Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Detroit, MI

516 
WWUS53 KDTX 180751
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
351 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIC099-125-163-180845-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160718T0845Z/
WAYNE MI-MACOMB MI-OAKLAND MI-
351 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT
FOR CENTRAL WAYNE...MACOMB AND SOUTHEASTERN OAKLAND COUNTIES...

AT 351 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR STERLING HEIGHTS TO WYANDOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STERLING HEIGHTS AROUND 355 AM EDT. 
  MOUNT CLEMENS AND MACOMB TOWNSHIP AROUND 400 AM EDT. 
  NEW BALTIMORE AROUND 410 AM EDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
TROY... NEW BALTIMORE...DOWNTOWN DETROIT...ST. CLAIR
SHORES...WARREN... SOUTHFIELD...TAYLOR...PONTIAC...MOUNT CLEMENS AND
GROSSE POINTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4263 8264 4260 8260 4250 8270 4254 8281
      4237 8288 4230 8309 4197 8317 4203 8317
      4201 8318 4219 8336 4276 8329 4275 8273
      4266 8271 4269 8268 4262 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0751Z 264DEG 49KT 4262 8304 4220 8316 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BEHNKE

096 
WWUS53 KDTX 180800
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIC125-180809-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160718T0845Z/
OAKLAND MI-
400 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OAKLAND COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4250 8270 4254 8276 4253 8282 4237 8288
      4232 8305 4230 8309 4223 8313 4212 8315
      4218 8323 4245 8308 4275 8310 4275 8273
      4266 8271 4269 8268 4265 8263 4262 8266
      4259 8265 4259 8263 4258 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 276DEG 47KT 4260 8285 4222 8307 

$$

MIC099-163-180845-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160718T0845Z/
WAYNE MI-MACOMB MI-
400 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT
FOR EASTERN WAYNE AND MACOMB COUNTIES...

AT 359 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM MOUNT CLEMENS TO NEAR WYANDOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN WAYNE AND MACOMB COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS: NEW BALTIMORE...DOWNTOWN DETROIT...MOUNT CLEMENS...GROSSE
POINTE...ST.
CLAIR SHORES...WARREN...MACOMB TOWNSHIP...DETROIT...WYANDOTTE AND
STERLING HEIGHTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8270 4254 8276 4253 8282 4237 8288
      4232 8305 4230 8309 4223 8313 4212 8315
      4218 8323 4245 8308 4275 8310 4275 8273
      4266 8271 4269 8268 4265 8263 4262 8266
      4259 8265 4259 8263 4258 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 276DEG 47KT 4260 8285 4222 8307 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BEHNKE

859 
WWUS53 KDTX 180806
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
406 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIC099-163-180845-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160718T0845Z/
WAYNE MI-MACOMB MI-
406 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE AND SOUTHERN MACOMB COUNTIES...

AT 406 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOUNT CLEMENS TO NEAR GROSSE POINTE...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WARREN...ST. CLAIR SHORES...MOUNT CLEMENS...NEW BALTIMORE...
GROSSE POINTE...DOWNTOWN DETROIT...STERLING HEIGHTS...
MACOMB TOWNSHIP...ROSEVILLE...EASTPOINTE...HAMTRAMCK...
GROSSE POINTE WOODS...FRASER...HARPER WOODS...GROSSE POINTE PARK...
GROSSE POINTE FARMS...CENTER LINE...UTICA...
NEW HAVEN AND CHESTERFIELD TOWNSHIP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8270 4254 8276 4254 8281 4237 8288
      4232 8305 4245 8308 4269 8309 4275 8273
      4266 8271 4269 8268 4265 8263 4261 8266
      4258 8264 4259 8263 4258 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 256DEG 41KT 4265 8283 4234 8295 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BEHNKE

708 
WWUS53 KDTX 180812
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
412 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIC163-180821-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160718T0845Z/
WAYNE MI-
412 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4250 8270 4254 8276 4254 8281 4242 8286
      4243 8288 4245 8287 4245 8292 4252 8308
      4269 8309 4275 8273 4266 8271 4269 8268
      4265 8263 4261 8266 4258 8264 4259 8263
      4258 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 260DEG 38KT 4264 8270 

$$

MIC099-180845-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160718T0845Z/
MACOMB MI-
412 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN MACOMB COUNTY...

