Areal Flood Warning 20, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 332 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

Name of the game for the foreseeable will be very warm temperatures
with values possibly reaching the century mark later this week.
Before we dive into those details however...we're still monitoring
convection along the IA/MO state border this morning as a strong low-
level jet impinges upon an outflow boundary that's slowly working
south this morning across northern Missouri...with additional
dynamics being supplied by strong upper divergence in the right
entrance region of an upper jet streak to our north. Latest MRMS
precip estimates suggest 3-hr precip totals in excess of 3 inches
across northern Nodaway and Worth Counties...but calls to local law
enforcement indicate no current hydro-related issues. In any
event...activity should slowly come to an end towards sunrise as the
low-level jet weakens with time.

Today will mark Day 2 of the ongoing heat wave as upper ridging
continues to build across the Nation's midsection. Highs this
afternoon will reach well into the lower to middle 90s with low 70
degree dewpoints yielding afternoon heat indicies near or slightly
above the 100 degrees in many areas. Will have to watch across the
far north as lingering cloud cover may keep temps a few degrees
cooler than areas south of Route 36 but it should still feel
oppressive considering the added moisture from this morning's
rainfall. Heading into tonight...slight chance for shwrs/storms as a
weak shortwave dives southeast in northwest flow aloft. Overall
however...best forcing from the low-level jet will remain north and
west of our area...and wouldn't be surprised if much if not the
entire area remained dry.

Heading towards midweek...upper ridge to become well-entrenched across
the Heartland with latest GFS standardized anomalies suggesting 500
hPa heights 2-3 standard deviations above normal. This will result in
temps climbing even higher with upper mid/upper 90s likely on
Wednesday...with temps possibly reaching/exceeding the 100 degree
mark across portions of the area both Thursday and Friday. After
extensive collaboration with adjacent offices (thanks
TOP/ICT/SGF/LSX!)...have decided to extend the heat advisory out
through 00z on Saturday. Based on this morning's model runs
however...its conceivable to believe that portions of our area may
need an upgrade to an excessive heat warning as the week progresses.
The heat monster looks to continue right through Saturday with a reprieve
finally expected to arrive Saturday night as a front sags south over
the region. This should set the stage for a return to near normal
temperatures early next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

VFR conditions expected through the fcst period as high pressure
continues to strengthen across the central U.S. Upper cirrus
associated with convection along the IA/MO state line should slide
east this morning. Otherwise winds will shift to the southwest
between 5-10 kts today backing to the southeast after sunset.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT Friday for
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
512 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191015-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
512 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

 HEAT WAVE ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
 THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH AND EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK
FOR MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MISSOURI TONIGHT.
PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS, HAIL, DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING, AND MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

 SOARING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EACH DAY IN ADDITION TO HIGH
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LEAD TO OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICIES. HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 100 DEGREES TO NEAR THE 110 DEGREE MARK
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HOTTEST DAY ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ON
THURSDAY.

 MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
 HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EAX/HWO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
353 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0233 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW GRANT CITY         40.43N 94.48W
07/18/2016                   WORTH              MO   COCORAHS

            LARGE TREE SNAPPED NEAR TOP. 50 MPH WIND GUST ESTIMATED.
            POWERLINES DOWN AND POWER OUT IN THE AREA

&&

32