Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Detroit, MI

440 
WWUS43 KDTX 011603
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1103 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016


MIZ047>049-053>055-020015-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160302T0400Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
1103 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
   TIMES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.

 * NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BY
   THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR LAKE HURON.

 * STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS NORTH OF MIDLAND.
 

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL BE SLICK.

 * THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE TRAVEL THIS
   EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL 
   CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND 
   LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE  
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

MIZ060>063-068>070-020015-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160302T0400Z/
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
1103 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING.

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
   TIMES...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM.

 * NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BY
   THIS EVENING.

 * STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 11 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH LOWER
   AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL BE SLICK.

 * THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE TRAVEL THIS
   EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL 
   CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND 
   LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. 

* A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE  
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

MIZ075-076-082-083-020015-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.160301T1800Z-160302T0400Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1103 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM.

 * SLEET MAY BE MIXED WITH THE SNOW AT TIMES WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN
   NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR THE OHIO STATE LINE.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.

 * LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW-COVERED OR ICY ROADS WILL BE SLICK

 * HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED DURING EVENING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND 
   FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR 
   SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION 
   WHILE DRIVING. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

DG

439 
WWUS43 KDTX 012012
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
312 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

MIZ047>049-053>055-020400-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160302T0400Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...BAD AXE...
SAGINAW...CARO...SANDUSKY
312 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
   TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 8 PM.

 * NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BY 
   THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS NEAR LAKE HURON. 

 * STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB.

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL BE SLICK.

 * PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DURING THE
   EVENING COMMUTE.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE TRAVEL THIS 
   EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

MIZ060>063-068>070-020400-
/O.CON.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160302T0400Z/
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
312 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. S

 * SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED AT
   TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH 8 PM.

 * NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH BY 
   THIS EVENING. 

 * STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 7 TO 11 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY 
   WITH LOWER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR. 

IMPACTS...

 * SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL BE SLICK.

 * PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DURING THE
   EVENING COMMUTE.

 * BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL FURTHER EXACERBATE TRAVEL THIS 
   EVENING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE 
   EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

MIZ075-076-082-083-020400-
/O.CON.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-160302T0400Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
312 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

 * PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM AND
   BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH
   PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

 * STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
   SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS NEAR THE OHIO STATE LINE.

 * ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
   AN INCH.

IMPACTS...

 * UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME SLICK DUE TO SNOW OR ICE
   ACCUMULATIONS.

 * PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND 
   FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR 
   SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION 
   WHILE DRIVING. 

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT 
   HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8 

&&

$$

DG

478 
WWUS43 KDTX 020402
WSWDTX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1102 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW LINGERING OVER THUMB DURING NIGHT...

MIZ049-054-055-062-063-020900-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160302T0400Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0008.160302T0402Z-160302T0900Z/
HURON-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAD AXE...CARO...SANDUSKY...LAPEER...
PORT HURON
1102 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL PERSIST
   OVERNIGHT. 

 * ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AS BANDS SHIFT
   STEADILY OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM. 

 * NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WHILE
   TURNING TO NORTHWEST. 

 * SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED. 

IMPACTS...

 * BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
   HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DURING THE NIGHT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND
   BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
   SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
   DRIVING.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

&&

$$

MIZ047-048-053-060-061-068>070-020515-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-160302T0400Z/
MIDLAND-BAY-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDLAND...BAY CITY...SAGINAW...OWOSSO...
FLINT...HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN
1102 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

WEATHER...

 * HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
   IN COVERAGE OVER THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

IMPACTS...

 * MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS NORTHWEST WIND
   GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8. 

&&

$$

MIZ075-076-082-083-020515-
/O.CAN.KDTX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-160302T0400Z/
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT...ADRIAN...MONROE
1102 PM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

WEATHER...

 * HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
   IN COVERAGE OVER THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT.

IMPACTS...

 * MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS NORTHWEST WIND
   GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8. 

&&

$$

BT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

.AVIATION...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-94 AND I-96 CORRIDORS AND
TRANSITION INTO METRO DETROIT DURING THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THE BAND OF SNOW WILL LIFT ACROSS PTK AND FNT BETWEEN
08Z AND 11Z WHILE INTENSIFYING. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WILL
THEN FORCE THIS REGION OF SNOW INTO MBS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION/DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SE MI
TUES AFTERNOON/EVENING. FCST ACCUMULATIONS AT FNT AND PTK OVERNIGHT
WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR DTW...THE REGION OF LIGHT SNOW NOW WORKING INTO METRO DETROIT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AIRPORT SHORTLY AFTER 09Z. LESS THAN AN INCH
OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE INITIAL BURSTS OF LIGHT
SNOW. THERE WILL THEN BE A PROLONGED BREAK IN THE SNOW AT METRO
TUES MORNING BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DETROIT TUES AFTERNOON.
SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES...BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM TUES AFTERNOON THROUGH TUES EVENING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS MORNING. HIGH THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE BEING ALL SNOW THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
  MEDIUM IN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 938 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

UPDATE...

