Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Area of storms slowly moving ESE through the central portion of
the CWA. Expect this activity to slowly wane through the morning
hours, with a break in the chances for storms expected by late
morning. Then expect next round of storms closer to the passage of
the cold front starting by early/mid afternoon north to early
evening south.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Area of showers and thunderstorms across the CWA currently near
baroclinic zone and area of weak theta-e advection aloft. This area
is expected to percolate through the morning hours gradually
shifting south and east with time. Additional development of showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon along and ahead of a strong cold
front dropping through the CWA this afternoon into early evening.
Instability expected to be around 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE, with
marginal deep layer shear. This may allow for a few strong to severe
storms across the CWA as the activity moves through from south to
north. Overall expect hail and damaging winds to be the main severe
threats with any of the stronger storms. Activity should be fairly
progressive with PWATs around 1.5 inches and lower freezing levels.
Therefore flash flood potential is low especially given the lack of
soil moisture across much of the state as well.

Temperatures to top out similar to previous days in the upper 70s
north to low 80s south, maybe be a bit warmer as the airmass in
place is a little warmer. However with lingering precip around today
and cloud cover, the warm up will be tempered.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A cool front will exit Iowa to the south tonight, ushering in
several days of pleasant temperatures multiple degrees below
normal for the season. The front will stall over southern Kansas
and Missouri and linger there, with sunny skies initially across
Iowa on Friday. As steering flow aloft goes more zonal this
weekend and a weak mid-level trough slowly approaches from the
Rockies, the old frontal boundary will provide a focus for
multiple rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across
portions of Kansas and Missouri. The boundary should slowly
retreat northward, but its latitude will be dependent on
convective evolution, the strength of the surface ridge sliding
across the upper Midwest, and other factors. There will likely be
a fairly sharp northward edge to the rain shield and at this time
it appears likely to settle somewhere across southern Iowa. Will
maintain higher pops down toward the Missouri border with only 20
to 30 POPs up toward the I-80 corridor. Any severe weather threat
appears low, but there will definitely be a threat for heavy rain
and flooding along the old frontal zone. It remains to be seen
whether this threat will materialize across southern Iowa or
remain further south across Missouri.

The aforementioned mid-level trough will finally kick out east of
Iowa around Sunday night or Monday, taking the frontal zone and
rain shield with it. In wake of this system deep layer ridging
will build back over the central U.S., leading to a fairly sudden
warming trend across Iowa around the middle of next week as
temperatures likely rebound into the lower 90s. Meanwhile the
zonal flow north of this ridge will remain close to Iowa, roughly
across the Dakotas and Minnesota, leading to the possibility of
one or more rounds of thunderstorms toward the end of the long
term forecast period. There has been a fairly persistent signal
for this in the long range prognostic models over the last couple
of days and the synoptic set-up and season certainly favor it, but
is too far out to predict the timing of such storms or magnitude
of any severe weather threat at this time.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon/
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

A surface cold front will slowly move South across the TAF locations
from 18z through 02z.  TSRA are expected to develop along and
just ahead of the boundary producing MVFR/local IFR conditions. Some
storms may become severe with large hail and damaging wind being the
aviation threat.  Expect a wind shift to the NNW between 19Z across
the NW and 00Z across the SE TAF locations.  VFR conditions will
resume behind the FROPA.
&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

UPDATE...Beerends
SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-011100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
354 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS AND MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO SOUTHERN IOWA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND THE REST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PROBABILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW OVER THE WEEKEND BUT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LEE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
131 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

IAZ044-301915-
CRAWFORD IA-
131 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...STRONG STORM MAY PRODUCE DIME SIZE HAIL...

AT 130 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTH OF ODEBOLT...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF DENISON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DENISON...VAIL...WESTSIDE...KIRON...DELOIT AND DENISON MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4221 9524 4207 9509 4202 9509 4193 9537
      4221 9540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 327DEG 26KT 4220 9531

KOTENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
137 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

IAZ027-028-301915-
BREMER IA-BUTLER IA-
137 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...

AT 137 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAWLER TO MARBLE ROCK. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTH
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAVERLY...ALLISON...SUMNER...CLARKSVILLE...TRIPOLI...SHELL ROCK...
GREENE...PLAINFIELD...FREDERIKA...BRISTOW...WAVERLY MUNICIPAL AIRPORT
AND ALLISON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4265 9286 4291 9296 4291 9208 4276 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 341DEG 26KT 4303 9221 4295 9288

KOTENBERG