Alert archive / Michigan / Gale Warnings in 2016
Gale Warning 23, NWS Detroit, MI
NWS Detroit, MI issued this gale warning at Aug 20, 2016, 4:15 AM EDT. It took effect at Aug 21, 2016, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 16 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 20, 2016, 4:15 AM EDT (08:15 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 21, 2016, 12:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Aug 21, 2016, 4:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 16 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Detroit, MI
The text
As transmitted.
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
5 follow-up statements
019 WHUS73 KDTX 201414 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1014 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO BRING GALES TO MUCH OF LAKE HURON... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER WISCONSIN TODAY AND DEEPEN QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER FAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT USHERS IN COLDER AIR ACROSS THE WARM LAKE WATERS. THE LOW WILL BE AT ITS PEAK STRENGTH...AT OR BELOW 990 MB...LATE TONIGHT...WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT ADVERTISED. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 45 KNOTS IN SOME INSTANCES ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE ZONES. LHZ363-421-422-441-462-210300- /O.EXB.KDTX.GL.W.0023.160821T0400Z-160821T2000Z/ /O.UPG.KDTX.GL.A.0020.160821T0800Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 1014 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A GALE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ361-362-210300- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.160821T0800Z-160822T0200Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 1014 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 36 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-210300- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.160820T2000Z-160821T2000Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 1014 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-LEZ444-210300- /O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.160820T2000Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 1014 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EDT SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ DG
460 WHUS73 KDTX 210146 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 946 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON... .DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFTING FROM LAKE SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT WILL CREASTE STRONG WINDS OVER THE REGION. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON TOMORROW, AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE WEST, LIKELY RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40 KNOTS AS COOLER AIR ALSO SETTLES INTO THE REGION, INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WITH THE WARM WATER TEMPERATURES, WATERSPOUTS ALSO LOOK TO BE A POSSIBILITY. MUCH QUIETER AND FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH. LHZ361-362-211400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.160821T0800Z-160822T0200Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 946 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 36 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 46 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ363-421-422-441-462-211400- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.160821T0400Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 946 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-211400- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 946 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EDT SATURDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-LEZ444-211400- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 946 PM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 29 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EDT SATURDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ SC
753 WHUS73 KDTX 210752 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF LAKE HURON... .SURFACE LOW NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A STRONG WEST WIND THAT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAKE HURON AS A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH BEST COVERAGE AGAIN BEING ACROSS LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY FROM RETURN FLOW FROM DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM, A COLD FRONT, SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LHZ361-362-212000- /O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0023.160821T0800Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ363-421-422-441-462-211400- /O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160821T1400Z/ LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING... THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-212000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-LEZ444-212000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 352 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 16 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ CB
933 WHUS73 KDTX 211351 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 951 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO PERSIST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON... .SURFACE LOW NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE A STRONG WEST WIND THAT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LAKE HURON AS A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 KNOT GALES ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WITH BEST COVERAGE AGAIN BEING ACROSS LAKE HURON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH. LHZ421-422-441-212000- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160821T1400Z/ /O.EXA.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- 951 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 28 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT SUNDAY. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ363-462-211500- /O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160821T1400Z/ LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 951 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING. $$ LHZ361-362-212000- /O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 951 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS. && $$ LHZ442-443-212000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 951 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LCZ460-LEZ444-212000- /O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 951 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT SUNDAY. REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ DG
097 WHUS73 KDTX 211950 MWWDTX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 350 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...WINDS TO STEADILY DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING... .SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT, UNDER 15 KNOTS. BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT, HAVE ALLOWED GALE WARNING FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON TO EXPIRE ON TIME. RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL LAKE HURON ON TUESDAY, INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE JUST A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION, LIKELY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LHZ361-362-212100- /O.EXP.KDTX.GL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 350 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE GALE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY. $$ LHZ442-443-212100- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- 350 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 14 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY. $$ LCZ460-LEZ444-212100- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- 350 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 14 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY. $$ LHZ421-422-441-212100- /O.EXP.KDTX.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-160821T2000Z/ OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI- 350 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. * WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 2 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 2 FEET. * TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY. $$ DG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Aug 20, 4:15 AM EDT, 0 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 20, 4:15 AM EDT, 0 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016
.DISCUSSION...
A significant, deep late summer midlevel trough will swing across
the northern plains today, across the Great Lakes on Sunday
inducing what will become an area of strong 1000-500mb layer
geopotential height falls over the eastern U.P. and the Straits.
Model data has converged on a solution that brings a surface low
to the eastern U.P. in the low to mid 990 mb by this evening...and
stalling out a strong inverted trough in the mid to upper 990 mb
over the far northern Lake Huron basin for the first part of
Sunday. Suffice it to say the area is looking at a regionally
active 24 to 30 hour period at least until the inverted surface
trough can release off of northern Lake Huron sometime late Sunday
afternoon.
The main forecast questions for today center around thunderstorm
onset, timing, and potential severity. As for the questions of
thunderstorm onset and most likely timing, there are 2 solutions
being advertised within the solution space. The first largely holds
off on thunderstorm activity impacting southeastern Michigan
until after 23-00Z, requiring the last of the upper level ridging
to squeeze out of the area and lower tropospheric convergence
arriving with the cyclonic or southwesterly flow trajectories. The
other solution suggests earlier onset of shower and thunderstorm
activity, sometime around 19 to 20Z, along a prefrontal trough
that is hydrostatic reflection at the surface of higher theta e
ridge or lower density aloft. The answer likely resides somewhere
in the middle but the forecast will be more shaded toward the
overwhelming consensus of the hi-res solutions which has some
support from the 20.00Z ECMWF. Bottom line, expecting a chance for
showers and thunderstorms to begin after 19Z this afternoon with
the best time window for thunderstorms occurring between 22-03Z.
