River Flood Warning 69, NWS Quad Cities, IA

049 
WGUS83 KDVN 311031
FLSDVN


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
431 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2016

River forecasts include past precipitation and forecast rainfall for
the next 48 hours.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find an 
alternate route. Turn around, don't drown.

&&

ILC073-161-311101-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FL.W.0069.000000T0000Z-170102T1800Z/
/MLII2.N.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
431 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2016

...Flood Warning is cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Rock River at Moline.
* At  3:30 AM Saturday the stage was 10.6 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* No flooding is occurring...and no flooding is forecast.
* Recent activity...The ice jam appears to have moved downstream of
  Moline. While no flooding is occurring or expected at the Moline 
  gage, ice action could lead to rapid fluctuations in river levels and
  flooding downstream of the Moline gage.  
* Forecast...Remain around 10.6 feet through Sunday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 9061 4145 9064 4144 9043 4148 9027
      4152 9032                       

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
512 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016

Alberta clipper was located along the ND/Canada border and was
pulling milder temperatures into the dvn cwa on southerly winds. A
nice area of 3hr pressure falls of 7 mb extended from MN to MO. An
extensive plume of mid/high level clouds covered much of the
northern and central Plains, eastward across much of the Midwest
and Great Lakes regions.

2 pm temperatures in the dvn cwa ranged from around 30 along
Highway 20 to the lower to mid 40s in our far sw counties.
Farther south in MO and into the southern Plains readings were
well into the 50s.

To the north, much colder air existed across Ontario with
afternoon temperatures only in the single digits above and below
zero, with some snow falling in the Northwoods of MN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016

Tonight: Guidance seemed too low with temperatures so have raised
them at least several degrees. There are several reasons 1) much
of the cwa has bare ground 2) a south to southwest wind remaining
at 10 to 15 mph with some higher gusts 3) decent pressure falls
and 4) time height sections indicate plenty of mid and high level
clouds. These reasons will be especially true in our southern and
eastern counties ahead of a cold front that will be arriving in
our nw cwa late tonight. Minimum temperatures should range from
the upper 20s nw to the mid 30s se. However, for much of the night
temperatures will remain rather steady in the 30s.

Saturday: The final day of 2016 will feature a clipper system
tracking into the northern Great Lakes region, while the cold
front pushes across the remainder of the cwa during the morning.
This will be a dry fropa due to the lack of significant moisture
in the column and the forcing is well to our north. The colder air
lags somewhat behind the front so temperatures should be able to
remain in the 30s for much of the day. However, towards late
afternoon or definitely sunset the colder airmass will be noticed,
but only briefly.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016

Main forecast concern in the long term remains the system for Monday
across the Midwest.  12Z guidance still does not agree on the track
of the surface low Monday.  This track will determine the amount of
precip that we get from the system.  Past this period, cold air will
return to the area.

Placement of the sfc ranges from eastern NE in the GFS to across our
eastern CWA in the ECMWF.  The rest of the guidance is spread
between these two.  While the ECMWF has been more consistent run to
run starting to think that a further west track along the snowpack
seems more likely.  Regardless of those differences, consensus
between the models favors a chance of freezing rain Monday morning
before warmer air moves in and temperatures raise above freezing,
turning to a rain event.  With wetbulb temps near freezing, do not
expect much accumulation of ice.  With the rapid warm up, any
accumulated ice would quickly melt. Total QPF for this event is
heavily dependent on the sfc low and subject to refinement.

Later in the period the main weather impact is expected to be cooler
temperatures.  With a dearth of snow across the area, do not expect
temperatures as cold as a couple of weeks ago.  Regardless, a
stretch of below freezing temperatures are expected before guidance
tries to warm the area up again late into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST Fri Dec 30 2016

Mainly VFR conditions expected again this taf cycle. Clipper
system tracking across the upper Midwest will spread mid/high
level clouds across the area, with south winds 10 to 15 knots this
evening and overnight. A cold front will push southeast across
the taf sites early Saturday morning, but lack of moisture
precludes any precipitation with the front. There may be a period
of MVFR cigs behind the front but mainly at KDBQ but this is not
yet included in the forecast. LLWS at FL017-020 is expected
tonight with south to southwest winds 10 to 20 knots, but
southwest winds aloft around 50 knots from 02Z to 09Z. Northwest
winds behind the front will be in the 10 to 20 knot range.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ervin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1103 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-311715-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1103 AM CST FRI DEC 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HAASE/GIBBS