INCREASING RADAR RETURNS ACROSS NRN ILLINOIS/FAR SRN WISCONSIN
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A STRENGTHENING REGION OF FRONTAL FORCING IN
THE 850 TO 700MB LAYER. THIS INCREASE IN FGEN WILL TRACK ALONG THE
MID LEVEL FRONT INTO SE MI TONIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR
SUGGEST THIS FGEN BAND WILL TRACK ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-94
CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE NORTH
TOWARD THE TRI CITIES DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD INVOKE ENOUGH BACKING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO FORCE THIS LEAD
FGEN BAND NORTHWARD. A POTENTIAL PIVOT POINT IN THIS BAND AND THUS
POTENTIAL FOR A LONGER DURATION SNOW OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS /WITH
CONFIRMATION FROM THE 00Z DTX SOUNDINGS/ INDICATE THE MID LEVELS
OVER SE MI ARE QUITE STABLE AT THE MOMENT. THIS WILL LIKELY
SUPPRESS THE DEGREE OF RESPONSE ALONG THIS FGEN BAND AS IT WORKS
INTO SE MI FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. AN
INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL THETA E DURING THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE MID LEVEL STABILITY AND
SHOULD THUS LEAD TO A STRENGTHENING RESPONSE ALONG THIS FGEN BAND
AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD TUES MORNING.

OVERALL..THE GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS REASONABLE. THERE
IS STILL CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERACHIEVEMENT ON THIS
FGEN BAND LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES MORNING. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE
AREA EARLIER WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AT
THIS TIME THE MAIN FORECAST UPDATE LATER THIS EVENING WILL BE TO
REFINE TIMING A LITTLE BIT AND REDUCE NIGHTTIME POPS ACROSS THE
FAR NRN SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB REGION.

IN TERMS OF THE SECOND PHASE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF PHASING OF SHORT WAVE
FEATURES UPSTREAM...HINTING TOWARD A POTENTIAL STRONGER SYSTEM
TUES AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS TAKEN THIS INTO
ACCOUNT WITH GENERALLY HIGH END ADVISORY TOTALS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP TO CUT INTO AMOUNTS FROM DETROIT SOUTH.
THERE IS SOME GROWING CONCERN THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION...COMBINED WITH THE LEAD FGEN BAND TUES MORNING...WILL
PUSH SNOW TOTALS IN SOME LOCALS OVER 6 INCHES. THE DETERMINATION
IF AND WHERE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING WILL BE MADE AT 4 AM AFTER
THE FULL SUITE OF 00Z MODELS ARE ANALYZED AND A LITTLE BETTER
HANDLE IS GAINED ON WHERE THIS LEAD FGEN BAND WILL BECOME MOST
AGRESSIVE.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 342 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

DISCUSSION...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RELATIVELY WIDE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE COMING WINTER STORM...PARTICULARLY CONSIDERING THE WHOLE
SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24-30 HRS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT THE VARIABLY IS EXHIBITED IN BOTH THE
HANDLING OF THE INITIAL FGEN FORCING TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY AND ALSO IN TERMS OF HOW THE DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION WRAPS
INTO THE AREA AS MAIN STORM CENTER ORGANIZES AND RACES EAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MIDDAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. HENCE...WHILE A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL SEEMS A DECENT BET ONCE BOTH MAIN ASPECTS...LEAD FGEN AND
MAIN DEFORMATION...OF THE STORM ARE CONSIDERED...THE OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE IN TERMS OF STORM SCALE DETAILS.

MODEL TRENDS FOR THE 12Z CYCLE LIFT THE INITIAL FGEN FORCING
STEADILY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AFTER ORGANIZING IT NEAR THE OHIO AND
INDIANA STATE LINE AND FOCUS IT FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY NORTH OF M-59
OR SO LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE SEEMS TO BE A LARGE
ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THIS BASIC IDEA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING AS NEEDED.