AT 411 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW
BALTIMORE... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WARREN...ST. CLAIR SHORES...MOUNT CLEMENS...NEW BALTIMORE...
STERLING HEIGHTS...MACOMB TOWNSHIP...ROSEVILLE...EASTPOINTE...
GROSSE POINTE WOODS...FRASER...UTICA...NEW HAVEN...
CHESTERFIELD TOWNSHIP...CLINTON TOWNSHIP...
SHELBY TOWNSHIP AND GROSSE POINTE SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8270 4254 8276 4254 8281 4242 8286
      4243 8288 4245 8287 4245 8292 4252 8308
      4269 8309 4275 8273 4266 8271 4269 8268
      4265 8263 4261 8266 4258 8264 4259 8263
      4258 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 260DEG 38KT 4264 8270 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BEHNKE

247 
WWUS53 KDTX 180819
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
419 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIC099-180845-
/O.CON.KDTX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160718T0845Z/
MACOMB MI-
419 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MACOMB COUNTY...

AT 419 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MOUNT
CLEMENS... MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MACOMB COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: NEW
BALTIMORE...MOUNT CLEMENS...NEW HAVEN...CHESTERFIELD
TOWNSHIP...CLINTON TOWNSHIP AND ST. CLAIR SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4250 8270 4254 8276 4254 8281 4252 8288
      4257 8296 4271 8289 4275 8273 4266 8271
      4269 8268 4265 8263 4261 8266 4258 8264
      4259 8263 4258 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 266DEG 37KT 4259 8284 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

BEHNKE

389 
WWUS53 KDTX 180822
SVSDTX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
422 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIC099-180832-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-160718T0845Z/
MACOMB MI-
422 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MACOMB COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DETROIT/PONTIAC.

LAT...LON 4250 8270 4254 8276 4254 8281 4252 8288
      4257 8296 4271 8289 4275 8273 4266 8271
      4269 8268 4265 8263 4261 8266 4258 8264
      4259 8263 4258 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 0821Z 265DEG 49KT 4259 8278 

$$

BEHNKE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1151 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.AVIATION...

A sfc front will move into the Saginaw Valley shortly after 09Z,
then will advance across metro Detroit between 12Z and 14Z. This
front will cross a moist and weakly unstable environment. While there
will be chance of showers/thunderstorms along and ahead of this
front late tonight through early Mon morning, the potential will be
low as the result of a strong mid level cap. While some cooling
aloft overnight will help erode this cap, coverage and chances for
thunder still look a bit too low to include in the terminals. Most
likely, a few brief rain showers will result. Ongoing low level
moisture advection is however resulting in an expanding region of
clouds based between 3k and 5k ft, likely to persist in the morning.
Expect there will considerable variance in ceiling heights through
the morning.

For DTW...Winds will veer to the west in the 12 to 14Z time frame
with the passage of the front. The boundary layer will deepen during
the afternoon. For the most part westerly winds gusts should remain
20 knots or less through the day.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low in thunderstorms Monday morning.

* Moderate in ceilings below 5000 ft Monday morning.

* Low in westerly wind gusts exceeding crosswind thresholds on
  Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 748 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2016

UPDATE...

The mid level short impulse /MCV/ which moved across northern
Michigan earlier today forced a region of mid level anticyclonic
flow across southern Michigan. The resulting subsidence has
caused substantial mid level warming which has developed a strong
capping inversion across Se Mi. During the overnight, the low
level inflow across southern Michigan is forecast to veer more
toward the west, with the better low level convergence focused
across the Ohio Valley. Propagation of any upscale growth to
convection which may develop across the Ohio Valley tonight is
also expected to either backbuild or push farther south into the
better instability reservoir. These factors support a substantial
reduction in the chances for convection across the area tonight.

