Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Quad Cities, IA

595 
WWUS53 KDVN 171314
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
814 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

ILC109-187-171345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-160717T1345Z/
WARREN IL-MCDONOUGH IL-
814 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN MCDONOUGH COUNTIES...

AT 813 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BUSHNELL...OR
13 MILES NORTHEAST OF MACOMB...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN MCDONOUGH COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: YOUNGSTOWN...WALNUT GROVE...PRAIRIE CITY
AIRPORT...SCOTTSBURG...MACOMB MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...GREENBUSH...SWAN
CREEK AND SPRING LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 9075 4078 9058 4074 9044 4044 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1313Z 281DEG 41KT 4057 9046 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RP KINNEY

453 
WWUS53 KDVN 171329
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
829 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

ILC109-187-171345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-160717T1345Z/
WARREN IL-MCDONOUGH IL-
829 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND NORTHEASTERN MCDONOUGH COUNTIES...

AT 829 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BUSHNELL...OR
9 MILES NORTHEAST OF MACOMB...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MACOMB...BUSHNELL...AVON...GOOD HOPE...PRAIRIE CITY...BARDOLPH...
NEW PHILADELPHIA...LITTLE SWAN LAKE...WALNUT GROVE...
PRAIRIE CITY AIRPORT...SCOTTSBURG...MACOMB MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
YOUNGSTOWN...SWAN CREEK AND SPRING LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 9075 4071 9062 4071 9044 4044 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1329Z 276DEG 47KT 4053 9052 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RP KINNEY

467 
WWUS53 KDVN 171343
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
843 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

ILC109-187-171353-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-160717T1345Z/
WARREN IL-MCDONOUGH IL-
843 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND
NORTHEASTERN MCDONOUGH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 AM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4052 9075 4071 9062 4071 9044 4044 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1340Z 282DEG 45KT 4053 9052 

$$

GIBBS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
623 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Early this morning a complex of showers and thunderstorms were
moving south towards the area. These showers and thunderstorms
should affect the area shortly before sunrise. A flash flood watch
has been issued for the Highway 20 Iowa counties until 7 am CDT.
These showers and thunderstorms should sag slowly south through
the day and lead to possible redevelopment across the area this
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Main forecast concern for the short term are the chances for
showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. The area is in a
slight risk for severe weather. Showers and thunderstorms will be
ongoing at the beginning of the period and will affect the
forecast for later today. There are two possible mesoscale scenarios
for this afternoon and both depend on where this morning's
convection ends up.

Synoptic scale continues to feature a jet to the north as waves
continue to move through the flow. A warm/cold front will move
north through the day today and then back south this evening. This
boundary along with OFBs in the area will lead to the
redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms. H85 in the ECMWF
exhibits convergence tonight across the southern CWA.

Scenario 1. The convection tonight continues its push south. This
is supported by MUCAPE, meso beta, and Corifidi vectors. This will
likely lead to convective cloud debris across the area, limiting
overall instability. In this scenario, severe weather would be
less likely this afternoon. Convection could fire on the remament
OFBs to our south and we may not destabilze much. We're not sure
this is the right solution as convection currently looks to be
becoming elevated in nature. The CAMs have scenario 1 being not
likely.

Scenario 2. Cold pool driven convection on the nose of a veering
LLJ will slowly drift south across the CWA this morning. This
would set up a psuedo OFB, thermal gradient, across our CWA. As
another wave approaches the area from the west this afternoon
redevelopment will occur. With the jet close enough to the CWA,
deep layer shear will be sufficient for supercell structures with
a large hail threat. The supercells will likely merge into wind
producing clusters shortly after initiation. With the warm front
close to the area, backed sfc winds may increase a short lived
tor threat with the initial supercells. As the high builds in from
the west expect the sfc boundary to sag south. Convergence at H85
will lead to contiunued convection through the overnight across
the south.

Scenario 2 looks the most likely at this time and is supported
heavily by the CAM ensembles at NCAR.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Monday will see focus for any storms across portions of southeast
Iowa, northeast Missouri and west central Illinois, mainly in the
morning. Focus then looks to shift just south of the area by
afternoon ahead of cool front. May see renewed round of storms
Monday night, especially south of Hwy 30, as shortwave crests plains
upper ridge and dives ESE interacting with retreating frontal
boundary. Some potential exists for upscale growth into a forward
propagating MCS with some severe and heavy rain, and if signal
persists or strengthens will need to ramp up precip chances. Temps
will be quite challenging and modulated by extent, magnitude and
duration of convection. Precipitation chances persist Tuesday
through Wednesday with eventual passage of warm front, which looks
to bring quick increase in heat/humidity for latter half of the
week.

