Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
701 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight into Wednesday/
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Concerns center around chance of precipitation, amount of
precipitation and chances for severe weather for this evening into
the overnight hours. MCV that has been ongoing all day has pushed
into NW IA from central NE this afternoon. Storms along the southern
portion of the line have intensified in the past hour or so and
expect further intensification as it moves ENE into north central
Iowa late this afternoon. MUCAPE values around 2-3K J/KG with much
of the CWA becoming uncapped in the next hour of so. Southerly flow
continues to pump moisture northward and seeing some surface
convergence in the wind field back to the west across ERN NE with
stronger deep moisture convergence in the SPC Mesoanalysis data.
Therefore expect majority of the activity through early evening to
be across the north, with additional development pushing into the
CWA toward this evening with peak heating and as the LLJ kicks in
later tonight and spread activity across the entire CWA. Shear still
on the lower end of the severe spectrum, however amount of
instability should still warrant decent chance for stronger storms
especially the threat of damaging winds.

Heavy rain threat still exists, although the widespread threat has
dwindled some and has shifted mainly to the northern CWA with this
activity expected this afternoon and possibility of additional
storms this evening. Greater chance of training storms this evening
as storm motion expected to be more west to east with backbuilding
possible as storms form along the nose of the LLJ. Have already had
rain rates of 2-3 inches in an hour or less with these afternoon
storms upstream and expect similar conditions into the evening. Will
refrain from any flash flood watch however at this time as evening
rainfall could end up being further south than the heavier rain this
afternoon.

Storms to linger into the late night hours and should exit the CWA
toward early/mid Wednesday morning. Frontal boundary to stall across
the south with additional development possible across the southern
CWA Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night through Tuesday/
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

|The synoptic H300 CONUS weather pattern will vary little over the
next week with blocking high pressure over the southeast US and a
subsequent upstream trough over the western states. This will place
Iowa in broad southwest to westerly flow through the period with
periodic chances of storms. Models are in good agreement on the
placement of the surface boundary across south central and
southeastern Iowa at the onset of the period Wednesday night. Heavy
rainfall will be the primary threat through the overnight hours with
ample moisture pooling along the boundary with PWATS around 1.9 to
2.0 inches and warm cloud depths of 12-13 kft. With the 500 mb flow
parallel to the boundary orientation, cell training is somewhat of a
concern. However, uncertainty lies in the coverage of storms along
the front with little in the way of linear frontogenetical forcing.
This may result in storms being more scattered in coverage and tied
H500 vort max that is progged to move through during the 00-12Z
Thu timeframe.

The boundary will only slowly drift southward through the day on
Thursday owing to the lack of upper level support. This southward
push will be aided by a weak area of high pressure that will be
centered over the CWA Friday morning. A 400mb PV anomaly currently
discernible on water vapor imagery near Yakutat, AK, will progress
southeastward over the course of the week and eject eastward over
the Northern Plains Friday and Saturday. The nearly stationary front
over the lower Missouri River valley will lift back northward into
Iowa early Saturday in response to lee cyclogenesis over the High
Plains and bring with it the chance for showers and thunderstorms
for much of the weekend. POP model confidence wanes into the weekend
given the weak flow pattern and nebulous nature of the upper level
disturbances. Temperatures for the extended should be near seasonal
norms given then somewhat zonal flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening/
Issued at 651 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Storm will quickly end over northern Iowa and not anticipating
much more impact after 01z at MCW and possibly ALO. Otherwise,
additional storms look to develop overnight, but if storms don't
develop, certainly some MVFR to IFR stratus is anticipated towards
Wednesday morning. The stratus will persist through at least the
late morning hours Wednesday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Podrazik

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-241000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
346 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SEVERE STORMS AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAIN THREATS FOR STORMS LATER IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
BE BETTER DETERMINED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
656 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MESERVEY            42.90N 93.47W
08/23/2016  M3.20 INCH       FRANKLIN           IA   PUBLIC

            STORM TOTAL. ENDING TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.
            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. THE DURATION OF THE
            HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES.

&&

NWS DES MOINES IA
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
936 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ005-006-240300-
WINNEBAGO IA-KOSSUTH IA-
936 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...STRONG STORM OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA...

AT 935 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF ELMORE...OR 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIRMONT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO CENTER...LAKOTA...RAKE AND LEDYARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9368 4333 9395 4332 9417 4350 9422
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 239DEG 22KT 4341 9414

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1007 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MESERVEY            42.90N 93.47W
08/23/2016  E3.80 INCH       FRANKLIN           IA   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MASON CITY              43.16N 93.20W
08/23/2016  M1.71 INCH       CERRO GORDO        IA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            KIMT TV.

&&

BF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ070-071-081-240500-
CASS IA-ADAIR IA-ADAMS IA-
1057 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT CASS...ADAIR...AND
ADAM COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

AT 1055 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF WALNUT TO NEAR GRISWOLD
TO NEAR MACEDONIA. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATLANTIC...GRISWOLD...LAKE ICARIA...ANITA...LEWIS...MASSENA...
CUMBERLAND...BRIDGEWATER...MARNE...WIOTA...CARBON...LAKE ICARIA STATE
PARK...LAKE ANITA STATE PARK...COLD SPRINGS STATE PARK...GRISWOLD
PARK...ATLANTIC MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND ANITA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4147 9515 4142 9454 4110 9463 4094 9493
      4116 9493 4116 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0355Z 283DEG 27KT 4139 9519 4122 9523 4114 9538

PODRAZIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

IAZ006-007-240545-
WORTH IA-WINNEBAGO IA-
1145 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

...TRAINING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA...

AT 1143 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR NORTHWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATION AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHWOOD...LAKE MILLS...MANLY...EMMONS...RICE LAKE...BUFFALO
CENTER...THOMPSON...PLYMOUTH...LELAND...KENSETT...GRAFTON...
HANLONTOWN...RAKE...JOICE...SCARVILLE...BOLAN...LAKE MILLS MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...RICE LAKE STATE PARK...HOGSBACK WILDLIFE AREA AND NORTHWOOD
MUNICIPAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4325 9303 4325 9313 4334 9397 4350 9395
      4350 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 268DEG 24KT 4341 9334

PODRAZIK