Gale Watch 21, NWS Detroit, MI

223 
WHUS73 KDTX 170757
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
357 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

.A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH EASTERLY
FLOW GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE STRAIGHTS THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FRONT. AS THE FRONT LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF
15 TO 20 KNOTS OR SO WILL DEVELOP FOR ALL MARINE AREAS FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED STARTING LATE THIS EVENING AS GUSTS CLIMB TO 25 KNOTS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO AND FORCES A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A GALE WATCH WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF LAKE HURON AS SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS APPROACH GALE FORCE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND QUITE POSSIBLY
REACH GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INITIALLY STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WATERS EASE AND ALLOW FOR MORE GUST POTENTIAL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

LHZ421-441-172000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0060.161018T0200Z-161018T1000Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.161018T1000Z-161018T1600Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
357 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS 
  UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-172000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0060.161018T0200Z-161018T1600Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
357 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EDT TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-172000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0060.161018T0200Z-161018T2000Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
357 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-172000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0060.161018T0200Z-161018T2000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
357 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-172000-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.A.0021.161018T1000Z-161018T2000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
357 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...GALE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
  UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS.
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462-172000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.A.0021.161018T1000Z-161018T1600Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
357 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY MORNING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WATCH...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
  UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS.
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET WITH A
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

HLO

899 
WHUS73 KDTX 171945
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
345 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT SHIFTING TO THE WEST TOMORROW...

.LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR AND DEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTHWEST WIND TO
STRENGTHEN ACCORDINGLY AND PULL UNUSUALLY WARM AIR NORTHWARD OVER
LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN. THE WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE
FOR A PROFILE STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT FREQUENT GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. STABILITY IS MORE IN
QUESTION NEAR THE SHORELINE AND OVER LAND AREAS AND THIS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR TRENDS THAT SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT-FUSED GALE
WARNING. SAGINAW BAY WOULD BE THE MOST SUSPECT AREA DEPENDING ON HOW
WIND GUST TRENDS DEVELOP UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN DURING
THE EVENING, AND EVEN FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE AREAS FOR GUSTS
OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REACH 25-30 KNOTS. 

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT GALES WILL BE REACHED OVER NORTHERN LAKE
HURON ONCE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TOWARD SUNRISE.
COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS WILL HELP PRODUCE THE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEEDED FOR FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 35-40 KNOT
RANGE. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THAT AREA
THROUGH MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND HOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LHZ421-441-180800-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0060.161018T0200Z-161018T2000Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0021.161018T1000Z-161018T1600Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
345 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WATCH. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM
THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462-172045-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.A.0021.161018T1000Z-161018T1600Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
345 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WATCH. 

$$

LHZ361-362-180800-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0021.161018T1000Z-161018T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0026.161018T1000Z-161018T2000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
345 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 8 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-180800-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0060.161018T0200Z-161018T2000Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
345 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ442-443-180800-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0060.161018T0200Z-161018T2000Z/
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
345 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 6 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-180800-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0060.161018T0200Z-161018T2000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
345 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT TUESDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT TUESDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
312 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The remnants of this mornings rainfall have been exiting east of the
area this afternoon. It is apparent through the regional radar
mosaic that a short wave impulse was tied to this feature. Mid level
subsidence in the wake of this feature will linger across the
forecast area well into the evening. There is an abundance of low
level moisture as evident by the extent of low clouds covering much
of srn Lower Mi. The degree of moisture in the low levels does
suggest some possible drizzle during the evening. A weakening
frontal boundary will also inch its way into the Saginaw
Valley/Thumb from the north, possibly triggering a little heavier
showers.

This front will evolve into a warm front over srn Mi overnight, then
lift back north during the day Monday. This will occur in response
to strengthening low level sw flow across the upper Midwest and wrn
Great Lakes. While the better moisture transport will be focused
across nrn Wisconsin and wrn Upper Michigan late tonight, there will
be a ribbon of enhanced moist isentropic ascent that will traverse
the forecast area overnight. This will support a chance of late
night showers (into Monday morning across the tri cities and thumb).
There will be a brief window for destabilization in the mid levels,
supporting a chance of thunderstorms. The remnant sfc boundary will
support a little boundary layer convergence over portions of the
area tonight. Model soundings also suggest, aided by this
convergence, that the ample low level moisture will lead to some
build down of the stratus, causing persistent low clouds and/or fog
through much of the night (possibly well into the morning across the
Saginaw Valley and thumb).

Rapid warming in the 900 to 800mb layer on Monday will then cap the
atmosphere to further convection as Se Mi enters the warm sector.
925mb temps are forecast to rise to +21C during the afternoon within
good low level sw flow. While residual low level moisture may
support some degree of daytime cu, the well mixed boundary layer and
degree of low level warming will result in daytime highs from the
upper 70s to low 80s (well above normal).

