Areal Flood Warning 34, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1223 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 336 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

Areas of moderate to heavy rain have lingered across the area
through the morning and afternoon generally in response to a surface
boundary that is currently located across southern Nebraska and
northern Missouri. Some weak, but steady isentropic upglide over the
surface boundary has helped keep showers and thunderstorms going
through the afternoon hours, and ultimately into the evening hours.
By the overnight hours isentropic ascent, mainly along the 295K
through 305K Theta E surfaces will contribute to more rain across
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Instability across
areas south of ongoing convection has increased through the day to
reach around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Effective bulk shear has
approached 30 to 40 kts. So while widespread severe weather is not
expected at this time, there could be a strong storm or two,
especially where the better environment exists south of the ongoing
convection. Areas generally along and north of I-70 would be the
areas most likely to see overnight showers, however areas along and
south of I-70 may not be completely shut out from overnight rain. By
Wednesday mid morning to early afternoon a surface ridge will pass
well to the north of the area, but its southern periphery will nose
into central Missouri, which will effectively cut off precipitation
chances through the second half of Wednesday.

Once the surface ridge moves east of the area on Thursday, southerly
return flow will bring warm/moist air back into western and central
Missouri, along with eastern Kansas. As the warm front lifts north,
putting the area in the warm/moist sector southwest flow aloft
associated with a shortwave trough will provide ascent, which will
ultimately lead to periods of rain across the area through Friday
night. Another surface ridge will nose into the area for Saturday,
which will relegate most of the precipitation into southern
Missouri, perhaps as far north as I-70. Otherwise, areas along and
north of I-70 should see a pleasant weekend, with dry conditions.

By early next week the pattern looks to reset again, with southerly
warm/moist surface flow behind the departing surface ridge, and
southwesterly flow aloft. Expect more of a wet pattern through at
least the middle part of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT WED SEP 14 2016

A large area of convection will continue across the northern third
of MO through the pre-dawn hours. Ceilings will run generally VFR
with embedded MVFR ceilings with the stronger thunderstorms. The
convection will likely taper to scattered showers and isolated storms
after 09z with the precipitation gradually sagging south towards the
MO River. Areas generally south of the MO should stay mostly dry
with VFR ceilings till the pre-dawn hours. After 09z am expecting
MVFR visibilities with IFR ceilings to form and last into mid
morning. There will likely be areas of drizzle as well through mid
morning.

An extensive low-level cloud shield should remain in place over the
entire region from mid morning through the rest of the period with
ceilings gradually improving to MVFR by very early afternoon.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

Discussion...Leighton
Aviation...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
502 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-141015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
502 AM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA MOST OF THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
SHORT BREAK FOR MOST AREAS AROUND MIDDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

 THERE WILL BE DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT STORMS
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
913 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

KSZ057-105-MOZ043-140245-
MIAMI KS-JOHNSON KS-CASS MO-
913 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 912 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SPRING HILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...LEAWOOD...BELTON...SPRING HILL...
LOUISBURG...CLEVELAND...CHILES...BUCYRUS...STILLWELL AND STANLEY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 212 AND
218.

LAT...LON 3874 9489 3891 9484 3887 9461 3885 9461
      3884 9454 3860 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 286DEG 17KT 3878 9479

WELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
933 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             OLATHE                  38.89N 94.81W
09/13/2016  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

&&

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
943 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

KSZ057-105-MOZ043-140315-
MIAMI KS-JOHNSON KS-CASS MO-
943 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON...
NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
CDT...

AT 943 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CLEVELAND...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELTON...RAYMORE...CLEVELAND...STILLWELL AND BUCYRUS.

LAT...LON 3873 9474 3883 9469 3881 9445 3862 9455
TIME...MOT...LOC 0243Z 283DEG 14KT 3874 9464

WELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
952 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     FLASH FLOOD      S LEONA                 39.79N 95.32W
09/13/2016                   DONIPHAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WAIST-DEEP WATER REPORTED OVER BRIDGE ON ASHPOINT RD.

&&

JWELSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1026 PM CDT TUE SEP 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
09/13/2016  M5.20 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH 10 PM AT I-229 AND HIGHWAY 371.

&&

JWELSH