A sfc front will push into the Saginaw Valley/Thumb late tonight.
Some degree of moisture advection ahead of the front will support
some building instability overnight. This will warrant just a
low chance of a shower or thunderstorm late as weak mid level
height falls may not be great enough to completely erode the cap.

Aside from the precip potential, winds will be increased a bit in
the forecast update. While the loss of daytime heating will lead
to some degree of weakening in the winds, the westerly gradient
will support 30 to 40 knots in the 1-3k ft layer and will suppress
the degree of boundary layer decoupling. The gradient and gradual
increase in sfc dewpoints will keep nighttime mins quite mild
(only in the 70s).

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM EDT Sun Jul 17 2016

DISCUSSION...

Warm front and late day sunshine will boost temperatures into the
low to mid 80s for the very late afternoon and evening. Stronger
winds aloft sliding into the boundary layer will also start to mix
down to the surface, and expect wind gusts to increase in strength
after about 4PM today. Gusts to about 30 mph should then continue
until mid-evening.

Main forecast issue for this evening and tonight continues to center
around convective potential. MCV left from convection early this
morning over the upper midwest will track across northern Lower
Michigan this evening. This could serve as a trigger for convection
over the northern portion the forecast area early this evening,
especially as it coincides with leading edge of theta-e advection
and increased instability behind a warm front. Severe weather is not
expected through mid-evening, as instability does not look high
enough. Overnight forecast is then a bit more challenging as
subsidence envelops the region behind the upper wave, at least for
several hours, and tries to prevent any convection from firing ahead
of the approaching surface trough.

Upper trough dropping through Manitoba and Ontario will push a
surface trough through Southeast Michigan late tonight, potentially
serving as a trigger to convection once subsidence exits. Best
potential for development may end up being just south and west of
the state tonight, where the right entrance region of a jet streak
will provide some upper divergence. Theta-e advection and instability
will really ramp up late this evening and overnight, as temperatures
aloft cool and low-level jet provides a low-level influx of warmth
and moisture. If this complex does develop, it may brush through the
far southern portion of the state, mainly affecting areas from the I-
94 corridor southward. Severe weather is still a concern given the
degree of elevated instability that is expected (1000-2000 J/kg),
but it is now conditional on storm development. Heavy rain remains
the biggest threat with PW values climbing in excess of 1.5 inches.
Would likely need to see storms train over the same area however to
produce flooding as storms look to clip quickly east at 45 to 50
mph. Fast motion and strong core of winds aloft provided by the low-
level jet would support a damaging wind threat if storms become
organized and can overcome the stable layer in the lowest levels.
Large hail is still also possible. Overall, expecting a warm and
muggy night as dewpoints rise into the 60s and temps only cool off
to around 70.

Surface trough with a weak front (mostly a wind shift and
delineation of some drier air) will drop through the area late
tonight into Monday morning. Drier air working in will end chances
for showers and thunderstorms by mid-morning. Airmass will remain
warm, and good mixing ahead of the main cold front combined with
partly to mostly sunny skies should help boost temps into the mid
80s to low 90s. Main cold front trailing the system will then work
down into the area late tomorrow and tomorrow night providing cooler
weather for Monday night and Tuesday.

Surface high center shifts in overhead Monday night as big upper
ridge builds to west. The area looks to remain in northwest flow
aloft however between this ridge and a trough over eastern Canada.
Models show a shortwave trough dropping through, while we are also
placed under the left exit region of another jet streak. NAM is
kicking out some QPF as this forcing overrides the cold front as it
continues to slide southward overnight. Will continue to lean
towards a dry forecast given stability and preceding dry airmass
however, and just introduce partly cloudy skies.