As for severity, the most problematic aspect of the setup for
southeastern Michigan is that the greatest instability this
afternoon will be out of phase, or not collocated with the greatest
shear and upper level forcing. In fact, models continue to show that
0-6km bulk shear will remain sub 30 knots for all areas south of M
46 through 21Z, with 0-6km bulk shear increasing rapidly from 30-35
knots north of I69 between 21-00Z. Forecast soundings show that
highest MLCAPEs of around 2000 J/kg will occur earlier in the day
with less clouds/more insolation early leading to a tounge of rich
near surface theta e across far southeastern Michigan. Lowering of
near surface of theta e is expected during the afternoon with the
passage of the prefrontal trough which will knock MLCAPES down into
800-1250 J/KG. This agrees well with the latest Swody1 discussion.
Considering all of the factors the potential will exist for isolated
to severe thunderstorms, particularly north of M 46 after 21Z. The
biggest severe weather threat will be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph
with any line or bowing structures that become orientated orthogonal
to the southwesterly mean flow. The latest swody1 has much of
southeastern Michigan designated as a marginal risk for severe
weather with a slight risk in place over much of northern and
western Lower Michigan which is in agreement with the outgoing
forecast.
Precipitation chances will end rapidly by late Sunday evening with a
robust dry slot pushing directly across the state. No real concerns
with lingering drizzle at this time as deep subsidence is expected
to push to 2500 kft agl which leaves little depth to saturation.
Sunday. The meat of the significant trough will be overhead of
southeastern Michigan which will result in substantial cloud. Model
soundings is showing some backpedaling now on strength of steep low
to midlevel lapse rate pocket that will be in place particularly
over the southern CWA. This leads to some doubt as to exactly how
much shower activity will be around with a boatload of midlevel
subsidence still in place. Will likely need maturation of boundary
layer and deeper mixing for activity and continue to shade later in
the afternoon for the shower activity perhaps persisting a little
into the evening.
&&
.MARINE...
A low pressure system will develop over Wisconsin Saturday and
deepen quickly during the evening and overnight hours over far
eastern Lake Superior. Southeasterly/southerly winds will increase
to 15-20 kt Saturday afternoon and to 25 kt early Saturday night in
the warm sector over much of Lake Huron. The strongest winds are
expected late Saturday night into Sunday as a cold front ushers in
colder air (850 mb temperatures down to around 5C over northern Lake
Huron late Sunday) across the warm waters. The low will be at its
peak strength late Saturday night near 990 mb or possibly lower, with
a very impressive gradient advertised. 925 mb winds of 45kt
advertised by the NAM could mix to the surface Sunday over far
northern Lake Huron where a Gale Warning is in effect. A Gale Watch
is in effect for Central Lake Huron into Saginaw Bay due to some
uncertainty with the exact strength and track of the low. A
Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the southern Lake Huron
nearshore waters. Winds will rapidly diminish Sunday night as high
pressure builds in.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Sat AUG 20 2016
AVIATION...
Moist conditions and light winds should favor MVFR fog development
late tonight. Some guidance suggests formation of IFR stratus
deck. Will continue to monitor but confidence too low to include
in TAFs attm.
Southerly winds will increase in the warm sector of a strengthening
low pressure system tracking from Wisconsin into the UP Saturday,
gusting to around 25 knots in the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms could begin as early as 19Z with lead theta-e surge,
but high-res solutions hold off until the better forcing arrives
along a pre-frontal trough in the 22-02Z timeframe. Opted to handle
the uncertainty in the 19-22Z timeframe with VCSH with prevailing
TSRA 22-02Z. Frontal passage will shift winds to westerly toward
the end of TAF period.
For DTW...Some fog and/or a period of low clouds may impact the
airport in the 09Z to 14Z time frame. Though a few showers and
thunderstorms are possible as early as 19Z, best likelihood for TS
impacting the airspace is 22-02Z. Outside of thunderstorms, sub
5KFT cumulus may become BKN at times Saturday, but feel that SCT
will prevail until 22Z. A period of MVFR cigs is possible after
cold frontal passage turns winds to westerly around 06Z.
//DTW Threshold Probabilities...
* Low in ceilings below 5000 feet Saturday morning, moderate during
the afternoon and evening.
* Moderate in thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon FOR LHZ363-
421-422-441-462.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday FOR LHZ361-362.
Lake St Clair...NONE.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE.
&&
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......CB
AVIATION.....DT
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 20, 4:05 AM EDT, 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 405 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-210815- MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER- ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE- 405 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 2 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-210815- LAKE ST. CLAIR- MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI- LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI- PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI- PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI- LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE- 405 AM EDT SAT AUG 20 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 2 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GALE WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE). DT
The office that day
Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 4:15 AM EDT | Gale Watch | DTX | 6 hr | |
| Aug 20, 10:14 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | DTX | 30 hr | |
| Aug 20, 3:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Midland | 49 min |
| Aug 20, 4:59 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | Lenawee, Monroe | 61 min |
| Aug 20, 5:04 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | Bay, Saginaw | 56 min |
| Aug 20, 5:17 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | DTX | Bay, Midland, Saginaw | 3 hr |
| Aug 20, 5:29 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | Wayne | 61 min |
| Aug 20, 6:16 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | Monroe | 44 min |
| Aug 20, 6:35 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | DTX | Macomb | 55 min |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.