Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Des Moines, IA

832 
WWUS53 KDMX 170655
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
155 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

IAC063-170705-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160717T0715Z/
EMMET IA-
155 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN EMMET COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4344 9397 4324 9397 4331 9444 4347 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 294DEG 21KT 4338 9434 

$$

IAC109-170715-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160717T0715Z/
KOSSUTH IA-
155 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTY...

AT 155 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF IOWA LAKE...OR 18 MILES SOUTH OF FAIRMONT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BANCROFT...SWEA CITY...LAKOTA AND LEDYARD. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4344 9397 4324 9397 4331 9444 4347 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0655Z 294DEG 21KT 4338 9434 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

COGIL

460 
WWUS53 KDMX 170713
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
213 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

IAC109-170722-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-160717T0715Z/
KOSSUTH IA-
213 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 215 AM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND HAS EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4344 9397 4324 9397 4331 9444 4347 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 276DEG 35KT 4336 9413 

$$

COGIL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

...Updated for 17/06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Thunderstorm evolution overnight is the forecast challenge tonight.
Weak area of light showers has been progressing east over far
Southeast South Dakota this afternoon along main ribbon of 850-700
mb theta-e advection. It has been gradually drying up as it pushes
into drier air but still some potential to extend into the far
northwest counties before dissipating. The next region to focus on
is activity already beginning over the Central Dakotas and its
evolution through the overnight. Theta-e advection will continue to
increase and expand into Iowa this evening with the MUCAPE axis
entering the western portion of the state. Storms across the Dakotas
likely will grow upscale into a linear complex and follow the
Corfidi vectors southeast along the instability axis though this
path is a bit uncertain with mean flow more easterly. Damaging winds
and potentially large hail will be possible.  That said, no strong
indicators for good cold pool development with the lack of 0-3 km
theta-e difference generally 15C or less. Low level effective
helicity will increase to 200-300 m2/s2 so possible if get strong
enough low level buoyancy, a few mesovortices could develop
and be capable of enhanced areas of wind.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Saturday/
Issued at 331 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Storms should be ongoing Sunday primarily in two areas.  A warm
front will exist from Algona to Ottumwa and will be lifting
Northeast across the state through 18z.  I am expecting some storms
along and ahead of this boundary. Then there will be the complex
of storms mentioned in the short term discussion entering the
West. These storms may get a bit of a kick from a shortwave
forecast to cross the area coincident with the storms moving
through. All this activity should wane through the morning hours.
Then during the afternoon a cold front will be pushing across the
state and be roughly across the Northern third or so of the
forecast area by 00Z. A lot of what happens later Sunday will
depend on how the daytime convection evolves and how quickly we
clear out. The Southeast half of the state will be under the gun
during the afternoon as expected clearing will rapidly destabilize
things. At this point Eastern Iowa...East of I-35 and South of
Highway 20 look to have the best potential as the best shear and
forcing will exist in this area. Much of the activity will occur
between 21Z and 00Z (depending on how fast storms develop) and
03z. After that time the threat shifts more into Eastern Iowa.

Late Sunday night through Monday looks relatively quiet as high
pressure builds into Iowa.  Monday night and Tuesday we see a return
of warm advection and pretty strong theta-e advection lifting across
the state bringing the next threat for storms. Southwestern Iowa
looks to be the targeted area Monday evening lifting across the
Western half of the state by Tuesday morning and aided by a
shortwave moving through the state.  Late Monday night and Tuesday
look like this could be an interesting event.  We will have 60kts of
deep shear across much of the forecast area during the late
morning/afternoon hours.  We could see some very robust storms
across the state. By late Tuesday ridging gets established pushing
the threat for storms into Eastern Iowa. The threat for
thunderstorms will remain over the Eastern CWA into Eastern Iowa
through Wednesday.

Attention then turns to the building ridge sliding over the central
CONUS with the axis somewhere over Iowa.  This will bring hot
temperatures into the region as well as dewpoints into the lower to
mid 70s making for some pretty oppressive conditions mid to late
week.  However models differ on the handling of several shortwave
moving across the Northern Plains and Canada which will flatten the
ridge and bring temps down from the upper 90s to the mid 80s to
around 90 into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jul 17 2016

Generally VFR conditions expected during the TAF period. TSRA
expected to enter the state after 06-07Z and progress
ESE/SE...with the best chances across the northeast half of the
state including KFOD...KMCW and KALO. Conditions may go MVFR during
the heavier precip but have not carried it as prevailing in the
TAFs. Additional TSRA chances return Sunday afternoon/evening mainly
to the southeast half of the state. Have carried VCTS in the TAFs.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...Zogg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1008 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

IAZ004>007-015>017-180315-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
1008 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100 WEDNESDAY AND OVER 100 BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>049-057>060-180315-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-
1008 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100 WEDNESDAY AND OVER 100 BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

IAZ050-061-062-070>075-081>086-092>097-180315-
TAMA-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
1008 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE.

VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 100 WEDNESDAY AND OVER 100 BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

ZOGG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1031 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

IAZ004>007-015>017-170615-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...FOREST CITY...
LAKE MILLS...NORTHWOOD...MANLY...EMMETSBURG...GARNER...BRITT...
KANAWHA...MASON CITY...CLEAR LAKE
1031 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE REGION BETWEEN 11 PM AND 1
AM CDT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN IOWA BETWEEN 11 PM THIS
SATURDAY EVENING AND 1 AM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1
TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING 45 MPH AT TIMES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 7 AM CDT
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE REGION.

REV

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
117 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

IAZ004>007-015>017-170715-
WORTH IA-EMMET IA-CERRO GORDO IA-WINNEBAGO IA-PALO ALTO IA-
KOSSUTH IA-HANCOCK IA-
117 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 114 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM SWAN LAKE TO NEAR MANLY. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.  IN
ADDITION, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.  BE
PREPARED FOR PONDING OF WATER AS THE STORMS MOVE GRADUALLY
SOUTHEAST.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MASON CITY...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...FOREST CITY...EMMETSBURG...
GARNER...NORTHWOOD...LAKE MILLS...BRITT...AND MANLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9303 4291 9303 4291 9492 4350 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 314DEG 29KT 4336 9467 4327 9315

COGIL