Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

...Updated for 18/06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Very difficult forecast tonight as the convection from earlier
today has modified the airmass over Iowa. However with the
clearing taking place and the cold front still off to the West we
should continue to destabilize through late afternoon into the
evening hours. Northern Iowa appears to be considerably more
stable than the Southeast half of the state however it appears
that further convection will wait for a shortwave over the central
plains to move East as the cold front inches across the forecast
area. The result will be a redevelopment of storms from early to
mid evening into the overnight hours. Radar is showing storms
festering over Eastern Nebraska and the HRRR model depicts this
remarkably well. I based much of the timing off the HRRR and
trying to time the shortwave coming in. The potential for damaging
wind and heavy rain will again exist with the storms.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Sunday/
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Storms should clear the Southern/Southeast portion of the forecast
area by early morning and clouds should clear some but low level
moisture will not be scoured completely out by the frontal passage
and we should see a fair amount of cloud cover through the day.
Monday night and Tuesday we will see a return of strong warm
advection and deeper moisture returning along with a decent
shortwave pushing across Iowa...especially from 09Z Tuesday
through about 18Z Tuesday. This will bring another round of strong
to severe storms and heavy rainfall to the area. Lingering storm
chances occur into Wednesday as we remain on the East side of the
building ridge axis and some weaker shortwaves top this ridge. For
later Wednesday through at least Friday, temperatures will be
quite hot and with dewpoints in the mid 70s it will be very muggy
with oppressive heat in place Thursday. Some relief looks likely
over the weekend as a strong shortwave flattens the ridge in place
bringing temps back down...along with a chance for storms.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night/
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Scattered to areas of SHRA/TSRA expected to impact the southern
third of Iowa overnight. Mainly VFR conditions are expected...but
conditions may briefly go MVFR within the TSRA. KOTM is most likely
to see the activity...followed by KDSM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...Zogg

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