A fast moving mid level short wave will eject out of the central
plains and race across the wrn Great Lakes Mon night. The 12Z model
suite all show deepening of this wave as it lifts northeast of Lake
Superior Tuesday, leading to a rapidly deepening sfc low. Se Mi will
remain capped in the warm sector Mon night and will remain within
the strong southwest gradient. This will support very mild nighttime
temps for mid October (mid to upper 60s). The associated cold front
will track across the forecast area on Tuesday. The rapid departure
of this system to the northeast keeps the better mid level height
falls north of the forecast area. Model soundings indicate a
persistent mid level cap and limited mid level moisture along the
front. So convection chances on Tuesday look to be very low. The
gusty prefrontal southwest winds will sustain mild and breezy
conditions through the first half of the day Tuesday, with a steady
drop in temps late afternoon into the evening. The better
isallobaric component will remain well north of the forecast area.
The post frontal west-northwest gradient will also weaken. So post
frontal winds on Tues are actually expected to decrease.

Focus on the middle to end of the week will be on the evolution of
a deepening upper trough and low-level baroclinic zone. Medium-range
models indicate a likelihood for an area of overrunning
precipitation developing along the cold side of the baroclinic zone
within the right entrance region of a strong upper jet. Where
exactly the favorable area for precipitation sets up is a question
mark. For instance, the ECMWF and CMC sharpen the upper trough just
upstream of SE MI, allowing us to get into the favorable right
entrance region. On the other hand, the GFS and a significant amount
of GEFS members do not consolidate the upper-level vorticity,
leaving a weaker and further east solution, keeping us mainly dry.
The play for now is a broad brush chance PoP favoring the southeast
half of the CWA until better agreement can be reached. Regardless,
temperatures will be on a downward trend into the end of the week,
with high temperatures reaching values AOB normal.

&&

.MARINE...

A warm front lifting north late Tonight into Tomorrow will allow for
increasing easterly winds over the north half of Lake Huron, topping
out around 30 knots near the Straights. As the warm front lifts
further north, southerly winds will take hold by Monday evening
across all marine areas, generally in the 15 to 20 knot range. Winds
will ramp up further as we head into Tuesday, as a rapidly deepening
low moving into Ontario drives a strong cold front through Central
Great Lakes. A gale watch has been issued for the northern two
thirds of Lake Huron on Tuesday, with even higher confidence in
Gales with the post frontal westerly winds across the northern third
of Lake Huron Tuesday afternoon. Winds quickly diminishing Tuesday
Night, and remaining light on Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun OCT 16 2016

AVIATION...

Frontal boundary has washed out over Southeast Michigan, with no
wind shift or drop in surface dew pts. Surface dew pts running in
the low to mid 60s is very good for October. with this
residual moisture and modest instability around, there is a low
chance for additional shower/thunderstorm development into
Tonight...but left out of tafs. The main focus of the TAFS will be
on the very low ceilings and fog developing. Sub 1000 foot ceilings
already in place across much of western Lower Michigan, taking hold
across southeast Michigan this afternoon, but especially toward
sunset as the boundary layer begins to cool. High confidence in
ceilings lowering tonight into LIFR category, with good potential
for VLIFR across northern taf sites. Some drizzle is also expected
with the depth of the low level moisture.  Fog and low clouds will
take some time to lift/burn off tomorrow morning. Light south-
southwest winds this afternoon becoming light and variable to calm
this evening/tonight, with southerly winds increasing above 10 knots
tomorrow, along with gusts around 25 knots during the afternoon.

For DTW...Most uncertain part of the forecast is actually the
beginning of taf period, as subsidence and VFR clouds behind the
earlier line of showers persists. Exact timing of the low clouds
returning this afternoon is uncertain, as they may struggle to get
downwind of the Irish Hills. In addition...there remains low
chance of a shower or even remote chance of a thunderstorm. Much
higher confidence in low clouds arriving by sunset. Dense
fog/drizzle is possible, but elected to carry worst conditions
farther north where the front washed out and where there was also
heavier rain.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* High in ceilings below 5000 ft by sunset, continuing through
  tomorrow morning (14z).

* Low for ceilings below 200 feet or visibility below 1/2 mile
  tonight into early tomorrow morning.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...NONE.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...SC/DT
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SF

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
407 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170815-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
407 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE
SEVERE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 20 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST
AT 40 MPH.

AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG AND NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOME OF
THIS FOG MAY BECOME DENSE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOICATED WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BACK
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECT AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE M-59
CORRIDOR.

AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE M-59 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-170815-
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
407 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE
HURON...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA. THESE STORMS
WILL NOT BE SEVERE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY
MOVE TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT AS THIS FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.

AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

AREAS OF FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE...WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THAT TIME
FRAME. A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY IF THE FORECAST
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS RELATIVELY
CONSISTENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

DG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1048 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

MIZ069-070-075-076-161600-
OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PONTIAC...WARREN...ANN ARBOR...DETROIT
1048 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2016

...HEAVY RAIN LATE THIS MORNING...

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE DETROIT METRO AREA LATE THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS
IN EXCESS OF HALF AN INCH EXPECTED...FALLING IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF
TIME. AS SUCH...EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MOTORISTS SHOULD REDUCE SPEED AND INCREASE
FOLLOWING DISTANCE.

SF