Special Weather Statement, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

TONIGHT'S FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WARM FRONT HAS SURGED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND STALLED ROUGHLY
ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF WATERLOO WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH OF DENISON. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. SOME CLEARING
EVIDENT ON 2015Z VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AS
WELL AS THE 30.20Z RUC SUGGEST SURFACE BASE CAPE BETWEEN 700-1100
J/KG. WEAK CONVERGENCE PRESENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
SPAWNED A FEW ELEVATED STORMS OVER CRAWFORD/CARROLL COUNTY
AREA...BUT CAP IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THEM FROM DEVELOPING ANY
FURTHER. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CWA THROUGH 02Z...BUT CHANCES QUICKLY WANE AS THE SUN SETS.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND EVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS REASONABLE FOR
SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS...BUT THE 0-1KM IS WEAK AND HAVE
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TORNADIC THREAT. THE MAIN CONCERN LOOKS TO BE
HAIL AND EVEN WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 TO
THE MISSOURI BORDER.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...CAA SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND HAVE HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE NORTH BETWEEN 06-12Z THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THURSDAY WILL REPRESENT A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION
DECREASING IN THE MORNING THE INCREASING CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
FLOW. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. SNOW CHANCES WILL HINGE ON LOW
LEVEL WET BULB TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD HAVE RAIN TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY HAVE SNOW FLAKES REACH INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA. POSSIBLE FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY
AREAS THAT WILL NOT LAST LONG. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. ANOTHER PUSH FOR
COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO
THE 40S AND 50S FOLLOWED BY MORE MILD CONDITIONS TO END THE
PERIOD.

THE GROWING SEASON CONTINUES TO CREEP NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA.
CERTAINLY READINGS WILL DROP NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
POSSIBLE HEADLINES MAY BE CONSIDERED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

LOW OVR KOMA TO LIFT NE THROUGH THE NEXT 6-12HRS.  EXPECT SCT TSRA
THROUGH 06Z.  SFC WND G45KT AND NICKEL TO QUARTER HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS.  MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH STORMS ARE EXPECTED.  AFT 06Z LOWER
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS THE LOW LIFTS NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR
WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AS COLD AIR MOVES IN WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH.  THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE LOWER CIGS DURING THE AFTN
HOURS AS AN INITIAL...WEAKER WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE THE PARENT TROUGH
COMES THROUGH AFT 21Z AND BEYOND.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1259 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-311800-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1259 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
TOWARDS THE MISSOURI BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

IAZ033>039-044>050-311800-
SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-
CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
1259 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREAT OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-311800-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-
1259 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A FEW MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KLP

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