Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Quad Cities, IA

158 
WWUS53 KDVN 261013
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
513 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

IAC055-261045-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160526T1045Z/
DELAWARE IA-
513 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY...

AT 513 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GREELEY...OR 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF MANCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COLESBURG AROUND 525 AM CDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
PETERSBURG...ONEIDA...TWIN BRIDGES PARK AND DELAWARE COUNTY
FAIRGROUNDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 9114 4243 9146 4251 9148 4264 9149
      4265 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1013Z 250DEG 40KT 4258 9133 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RP KINNEY

601 
WWUS53 KDVN 261031
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
531 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

IAC055-261040-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0019.000000T0000Z-160526T1045Z/
DELAWARE IA-
531 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4249 9114 4243 9146 4251 9148 4264 9149
      4265 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1027Z 250DEG 41KT 4265 9107 

$$

RP KINNEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
322 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage from southern
Minnesota into northern Missouri during the early morning hours.
Leading storms had moved into southeast Iowa. The most intense
storms were producing some hail and strong wind gusts. Warm and
moist air remained in place across the area, with early morning
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The main forecast issues are convective trends and intensity this
morning, and again from late afternoon through tonight.

In the near term, strong storms are moving into the southwest
portion of the forecast area. There may be some small hail, but
the biggest concern would be isolated downburst winds in an
environment with DCAPE above 1000 J/kg. Storms in western and
north central Iowa have produced gusts over 80 mph. Deep layer
shear is pretty meager to support very large hail, so again, am
focused on isolated strong wind gusts through the early morning.
High resolution models generally support a weakening trend for the
western Iowa convection as it moves into the Quad Cities forecast
area through the morning. Expect storms to exit to the east by
late morning, with mainly dry conditions expected until at least
late afternoon as temperatures peak again in the mid to upper 80s.

From early evening through the overnight hours, there is still
considerable uncertainty as to the location of remnant outflow
boundaries from the morning storms. Much of the western portion of
the forecast area has been included in the day 1 slight risk
area, and this does appear to be favored for stronger deep layer
shear and forcing from shortwave energy riding up the southwest
flow aloft. A few storms could pose a wind/hail threat, but areas
from northern Missouri into central Iowa should have more
organized storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Forecast focus on chances of storms through the extended along with
above normal temperatures.

Friday through Saturday night, looks quite active with the upper
level trough coming out of the Plains and into the Midwest. Large
scale ascent and a decent low-level jet should act on sufficient
deep layer shear and instability to support several rounds of
thunderstorms. Can't rule out a few severe thunderstorms during the
period but shear is still not that impressive. Also, this is a
positive-tilt trough and a weak surface low which would support a
low end event. Due to more cloud cover and better coverage of
showers and storms temperatures will not be as warm. Highs should be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sunday through Memorial Day, a quieter period with only slights or
very small pops as troughing re-loads back in the Rockies. With more
sunshine temperatures will be warming back into the lower to mid 80s.

Tuesday through Wednesday, active pattern returns as upper level
trough swings out into the Plains. Thunderstorm chances will be on
the increase once again. Highs will remain above normal in the lower
80s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Organized thunderstorm complexes over NW MO, eastern NE and
western IA will continue eastward, possibly reaching the
terminals between 09z and 12z in a weakening fashion. Confidence
is not yet high enough to go beyond vicinity wording for showers
at CID, MLI and BRL, while a tempo group was included at DBQ.
Thursday, a break between systems is likely in the morning, then
another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible from late
afternoon though evening, which is advertised with prob30 groups
for now. Otherwise, conditions will be predominantly VFR
throughout with light south to southwest surface winds.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RP Kinney
SHORT TERM...RP Kinney
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Sheets

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
352 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-270900-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
352 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
AND HAIL TO DIME SIZE. FAVORED AREAS THIS MORNING ARE ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE...TO ALEDO AND MACOMB. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO PRODUCE PONDING WATER ON ROADS AND MINOR STREET
FLOODING.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF AN IOWA CITY TO KEOKUK LINE. QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH
OF A HIGHWAY 34 TO GALESBURG LINE...AND AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY
WEST OF AN IOWA CITY TO KEOKUK LINE.

RP KINNEY/HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 AM     TSTM WND GST     VINTON                  42.16N 92.03W
05/26/2016  E50 MPH          BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
449 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE CEDAR RAPIDS      41.95N 91.66W
05/26/2016  E60 MPH          LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS GUSTING TO ABOUT 60 MPH FOR THE PAST MINUTE. STRONG
            WINDS CONTINUE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
450 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 AM     TSTM WND GST     INDEPENDENCE            42.47N 91.89W
05/26/2016  M62 MPH          BUCHANAN           IA   AWOS

&&

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
453 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N INDEPENDENCE        42.49N 91.89W
05/26/2016  E70 MPH          BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER OUT.

&&

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
454 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WNW INDEPENDENCE      42.47N 91.91W
05/26/2016  E80 MPH          BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
455 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S STANLEY             42.63N 91.81W
05/26/2016  E70 MPH          BUCHANAN           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH FOR THE
            PAST 10 MINUTES.

&&

HAASE