
Kansas. These storms are expect to develop into a linear MCS and
move into the area this evening. Sufficient instability of 1500-
2500J/kg of CAPE will be available with these storms however, 0-6km
shear continues to be relatively weak between 20-30kts.
Consequently, their is the potential, particularly this evening,
with the potential for damaging winds with this line of storms.
Instability as we move into the night time hours will quickly wane
so severe potential will diminish as well. These storms will also be
effective rain producers as PWAT values hover right around 2 inches
however, storms are not expected to train and should push relatively
quickly to the southeast. So, the potential for flash flooding is
low but because heavy rain is likely it can not completely be ruled
out. After midnight, severe potential will have ended however,
thunderstorms are expected to continue through the overnight as the
cold front pushes through the area. The front will have cleared the
CWA tomorrow morning however shower and isolated thunderstorm
chances will continue through tomorrow morning as the upper level
trough associated with the cold front swings through the region.
Skies will then look to clear out west to east Saturday afternoon.
Conditions will be much cooler behind the front Saturday with highs
in the mid 70s. High pressure will then move into the area Saturday
night and remain over the area through Sunday night bring fair and
some of the coolest weather of the season thus far. Lows Saturday
and Sunday night will bottom out on the mid to upper 50s with highs
on Sunday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Extended Range (Monday - Thursday):

Monday, high pressure will shift off to the east and WAA will begin
to get underway allowing highs to rise into the low to mid 80s.
However, as we head into the middle part of next week conditions
look to become unsettled again as another upper level trough moves
from the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains. WAA storms
will move into the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. As the
upper trough moves into the northern Plains on Wednesday it will
send a sagging cold front towards the area continuing thunderstorm
chances on Wednesday. The front then looks to stall across the area
with thunderstorms remaining possible through Thursday. Highs for
most of next week look to remain in the ow to mid 80s range.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

A line of thunderstorms will impact all TAF sites between 01z and at
least 04z, then some weaker convection could linger through around
06z. A few very isolated showers and storms are possible ahead of the
line, but the main concern will be when the heavier thunderstorms
arrive. Winds in the storms will be out of the west to northwest and
could contain gusts of up to 40 to 45 kts, and visibilities could be
temporarily reduced to below 1 mile. After storms pass through, a few
spotty showers and MVFR ceilings are possible before ceilings begin
to gradually lift and drier air moves in. Winds will switch to the
northwest in and behind the storms, and will remain out of the NW to
NNW through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...Laflin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
503 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
503 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST BUT COULD REMAIN STRONG INTO THE KANSAS
CITY METRO AREA. STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

 THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME MID WEEK.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ102-MOZ011-192315-
DONIPHAN KS-HOLT MO-
523 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

AT 523 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
WHITE CLOUD...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF HIGHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUND CITY...OREGON...FOREST CITY...WHITE CLOUD...BIG LAKE...
FORTESCUE AND IOWA POINT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 83.

LAT...LON 4017 9514 3995 9499 3990 9531 3996 9534
      4000 9534 4000 9531 4003 9535 4003 9538
      4005 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 244DEG 9KT 3997 9529

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
659 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ025-102-MOZ011-012-020-200045-
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN KS-BUCHANAN MO-ANDREW MO-HOLT MO-
659 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DONIPHAN...NORTHERN ATCHISON...
SOUTHERN ANDREW...BUCHANAN AND SOUTHEASTERN HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

AT 658 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER TROY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOSEPH...ATCHISON...SAVANNAH...GOWER...WATHENA...ELWOOD...
HIGHLAND...TROY...COUNTRY CLUB VILLA...COUNTRY CLUB...AGENCY...
AMAZONIA...RUSHVILLE...LANCASTER...DENTON...DONIPHAN...EASTON...
DE KALB...COSBY AND SEVERANCE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 32 AND 69.
 INTERSTATE 229 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 14.

LAT...LON 3965 9534 3986 9534 4001 9500 3987 9460
      3953 9460 3959 9556 3965 9556
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 279DEG 25KT 3980 9509

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
727 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

KSZ103>105-200115-
WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-LEAVENWORTH KS-
727 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LEAVENWORTH...WYANDOTTE AND
JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 726 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR OZAWKIE TO NEAR
WILLIAMSTOWN TO NEAR CENTROPOLIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS
DURING THE NEXT 45 MINUTES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...SHAWNEE...LENEXA...LEAVENWORTH...GARDNER...
LANSING...MERRIAM...BONNER SPRINGS...DE SOTO...SPRING HILL...
TONGANOXIE...BASEHOR...EDWARDSVILLE...EDGERTON...LAKE QUIVIRA...
KANSAS CITY...LINWOOD...EASTON AND RENO.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 410 AND 417.
 INTERSTATE 35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 202 AND 226.
 INTERSTATE 435 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 19...AND BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 81 AND 83.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 206 AND 226.

LAT...LON 3935 9518 3937 9494 3929 9490 3924 9482
      3921 9483 3921 9479 3909 9469 3874 9472
      3874 9506 3898 9506 3899 9508 3896 9509
      3897 9511 3898 9516 3896 9517 3897 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 261DEG 30KT 3928 9539 3903 9527 3871 9531

BLAIR