Gale Warning 18, NWS Detroit, MI

007 
WHUS73 KDTX 280742
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
342 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...NORTHERLY GALES LIKELY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO.  THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS REACHING
NEAR 40 KNOT GALES. HIGHER STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR...BUT
THE LONG NORTH FETCH...CHANNELING INTO THE NARROW END OF THE
LAKE...AND EVENTUALLY A MORE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL ALL
PROMOTE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS AND HIGH WAVE ACTION. GUSTS NEAR
GALE FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ALTHOUGH DURATION IS IN QUESTION. A
SHORT FUSED UPGRADE MAY BE REQUIRED THERE IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES
WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY BRINGING QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

LHZ363-282000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0018.160328T0800Z-160328T2000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
342 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-282000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0018.160328T0800Z-160328T2000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
342 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 8 AM EDT MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441>443-462>464-282000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0018.160328T0800Z-160328T2000Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
342 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 37 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 43 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 15 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 22 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-282000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0017.160328T0800Z-160328T2000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
342 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 34 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 3 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 AM EDT MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 AM EDT MONDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SS

080 
WHUS73 KDTX 281350
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
950 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...NORTHERLY GALES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHERN END OF LAKE HURON INTO ONTARIO.  THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS REACHING
NEAR 40 KNOT GALES. GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
FARTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE
ALTHOUGH DURATION IS IN QUESTION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION TONIGHT AND BRING QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

LHZ363-282000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160328T2000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
950 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 34 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 14 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 20 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
  MORNING. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-282000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160328T2000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
950 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 36 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
  MORNING.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ441>443-462>464-282000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160328T2000Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
950 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 37 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 43 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 15 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 22 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
  MORNING. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-290200-
/O.NEW.KDTX.LO.Y.0003.160328T1350Z-160329T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-160328T2000Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
950 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A LOW
WATER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO DROP ABOUT 15 INCHES BELOW THE RECENT
  AVERAGE OR TO ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE CHART DATUM. THIS LEVEL WILL
  HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LEVELS WILL THEN BEGIN TO RISE
  DURING THE EVENING AS STRONG WESTERLY WIND SUBSIDES. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 32
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
  MORNING. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-282000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-160328T2000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
950 AM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET.

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
  MORNING. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

BT

318 
WHUS73 KDTX 281945
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
345 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...WIND DIMINISHING WHILE WAVES REMAIN HIGH ON LAKE HURON...

.GALE WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LINGERING WAVE ACTION ON SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE BELOW 20 KNOTS OVER ALL OTHER
MARINE AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW CANCELLATION OF THE LOW WATER
ADVISORY FOR THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AS OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE A SHARP RECOVERY TAKING PLACE DURING LATE AFTERNOON.

WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE MARINE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MID WEEK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL GET A WARMING TREND GOING
WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND WILL REMAIN MODEST DURING THIS TIME
UNTIL POSSIBLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS THE MID
WEEK SYSTEM.

LHZ421-441>443-290800-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160328T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0018.160328T1945Z-160329T0800Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
345 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 9 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
  AFTERNOON. 

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ363-462>464-282045-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160328T2000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
345 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

NORTH WIND WILL MAINTAIN ROUGH WATER OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE
HURON TONIGHT BUT GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. 

$$

LEZ444-282045-
/O.CAN.KDTX.LO.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-160329T0200Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-160328T2000Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
345 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
LOW WATER ADVISORY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN
CANCELLED.

$$

LCZ460-282045-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-160328T2000Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
345 PM EDT MON MAR 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

BT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
352 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

ENERGY THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE THIS
EVENING AS THE TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS MICHIGAN. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...AS THE LOW ENCOUNTERS
GREATER HEIGHT FALLS...AND AS IT BECOMES PLACED UNDER THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK.

RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL AFTER 6PM WILL BE FOCUSED IN TWO AREAS...FIRST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENT DRAPED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN (VERY
LOW CHANCE)...AS WELL AS OVER FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AS
INITIAL SLUG OF MOISTURE WORKS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE AND STARTS TO OVERCOME THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT FORCING
MECHANISM FROM 21-03Z BEFORE STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN RAMPS UP AND
THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG FGEN COMBINED
WITH UPPER JET FORCING AND GREAT MOISTURE WORKING NORTHWARD (PW
VALUES AROUND 1.0 INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY
RAINFALL RATES FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 6 AM. HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE SAGINAW
VALLEY...COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST FGEN FORCING. LOOKING TO SEE
BETWEEN ABOUT AN INCH TO 1.5 INCHES THERE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-
94. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-8 C/KM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG/SOUTH
OF THE LOW CENTER TRACK WILL BREAK INTO SURFACE INSTABILITY...MAINLY
IN MONROE AND LENAWEE COUNTIES. SB CAPE VALUES NEAR THE OHIO BORDER
LOOK TO RISE TO BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG IN THE MID TO LATE
EVENING...CARRYING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER LENAWEE AND MONROE COUNTIES. LCL HEIGHTS LOOK TO FALL BETWEEN
500-1000 FEET NEAR THE OHIO BORDER LATE...BUT THIS SHOULD ALSO BE
ABOUT THE TIME INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE. THREATS FROM STRONG
STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND WET MICROBURSTS CONTAINING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...LASTING THROUGH MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC DECENT
DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE AND WE MAY STILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME
PRECIPITATION DRAG AT THE TIME OF FROPA. LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...AND WE COULD BRIEFLY
MIX INTO A CORE OF 35-40 MPH WINDS. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE NEAR THE
OHIO BORDER...SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE
WESTERN U.S. AMPLIFIES UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RIDGE WILL START TO FLATTEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH DROPS THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL SEND THE
SURFACE HIGH EAST. RETURN FLOW STARTS TO SET UP TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT ISENTROPIC ASCENT (290-300K...AND BEST OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND THUMB) DOES NOT LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND FORECAST REMAINS DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO GIVE WAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH
LOWER MICHIGAN ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL REMAIN
WARM THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOTABLE CHANGES COMING FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
VERY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE WEST COAST WHICH
WILL RESULT THE JET BECOMING ORIENTED N/S THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA
BRINGING AN ARCTIC TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS ARE
ADVERTISING THIS AIRMASS TO FEATURE 850MB TEMPS CLOSE TO -15C WHICH
SHOULD KNOCK HIGH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S BY SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING
THE EVENING WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVERNIGHT WHILE PASSING NEAR THE
SOUTH END OF LAKE HURON. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON WITH GUSTS REACHING NEAR 40 KNOT
GALES. HIGHER STABILITY MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR BEFORE SUNRISE
HOWEVER THE LONG NORTH FETCH...CHANNELING INTO THE NARROW END OF THE
LAKE...AND EVENTUALLY A MORE NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL ALL
PROMOTE FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS AND HIGH WAVE ACTION. GUSTS NEAR
GALE FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE ST CLAIR AND
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE ALTHOUGH DURATION IS IN QUESTION. A
SHORT FUSED UPGRADE MAY BE REQUIRED THERE IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES
WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER MARINE
AREAS THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY BRINGING QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE MARINE
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTH END OF LAKE MICHIGAN THAT WILL
STRONGLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD PORT HURON TONIGHT. THE DYNAMIC
PROCESS OF THE LOW PRESSURE EVOLUTION WILL HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM TRACK...
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-69. THIS IS WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD
LATE IN THE NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS COULD
REACH 1 INCH BEFORE THE PATTERN DIMINISHES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PEAK OF THE EVENT FROM ABOUT LATE EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1258 PM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING AN OUTSTANDING EARLY SPRING
DAY AROUND SE MICHIGAN WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A RAINY PERIOD TONIGHT. VFR IN THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AS SHOWERS INCREASE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY...AND THEN TO IFR WITHIN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AS THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVERHEAD. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS...MAINLY IN THE DTW AREA WHERE WANING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT ALSO IN A MORE ELEVATED FASHION
FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE MBS AREA. THE PRIMARY TIME WINDOW WILL BE
00-04Z THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER COULD LINGER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IFR IN SHOWERS WILL OTHERWISE LINGER OVERNIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING THROUGH MVFR TOWARD SUNRISE AND JUST AS NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASES OVER THE REGION AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW EXITS EASTWARD.
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

FOR DTW... POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS WORTHY OF A MENTION
IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
OTHERWISE DIMINISH THROUGH MVFR TO IFR DURING THE EVENING AS RAIN
SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD. MVFR IMPROVEMENT LATE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING NEAR 30 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* HIGH FOR CEILING 5000 FT OR LESS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
  MORNING.

* MODERATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING EVENING.

* LOW FOR NORTHWEST WIND EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLD OVERNIGHT
  THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ363-421-441>443-
     462>464.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

&&

DISCUSSION...HLO
MARINE.......BT
HYDROLOGY....BT
AVIATION.....BT

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
344 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-280745-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
344 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THEY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS...LOW
LYING AREAS...AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-280745-
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
344 AM EDT SUN MAR 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AS THEY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.
IN ADDITION TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS...LOW
LYING AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE HURON INCLUDING OUTER
SAGINAW BAY...LAKE CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE.
REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

MR