The main story continues to focus on potential for a couple of hot
days across the area Thursday and Friday. Model solutions are
perhaps a bit less aggressive with the strength of the upper ridge
than a few days ago, but still highly anomalous, with thermal
parameters (850 mb temps 25c to 28c) still supportive of highs well
into the 90s. Friday still looks to be the hottest day with
potential for widespread mid to upper 90s in deep mixing southwest
flow ahead of next cool front. Dew points likely pooling into the
70s with aid of evapotranspiration from crops, will lead to heat
index reading around or above 100 degrees. Friday dew points may
be a bit challenging with gusty southwest winds and deeper mixing,
which could lower dew points into the 60s some areas. Still, this
drying would likely lead to hotter temperatures thus similar result
of the likelihood of near or above triple digit heat index readings.

GFS and ECM still show a cold front sliding down through the area
Friday night into Saturday, bringing slightly cooler temperatures
along with a return of storm chances for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Period of active weather to affect the TAF sites through most of the
period.  Most sites will experience thunderstorms with outflow
boundaries that could cause a wind shift not forecast.  Thunderstorm
redevelopment is likely this afternoon, especially sites along and
south of Interstate 80.  Have opted to go with a prob30 at MLI and
BRL as this afternoons storms are contingent on the morning storms.
Between storms, VFR flight rules are expected with possible MVFR
late in the period.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Buchanan-
     Delaware-Dubuque.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Gibbs

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-180815-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
307 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA NEAR TO NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS LIKELY MID TO LATE WEEK. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DEWITT                  41.82N 90.55W
07/17/2016                   CLINTON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN DEWITT.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JESUP                   42.48N 92.07W
07/17/2016                   BUCHANAN           IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            GRAIN BIN DESTROYED.

&&

DC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
716 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

ILC067-071-109-187-IAC057-087-111-171330-
WARREN-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-HENRY-LEE-DES MOINES-
716 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN...HANCOCK...
HENDERSON...MCDONOUGH...SOUTHEASTERN HENRY...LEE AND DES MOINES
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM CDT...

AT 716 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ALPHA TO NEAR GULF PORT TO NEAR
BONAPARTE. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON...MACOMB...FORT MADISON...KEOKUK...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...
OQUAWKA...NAUVOO...BUSHNELL...WEST BURLINGTON...HAMILTON...
NEW LONDON...WARSAW...MEDIAPOLIS...COLCHESTER...LA HARPE...
ROSEVILLE...WEST POINT...DALLAS CITY AND DANVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4020 9134 4032 9147 4038 9142 4038 9148
      4040 9149 4041 9152 4046 9152 4047 9158
      4051 9162 4054 9162 4055 9168 4058 9169
      4060 9172 4079 9172 4107 9125 4106 9044
      4035 9045 4028 9064 4028 9091 4019 9091
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 319DEG 32KT 4117 9037 4088 9107 4067 9186

GIBBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
716 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S DEWITT              41.76N 90.55W
07/17/2016                   SCOTT              IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MULBERRY TREE BLOWN OVER, NUMEROUS OTHER LIMBS DOWN

0625 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LONG GROVE              41.69N 90.58W
07/17/2016                   SCOTT              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            3 INCH LIMB DOWN IN A DRIVEWAY

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
726 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PARK VIEW               41.69N 90.54W
07/17/2016                   SCOTT              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN...SOME 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0622 AM     TSTM WND GST     PARK VIEW               41.69N 90.54W
07/17/2016  E60.00 MPH       SCOTT              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

MCCLURE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
735 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE LONG GROVE        41.68N 90.55W
07/17/2016                   SCOTT              IA   PUBLIC

            NEAR FARM ALONG OLD 61 BETWEEN PARKVIEW AND
            ELDERIGE....TOPS OF TREES TWISTED OFF AND CORN LAYING
            DOWN IN NEIGHBORING FIELD WITH SOME OF THE CORN RIPPED
            OUT.

&&

DC