Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
320 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

The major concern for this afternoon/evening, as has been well-
advertised, is the threat for more severe storms as the primary
upper wave and approaching cold front interact with a very
unstable airmass with sufficient deep layer shear for supercells.
Most of the kinematic parameters and dynamic forcing suggest a
good probability of at least a few rather high end storms, with
60-120 meter 12 hour height falls across northern MN this evening,
combined with 40+ knots of deep layer shear and at least
sufficient near surface shear and LCL heights for tornadic
supercells. However, as with the event last Sunday, much of the
evolution and threat levels for the rest of today are conditional
with respect to convective mode. If storms rapidly grow upscale to
a line or MCS, damaging wind gusts and the potential for very
large hail will be the primary threats, but if storm mode can
remain discrete for 2-3 hours, the attendant tornado threat with
the most intense storms/supercells will likely be considerably
higher, in particular in the vicinity of the northward retreating
outflow boundary from the morning MCS that currently lies from
near Duluth to Bigfork as of noon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

As a closed upper low moves into Ontario, one more cold front will
move through the forecast area. Moisture will be limited and the
best forcing will be along the northern half of the area. Have a
chance of showers Sunday night. A tight pressure gradient will
result in gusty winds Sunday night and Monday. A few more showers
will be possible from the Arrowhead into northwest Wisconsin on
Monday. This is in response to an upper level trof dropping
southeastward through the forecast area. High pressure covers the
region Monday night through Tuesday night. Models begin to diverge
on Wednesday with the GFS bringing in the next round of showers
and storms faster and farther south across much of northeast
Minnesota, while the ECMWF keeps any rain north of the Iron Range.
Used a compromise approach with pops and kept the mention of
thunder to the northern third of the area. Wednesday night has a
cold front moving through the forecast area through Thursday.
thunderstorms will be possible over the southern tier of the
forecast area with showers further north. Thursday night and
Friday finds embedded pieces of energy in a northwest flow aloft
setting off scattered showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Mainly MVFR ceilings with some patches of VFR at the start of the
forecast. With the approach of the front, expect thunderstorms to
develop and become numerous late this afternoon. Once the
thunderstorms are underway, mainly VFR ceilings will be found, with
IFR visibilities with the stronger storms. Some hail may occur
with the stronger storms. Gusty surface winds will occur ahead of the
front, in the vicinity of the storms, and diminish behind the front.
Conditions will improve to VFR behind the front by 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  78  54  66 /  70  10  10  20
INL  58  71  54  65 /  30  50  30  20
BRD  59  80  56  68 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  59  81  56  69 /  90  10  10  20
ASX  60  81  56  65 /  90  10  10  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001.

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037.

LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Miller
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-261015-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...TORRENTIAL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION AND RADIO...AND
INTERNET SOURCES FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. TAKE A MOMENT
NOW TO PLAN WHERE YOU WOULD SEEK SHELTER WHEN STORMS THREATEN.

STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS...MAINLY NEAR THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN POINTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF
ZONE FORECAST AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30
MPH...AND EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THESE WIND SPEEDS COULD RESULT IN DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY FOR LIGHTWEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-261015-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
KNOTS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. IF VENTURING OUT ON THE WATER TODAY...PLAN AHEAD TO LOCATE
THE NEAREST SAFE HARBOR AND ENSURE YOU CAN RECEIVE WATCH AND
WARNING INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS OF 25 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS AND WAVES
WOULD CREATE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE TONIGHT.

HUYCK/STEWART

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
704 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNZ011-260030-
NORTH ST. LOUIS-
704 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS
COUNTY...

AT 702 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CRANE LAKE TO GHEEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CRANE LAKE AROUND 710 PM CDT.
  NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS AROUND 720 PM
  CDT.
  BUYCK AROUND 725 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE SAND POINT LAKE...
LOON LAKE...ECHO LAKE AND LAC LA CROIX.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4841 9245 4837 9248 4835 9247 4822 9236
      4825 9227 4827 9229 4832 9231 4836 9226
      4834 9221 4836 9216 4836 9205 4833 9204
      4807 9223 4789 9292 4835 9263 4842 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 240DEG 46KT 4832 9254 4795 9282

DAP

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
757 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

MNZ011-012-019-260130-
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
757 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS
AND NORTHWESTERN LAKE COUNTIES...

AT 757 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS TO NEAR EMBARRASS...AND MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...HALF INCH HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WESTERN BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS AROUND 800 PM CDT.
  ROBINSON AROUND 805 PM CDT.
  BABBITT AROUND 820 PM CDT.
  WHITE IRON LAKE AROUND 825 PM CDT.
  BIRCH LAKE AROUND 830 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE BIG MOOSE LAKE...
GREENSTONE LAKE...BEAR ISLAND LAKE...BUTTERFLY LAKE...CUMMINGS LAKE...
FOURTOWN LAKE...SOUDAN UNDERGROUND MINE STATE PARK...BEAR HEAD LAKE
STATE PARK...OJIBWAY LAKE AND LAC LA CROIX.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4836 9206 4833 9205 4832 9200 4827 9201
      4824 9197 4825 9195 4823 9196 4824 9189
      4821 9186 4820 9179 4820 9172 4811 9171
      4812 9168 4810 9164 4811 9156 4804 9157
      4807 9145 4768 9144 4764 9226 4835 9226
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 260DEG 40KT 4824 9215 4773 9217

DAP