MUCH MORE IN QUESTION IS HOW THE DEFORMATION WILL EVOLVE MIDDAY
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVES...ONE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN CONUS ROCKIES...AND THE OTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SOUTHERN CANADA...PHASE WITH EACH OTHER WHILE DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS IS THE ASPECT OF THE STORM WITH WHICH THE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULTY. A MAJORITY OF THE 12Z RUNS
REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE AS THE PHASING OF THESE WAVES IS DELAYED
UNTIL THEY ARE WELL THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND KEEPS DEFORMATION
FORCING AND HENCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS RELATIVELY MODEST AS THE
BETTER ORGANIZATION OCCURS TO THE THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

WHILE THIS FORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THE MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS
IN THE MODEL ENVELOP...IT WILL FOLLOW THAT FLAVOR...WHICH KEEPS SNOW
TOTALS SLIGHTLY SUBDUED...GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE WITH
LOCAL 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WHERE FGEN AND DEFORMATION SNOWS OVERLAP THRU
THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH THAT
AN ADJUSTMENT OF THESE TOTALS WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE AT ALL ONCE
THE STORM SYSTEM FURTHER ORGANIZES EARLY TUESDAY AND ADDITIONAL
SAMPLING TAKES PLACE. THESE TOTALS...WHICH OCCUR IN AN EXTENDED 18
TO 24 HOUR TIME FRAME...SUPPORT THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS OPPOSED TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. IF FGEN BECOMES
ESPECIALLY ROBUST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...OR DEFORMATION
APPEARS IT MIGHT COME IN STRONGER LATE TOMORROW ONCE 12Z MODELS
RUN...THERE WILL BE TIME TO REVISIT THESE STORM TOTALS AS NEEDED.

ONE ADDITIONAL ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL COMPLICATE TO FORECAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL BE AN INTRUSION OF MILD AIR
ABOVE THE SHALLOW SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE POLAR BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE ONCE TODAY/S CLIPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE
ATTENDING COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR THAT CAN LIFT UP THE
BOUNDARY...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TO MIX
WITH THE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THIS POSSIBILITY
SEEMS GREATEST FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.

WILL INCLUDE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF A TEN OF AN INCH OF ICING
POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AS MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD IN THE 30-32F AREA A GOOD PARTS OF THE DAY...EVEN DETROIT
SOUTHWARD. ANY MIX WILL TREND TO ALL SNOW AS THE DEFORMATION SPREAD
OVER THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND COLDER AIR IT
PULLED INTO THE AREA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE INTO
NORTHEAST OHIO. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO SEE THE
HEAVIEST...AND MOST WIDESPREAD...SNOWFALL WITH SNOW THEN TAPERING
OFF RATHER QUICKLY IN THE 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE LOW
QUICKLY TRACKS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

ONCE THIS STORM PASSES...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHERN CWA AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ON THURSDAY EVENING AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ALONG THE OHIO BORDER. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE INDICATING BETWEEN
A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH SOUTH OF THE I 96 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...KEEPING
THE ENTIRE CWA DRY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM TRACKS RIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER HALF INCH TO ONE INCH COULD BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST GALES HAVE TRANSITIONED TO NORTHWEST STORMS OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON AND GALES ELSEWHERE. LIMITED DURATION WILL LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 14 FEET DURING A BRIEF WINDOW
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS OVER 20 FEET POSSIBLE FOR
JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS. POWERFUL WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE QUICKLY
LATE THIS EVENING....FALLING BELOW GALES EVERYWHERE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
EASTERN TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT WINDS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BEFORE NORTHEAST FLOW RAMPS UP IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT LOW. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
DOMINATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW END GALES OR NEAR-GALES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ047>049-053>055.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ075-
     076-082-083.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MIZ060>063-068>070.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     LHZ441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...DG/RK
MARINE.......JVC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-011945-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
352 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. REFER TO
THE LATEST URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SEE THE LATEST URGENT WINTER
WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SEE THE LATEST URGENT
WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-011945-
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
352 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LAKE HURON INTO THIS
EVENING. SEE THE FORECAST FOR DETAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
229 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-011030-
SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-
WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OWOSSO...FLINT...LAPEER...PORT HURON...
HOWELL...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT
229 AM EST TUE MAR 1 2016

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING AS SNOW WORKS NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA...

WEATHER...

 * MODERATE SNOW WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE
   EARLY MORNING HOURS.

 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS
   IMPACTED BETWEEN 2AM AND 5AM.

 * NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 10 MPH.

 * AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 DEGREES.

IMPACTS...

 * ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY LEAD TO SLIPPERY ROADS PARTICULARLY ON
   BRIDGES...EXIT RAMPS...AND OVERPASSES.

 * MODERATE SNOW WILL CAUSE REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITY TO LESS
   THAN ONE MILE. THERE MAY BE RAPID FLUCTUATIONS OF VISIBILITY.

&&

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 * THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE SNOW AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
   RESULT IN LOCALIZED SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE TRAFFIC
   RATES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE
   CAUTION AND ACCOUNT FOR THE VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS BY
   ALLOWING EXTRA TIME.

 * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED.
   VISIT HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/RR8

SS