Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
354 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

The severe weather potential over northern Iowa this afternoon
into tonight was the main forecast. The ongoing convection over
southern Minnesota continues to drag east-southeast towards
northern Iowa this afternoon. The latest HRRR and HopWRF have a
decent handle on the convective trends through 03z tonight. The
severe threat remains sun-driving with significant surface based
instability as well as MUCAPE values ranging around 3000 J/kg as
of 20z. However, the lack of any plausible effective shear, will
limit the longevity of the storms as well as the severe potential.
Still, cannot completely rule out an isolated hail threat and even
a localized wind threat due to the steep low to mid-level lapse
rates ahead of this broken line in southern Minnesota. These
storms should diminish between 04-07z Saturday, if not sooner
across northern Iowa. Cut back on pops overnight.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Friday/
Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

The main focus of forecast was on temperatures and dewpoints and
thus the hot and humid conditions over the weekend. Leaned toward
a NAM/ECMWF blend for the overall pop/temperature trends during
the weekend as the GFS remains the outlier.

Saturday and Sunday...The hot and humid airmass continues across
much of the forecast area. The hottest day will be Saturday with
highs rising into the middle and even upper 90s across the
forecast area. The dew points look to remain in the upper
60s/lower 70s and look to provide borderline heat advisory
criteria for the entire forecast area. However, with this being
the first significant and somewhat early heat wave, have kept the
heat advisory going for the Des Moines Metro. This is also because
of the overnight lows remaining it the 70s tonight and Saturday
night providing little relief along with the heat island effect.
No major changes with the ongoing max temperature forecast for
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday, much of the record highs are in
jeopardy of either being tied or broken.

Monday into Wednesday...An upper level shortwave and cold front
looks to provide some relief to the heat on Monday with cloud
cover, precipitation chances, and slightly cooler dew points and
temperatures. However, the timing of the front remains
questionable on Monday, leaving the southern portion of the
forecast area within the warmer air mass for much of the day.
Potential for this region to get a littler warmer than what is
currently forecast. The upper level ridge begins to break down as
a fairly strong upper level trough digs out of the southern
Rockies Monday night into Tuesday. Plenty of moisture available
and the best forcing moves across the state during the day Tuesday
into Tuesday night and lingering into Wednesday. This looks to be
the time frame for the best potential for some much needed
widespread rain across central Iowa.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon/
Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2016

VFR conditions will prevail during the entire TAF period. MCW may
see an isolated storm roll across this evening. Left out mention
at FOD and ALO as lower confidence storms will travel that far
south.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for Dallas-Polk-Story.

&&

SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...Podrazik

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

IAZ048-059-060-112115-
STORY-DALLAS-POLK-
401 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

IAZ004>007-015>017-024>028-039-112115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-BLACK HAWK-
401 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

IAZ023-033>038-044>047-049-050-057-058-061-062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-112115-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
401 PM CDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY.

KLP

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