Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
659 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2016

Little in the way of showers were occurring across the Northland as
of 20Z and much of the guidance has had a good handle on that. A
frontal boundary was located from a low center in northwest Ontario,
through western Minnesota into Nebraska. This front is forecast to
move slowly east tonight into Tuesday. There isn't great agreement
in how far east this front will move, but overall consensus is that
it will stretch from eastern Nebraska northeast into the western
Upper Peninsula by 00Z Wednesday. We expect showers and storms to
expand in coverage this evening and continue into Tuesday.
Subsidence behind this mornings convection and subtle shortwave
ridging in the broad southwest flow will diminish this evening
allowing the continued warm air and moisture advection and
convergence along the front to create more showers and storms.
MUCAPE values were only from 100-500J/KG as of the 18Z SPC
mesoanalysis, but these values have been rising through the
afternoon and we expect that will continue. We expect some strong to
severe storms to develop this evening, mainly after 01Z. Given the
very high PWAT values for this time of year of 1.6 to nearly 2.0
inches, heavy rain will also be a concern. Fog will be possible as
well tonight into early Tuesday morning.

On Tuesday, the front will continue to make slow progress
southeast and there may be a break in the showers and storms for a
time, but additional strong to possibly severe storms are expected
Tuesday afternoon into the evening and especially over northwest
Wisconsin. Heavy rain will also be a threat. We will issue a Flood
Watch for much of our northwest Wisconsin counties and for Pine
County in Minnesota. A good portion Pine, Burnett and Douglas
Counties all received 1 to around 2 inches of rain Sunday night.
Since we expect a couple more periods of showers and storms with the
potential for localized high amounts, we decided to go with a Flood
Watch through Tuesday night.

Areas of northern Minnesota north of Highway 2 should see showers
and storms come to an end Tuesday afternoon, with coverage
increasing in the afternoon over much of northwest Wisconsin.

Expect low temperatures tonight from the middle sixties over
northwest Wisconsin to the 55 to 60 toward International Falls.
Tuesday's highs will be in the lower seventies toward International
Falls and in the upper seventies over northwest Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2016

Tuesday night our very wet period continues, with another surge of
warm moist advection along with a weak shortwave that pushes up
along the baroclinic zone extending from central Nebraska
northeast to Lake Superior. This should bring another wave of
showers and thunderstorms to mainly the northwest Wisconsin
counties of the forecast area. The main question will be just how
much precipitation this brings. Precipitable water values remain
very high through Tuesday night, ranging around 1.5 inches, which
is in the 90-100th percentile, or in that 150-200% of normal. For
now have some amounts of two to four tenths of an inch. While this
is not very high, there are likely to be locally higher amounts
and it will just augment the precipitation that fell last night,
and what is expected in the next 24 hours. Thus, the flood watch
continues Tuesday night.

Heavy rainfall should come to an end Wednesday morning, though with
the front and 850mb baroclinic zone still just southeast of the
forecast area some chances for showers and thunderstorms continue
through Wednesday.  Wednesday night another upper level shortwave
rolls through the area and will increase precipitation chances for
Wednesday night and early Thursday once again.  As the 850mb
baroclinic zone and surface boundary will have sagged into Iowa and
southern Wisconsin the deep moisture will return closer to
seasonable values, and do not have the same concerns for heavy
rainfall.

We should get at a brief break Thursday afternoon/night before the
next upper level shortwave moves across the Midwest and brings
another round of showers and thunderstorms in the Friday, Friday
night and Saturday time range.  This storm looks strong and may also
be able to bring heavy rainfall, though we will have to watch this
carefully as there are some significant differences in the strength
of this system as depicted by the models.  Another break should be
found in the Saturday night and/or Sunday time range, before
precipitation chances return for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Mon Sep 5 2016

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move through the
Northland overnight, bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. CIG's and VSBY's will range generally start at VFR,
but transition to MVFR and even IFR in spots overnight. Some of
the storms may be on the strong side, with some hail and gusty
winds. Some improvement may develop toward midday on Tuesday,
before another round of showers and storms moves in again. It's
going to be an unsettled week aviation-wide with changing
conditions quite often.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  74  58  66 /  70  40  30  40
INL  56  72  51  71 /  40  10  10  20
BRD  63  74  58  71 /  60  40  20  40
HYR  68  78  62  71 /  70  70  60  60
ASX  66  79  61  69 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WIZ001>003-006>009.

MN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MNZ038.

LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
325 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO PINE COUNTY IN
MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH A RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER MAINLY NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT...THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WITH THE STORMS.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS BEYOND TUESDAY EVENING IS
LOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AS REPEATED ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACT THE AREA.

AT THIS TIME...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
MINNESOTA LOOK MOSTLY LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-061030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
325 PM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
LATER TONIGHT...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS MID-WEEK WILL RESULT IN BUILDING WAVES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE
AND AROUND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. A SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR PARTS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MELDE/LE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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