Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Kansas City, MO

340 
WWUS53 KEAX 302129
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
429 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

MOC003-021-063-075-302138-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-160530T2130Z/
ANDREW MO-GENTRY MO-DEKALB MO-BUCHANAN MO-
429 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW...
SOUTHWESTERN GENTRY...WESTERN DEKALB AND NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4004 9430 3975 9449 3975 9456 3979 9473
      4009 9459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 200DEG 22KT 3982 9459 

$$

MELL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 416 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Today - Wednesday:

Not much to hang one's hat on to define where/when convection will
form or move in today. A weak and poorly defined warm front extends
from central NE through south central IA and northeast MO this
morning. Isolated/elevated convection aided by weak isentropic
ascent on the 305K surface has sputtered through the night across
the far northeastern counties. Think this lift will dissipate by mid
morning. Otherwise, think the CWA will be dry until this afternoon.
Inspection of local progged soundings reveals a very unstable
airmass with the CIN disappearing this afternoon. Short range
convective allowing models as well as GFS and NAM paint the picture
of hit and miss/pulse type convection. 0-6km shear is very weak so
convection will be sub-severe.

North TX MCS is heading towards the gulf and 00z/06z models not
handling this well which calls into question the vorticity max the
GFS and especially the NAM show over OK by 18z. For now will focus
on diurnally driven/pulse type convection. High temperatures should
be similar to yesterdays.

Overnight, convection generated along a weak cold front will likely
weaken as it heads towards northwest MO after midnight. This
activity could survive the typical morning dissipation phase and
sputter around before redeveloping in the afternoon. The
precipitation and how much/how long the convective cloud debris
linger will determine the degree of instability and later convective
potential/coverage. Even if we see moderate instability the severe
threat will again be muted by weak 0-6km shear in the 15-20kt range.

The cold front wont reach the region until Tuesday night as it
awaits the arrival of a moderately strong upstream shortwave. This
should ensure likely type PoPs into the evening hours.

Wednesday will start the transition to a drier period as the cold
front moves into central MO by late morning. Will keep high chance
PoPs over the southeast third of the CWA.

Thursday - Sunday:

A relatively uneventful and quiet period marked initially by drier
and more stable air arriving as weak high pressure builds into the
region. Temperatures will be near or slightly below seasonal
readings.

Faster northwest flow aloft resides across the north central and
Great Lakes states. Will need to monitor for any buckles in the flow
signaling a shortwave dropping southeast. GFS picks up on a feature
forcing a cold front through the mid MO River Valley late Saturday
whereas the ECMWF does not. Lacking confirmation and with the
blended approach only yielding below climatology PoPs will maintain
a dry forecast. Do see slightly warmer temperatures and an uptick
in humidity with the return of southerly flow.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Thunderstorms are slowly making their way northward into east-central
KS and west-central MO early this afternoon. Additional storms are
beginning to develop just south of the KC metro area and will
continue to lift north as well. Over the next couple of hours,
chances for storms to be in the terminals' vicinity will be on the
increase and have kept VCTS mention as such. IXD appears likely to be
the first one to see storms in the area, by about 19Z, with the best
storm chances occurring in the vicinity of the rest of the terminals
between 20Z through about 01Z. Will be monitoring to see if AMDs will
be necessary to include TSRA but given the loose organization of the
storms, didn't have enough confidence to include direct impacts to
the terminals at this time. Winds will remain out of the south
throughout the TAF period with another round of storms possible later
tomorrow, likely beyond this TAF period.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...lg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
445 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-310945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
445 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
 AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. A FEW OF THESE
 MAY BE STRONG. THUNDERSTORM CHANCE CONTINUE WEDNESDAY BUT NO SEVERE
 STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
117 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

KSZ057-105-MOZ043-301900-
MIAMI KS-JOHNSON KS-CASS MO-
117 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND WESTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 116 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LOUISBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...LEAWOOD...BELTON...RAYMORE...PAOLA...
SPRING HILL...PECULIAR...LOUISBURG...CLEVELAND...FREEMAN...
LAKE ANNETTE...WEST LINE...CHILES...BUCYRUS...HILLSDALE...STANLEY...
STILLWELL AND WAGSTAFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 9455 3860 9490 3890 9477 3876 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 203DEG 20KT 3862 9468

MELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
315 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N EDGERTON            38.80N 95.00W
05/30/2016                   JOHNSON            KS   911 CALL CENTER

            40X80 BARN DESTROYED...POWER POLES DOWN...AND 8 TO 10
            INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN. POSSIBLE MICROBURST. TIME

            ESTIMATED...REPORT CAME INTO DISPATCH AT 1400 LOCAL TIME.

&&

LAFLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
316 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S FREEMAN             38.57N 94.50W
05/30/2016                   CASS               MO   911 CALL CENTER

            SIX INCHES OF WATER OVER W HIGHWAY JUST EAST OF O HIGHWAY

&&

32

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
351 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

MOZ012-013-020-021-302130-
BUCHANAN MO-ANDREW MO-CLINTON MO-DE KALB MO-
351 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...
SOUTHEASTERN ANDREW...SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB AND NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 351 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
STEWARTSVILLE...OR 8 MILES NORTH OF GOWER...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. JOSEPH...MAYSVILLE...STEWARTSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...EASTON...
COSBY...AMITY AND HELENA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3966 9453 3968 9479 3996 9466 3991 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 200DEG 20KT 3973 9463

MELL