Surface high pressure will then settle in overhead Tuesday and
Tuesday night as upper ridge encompassing the southern and central
portions of the U.S. amplifies and shifts slightly eastward. This
should bring dry and quiet weather to the area. Temperatures Tuesday
will cool behind the front,

Main story for the remainder of the forecast will be the expansion
of the hot and moist airmass over much of the Southern CONUS into the
Great Lakes region. Last several model runs have brought in 850 mb
temps AOA 20C Thursday into next weekend, meaning high temperatures
AOA 90F are attainable each of those days. The warm 850 mb
temperatures should result in a stout cap, and with upper ridge in
place, not much forcing to break the cap until at least next
weekend. However, some upstream MCS activity surviving the trip
Thursday appears possible, and with copious instability beneath an
EML, cannot totally rule out a couple of diurnal thunderstorms,
especially along marine boundaries.

MARINE...

Low pressure will track north of Lake Superior this afternoon and
evening. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure
south of Lake Erie will lead to increased south/southwest flow with
gusts along the immediate shorelines reaching 20 to 25 knots. A
small craft advisory is in effect into this evening for the gusts.
Overall, expect the highest gusts to occur from Saginaw Bay into
central Lake Huron as funneling up the bay enhances wind speeds to
some degree.

Once the cold front passes tonight, winds will veer to the northwest
and weaken as the pressure gradient eases. This should maintain the
20 to 25 knot cap on wind gusts over northern Lake Huron. Winds will
eventually veer to north/northeast late Monday into Monday evening.
Given the more unstable airmass from the cold air advection, wave
heights will build across the basin with conditions encroaching on
Small Craft criterion for a short time near the tip of the Thumb by
Sunday evening. Conditions will calm steadily into Tuesday as high
pressure builds into the central Great Lakes.

HYDROLOGY...

While the dying MCS entering the area has muddied the rainfall
forecast, it still appears there will be a chance of showers and
storms this evening and tonight as higher theta-e air funnels back
into area along boundary draped south of the MCV generated by this
initial complex. While activity associated with/forced by this
system should remain spotty into early evening, the increase in
instability later this evening/overnight should lead to additional
scattered convection.

Convection tonight may produce, on average, one quarter of an inch
rain across parts of the forecast area. Recent Hires model runs no
longer support the idea of thunderstorm training overnight as the
steady flow of unstable air from the west has been disrupted by
dying MCS and also another small cluster of dying storms over Iowa.
Any heavy rainfall on the order of an inch looks to be isolated and
confined to areas along/south of I-94.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday FOR LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...HLO/DT
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
814 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-182015-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
814 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AS
THEY MOVE TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT PROVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EARLY MONDAY SOUTH OF THE
I-94 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-182015-
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
814 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NEASHORE AREAS TONIGHT.
PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT OR FORECAST FOR
DETAILS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS AS THEY
MOVE TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND WILL TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EARLY MONDAY OVER LAKE ST
CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

SC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
238 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIZ075-082-180730-
LENAWEE MI-WASHTENAW MI-
238 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHTENAW AND LENAWEE COUNTIES
UNTIL 330 AM EDT...

AT 237 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR STOCKBRIDGE TO NEAR VANDERCOOK LAKE TO NEAR
HILLSDALE. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CEMENT CITY AROUND 245 AM EDT.
  CHELSEA...HUDSON...HUDSON AND ADDISON AROUND 250 AM EDT.
  DEXTER...ONSTED AND CLAYTON AROUND 300 AM EDT.
  MANCHESTER AROUND 305 AM EDT.
  ADRIAN...TECUMSEH AND WHITMORE LAKE AROUND 315 AM EDT.
  DIXBORO AROUND 320 AM EDT.
  SALINE AND SALEM AROUND 325 AM EDT.
  MILAN...BLISSFIELD...DEERFIELD AND BRITTON AROUND 330 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE MANITOU BEACH-
DEVILS LAKE...RIDGEWAY...PLEASANT
LAKE...SPRINGVILLE...BRIDGEWATER...TIPTON...
MUNSON...PALMYRA...PITTSFIELD TOWNSHIP AND RIGA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8436 4207 8413 4242 8413 4244 8356
      4209 8354 4208 8377 4173 8376 4171 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 273DEG 37KT 4242 8422 4214 8444 4193 8453

BEHNKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
244 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIZ068-180745-
LIVINGSTON MI-
244 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM
EDT...

