Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
330 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Stationary front was located from eastern IA into central IL with
a cold front back into nw IA. Deep layer shear was strong along
and north of I-80 with steep mid level lapse rates. MCS was
organizing in our northern cwa with a bowing segment producing
winds over 70 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Forecast focus on thunderstorm chances in the short term.

Severe thunderstorms early this morning should gradually diminish
in coverage and intensity through mid morning. Then a break in the
action expected late morning and early afternoon. This will allow
for heating to take place with SBCAPES increasing to 5500 J/KG.
With a weakening cap scattered thunderstorms should redevelop
later this afternoon into the evening. Models suggest another MCS
rolling southeast across the cwa especially after midnight. Any
storms today and tonight will be capable of damaging winds and
locally heavy rainfall. SPC has a slight risk of severe storms
across the entire cwa. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with
lows in the lower 70s. Heat index values will push well into the
90s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Forecast focus on widespread severe weather possible on Thursday
into Thursday night.

Thursday and Thursday night: Potent upper level trough and cold
front will be coming across the cwa. Models suggest at least
scattered thunderstorms during the day with more widespread storms
especially Thursday evening. Deep layer shear will be moderate to
strong and mid level winds strengthen to 50 knots. SBCAPES will be
over 5500 J/KG with helicity of over 200 m2/s2. This suggests
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Any rotating storm may also
produce large hail. SPC has an enhanced risk for severe storms
across much of the cwa. There will be enough solar insolation to
push highs well into the 80s to lower 90s with dewpoints well into
the 70s. This will create heat index values well into the 90s with
our southern cwa possibly reaching 100 to 105. Depending on
convective trends and any debris clouds a heat advisory may be
needed south of I-80.

Friday through Sunday: Northwest flow aloft and high pressure at
the surface will bring dry and tolerable temperatures and humidity.

Early next week: Deep upper level trough drops into the northern
Rockies. This will return heat and humidity along with chances for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2016

Line of thunderstorms will move southeast across the taf sites
overnight with MVFR/lcl IFR conds in/near thunderstorms. There
should be a diminishing trend of storms in the morning then re-
development of thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon into
the evening. Southeast to south winds overnight then southwest on
Wednesday becoming southeast to south again Wednesday evening.
Wind speeds will generally be 10 to 15 knots but higher in/near
thunderstorms.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
359 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-070900-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
359 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES...ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
332 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HOPKINTON               42.34N 91.25W
07/06/2016                   DELAWARE           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN TOWN BLOCKING THE ROAD...TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 AM CDT WED JUL 06 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 AM     TSTM WND GST     CASCADE                 42.30N 91.01W
07/06/2016  E70.00 MPH       DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0307 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CASCADE                 42.30N 91.01W
07/06/2016                   DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITHIN TOWN...TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

GROSS

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