AT 243 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
STOCKBRIDGE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF PINCKNEY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PINCKNEY AROUND 255 AM EDT.
  BRIGHTON AND HAMBURG AROUND 310 AM EDT.
  WHITMORE LAKE AROUND 315 AM EDT.
  SOUTH LYON AROUND 320 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE
LAKELAND...UNADILLA... ISLAND LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA...DEERFIELD
TOWNSHIP...PINCKNEY STATE RECREATION AREA...PARKERS CORNERS...TYRONE
TOWNSHIP...HELL...PLAINFIELD AND CHILSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4278 8369 4243 8366 4242 8414 4277 8416
TIME...MOT...LOC 0643Z 264DEG 38KT 4244 8415

BEHNKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
300 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIZ068-180745-
LIVINGSTON MI-
300 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON COUNTY UNTIL 345 AM
EDT...

AT 259 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PINCKNEY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRIGHTON AND HAMBURG AROUND 310 AM EDT.
  WHITMORE LAKE AROUND 315 AM EDT.
  SOUTH LYON AROUND 320 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LAKELAND...UNADILLA...
ISLAND LAKE STATE RECREATION AREA...PINCKNEY STATE RECREATION AREA...
PARKERS CORNERS...HELL...PLAINFIELD AND CHILSON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4268 8368 4243 8366 4243 8368 4242 8413
      4264 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 267DEG 41KT 4253 8397

BEHNKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
322 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIZ069-180815-
OAKLAND MI-
322 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OAKLAND COUNTY UNTIL 415 AM
EDT...

AT 322 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NOVI...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LIVONIA AND WEST BLOOMFIELD AROUND 330 AM EDT.
  SOUTHFIELD...ROYAL OAK AND BIRMINGHAM AROUND 340 AM EDT.
  WARREN AND TROY AROUND 345 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE OAK PARK...HAZEL
PARK... WATERFORD...WALLED LAKE...KEEGO HARBOR...WOLVERINE
LAKE...PLEASANT RIDGE... CLAWSON...COMMERCE AND LAKE ANGELUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC.

&&

LAT...LON 4243 8357 4243 8366 4270 8368 4275 8310
      4245 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0722Z 262DEG 45KT 4251 8347

BEHNKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

MIZ076-083-180830-
WAYNE MI-MONROE MI-
328 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONROE AND WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL
430 AM EDT...

AT 328 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SALEM TO NEAR MAYBEE TO NEAR OTTAWA LAKE.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CANTON AND NORTHVILLE AROUND 335 AM EDT.
  CARLETON AROUND 340 AM EDT.
  LIVONIA AROUND 345 AM EDT.
  MONROE...FLAT ROCK AND LUNA PIER AROUND 350 AM EDT.
  DETROIT...DEARBORN...TRENTON AND GROSSE ILE AROUND 355 AM EDT.
  DOWNTOWN DETROIT AROUND 400 AM EDT.
  GROSSE POINTE AROUND 405 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE GROSSE POINTE
PARK... WILLOW...ESTRAL BEACH...NEWPORT...TOLEDO
BEACH...CONE...ALLEN PARK... LINCOLN PARK...BOLLES HARBOR AND GROSSE
POINTE FARMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4208 8377 4209 8354 4243 8355 4246 8283
      4236 8288 4232 8306 4229 8309 4224 8313
      4212 8312 4204 8315 4200 8313 4190 8325
      4189 8331 4182 8337 4173 8340 4172 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 265DEG 43KT 4237 8354 4205 8359 4181 8376

BEHNKE