Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
311 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Strong to severe thunderstorms were moving across the northwest
third of the CWA as of 3 AM. The northern portion of the line
appears to be diminishing a bit, while the southern portion was
becoming the dominant portion of the line. This was generally from
Grand Rapids through Cass County. Continue to see automated
weather observation sites in the 40 to 45 knot range, and that was
likely underestimating the strength of the winds along portions of
the line. Temperatures at 3 AM ranged from the mid 60s in the rain
areas to the mid 70s further east.

The focus for today is obviously the threat for strong to severe
thunderstorms. In general, the best chance for severe
thunderstorms will decrease a bit as the overnight hours wear on.
However, CAM's and forecast severe weather parameters are
indicating the potential for the redevelopment of supercell storms
across much of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Have added the
mention of severe thunderstorms possible for that area this
afternoon to the grids/zones, with the potential for damaging
winds, large hail and possibly a tornado if discrete supercell
storms do develop. Coordinated this with the NWS office in
Marquette this morning, as well as the SPC products.

After the passage of the cold front today, wrap around showers and
a few thunderstorms are expected to develop along the border
region. Have included a small POP into the evening, but concerned
we may need a bit higher POP's at some point.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to the lower
to middle 80s with high humidity continuing, especially ahead of
the cold front. Winds could become a bit breezy behind the front
as well, as some momentum transfer develops this afternoon.

We could see some lingering showers or a storm across the far
north into the Arrowhead tonight and into Friday as well.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Main concern for long term are chances for thunderstorms
Monday night through Thursday.

The area of high pressure will dominate the forecast area through
the weekend. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the
70s and lows in the 50s with drier conditions. As the high moves
east of the region on Sunday...dewpoints will slowly increase as
the southerly flow develops. Will have chance pops in for Monday
night through Thursday as a series of shortwaves move along the
top of the upper level ridge. Models are different in the solution
for the storms but it does look like the region will be in a
unsettled regime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

Thunderstorms now moving into KINL will continue to spread
southeast in the next several hours...affecting each of the
terminals for at least a couple hours with MVFR
conditions...perhaps even IFR conditions at times. Behind the
storms there may be a short period of fog with MVFR visibilities.
After 15z west-northwest winds expected to increase with sustained
speeds 15-18kts with gusts to 25kts at times. Winds to diminish in
the 00z-03z time range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  58  74  54 /  70  20   0   0
INL  78  58  73  52 /  60  30  10   0
BRD  81  58  77  55 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  83  58  76  52 /  60  10   0   0
ASX  85  61  77  55 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...LE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-041015-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
910 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE STORMS
WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEGINNING AROUND
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...IS FOR AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SUCH AS THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS...GRAND
RAPIDS...AND BRAINERD LAKES AREAS. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. SOME
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...INCLUDING THE RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL FLASH FLOODING...AND LARGE HAIL. THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-041015-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
910 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BEFORE DAWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOR AREAS NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE
ALONG NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

LE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
200 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

MNZ019-026-040730-
SOUTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-
200 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL ST. LOUIS
AND SOUTHEASTERN ITASCA COUNTIES...

AT 200 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
11 MILES SOUTH OF MEADOW BROOK...TO NEAR CHISHOLM...TO NEAR
COLERAINE...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HIBBING...GRAND RAPIDS...VIRGINIA...CHISHOLM...EVELETH...
MOUNTAIN IRON...COLERAINE...GILBERT...KEEWATIN...BUHL...NASHWAUK...
BIWABIK...CHERRY...TACONITE...WARBA...TOIVOLA...PENGILLY...GUNN...
PERCH LAKE AND BLACKBERRY.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4746 9311 4746 9307 4778 9303 4774 9236
      4738 9240 4705 9296 4720 9354
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 283DEG 31KT 4770 9297 4748 9299 4724 9339

LE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
210 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

MNZ025-033-034-040730-
SOUTH CASS-NORTH CASS-CROW WING-
210 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL CASS AND
NORTHWESTERN CROW WING COUNTIES...

AT 210 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
POPLAR...OR 29 MILES SOUTH OF WALKER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...PENNY SIZE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINE RIVER...HACKENSACK...BACKUS...POPLAR...LEADER...OSHAWA...
JENKINS...CHICKAMAW BEACH...ESTERDY...BIG PORTAGE LAKE...
LOWER HAY LAKE AND LAKE ADA.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. SEEK
SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE UNTIL THIS STORM
PASSES.

LAT...LON 4680 9479 4680 9466 4694 9466 4697 9461
      4673 9417 4644 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 234DEG 36KT 4668 9476

LE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
216 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

MNZ025-026-033-035-040730-
SOUTH CASS-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-NORTHERN AITKIN-
216 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CASS...
SOUTHEASTERN ITASCA AND NORTHERN AITKIN COUNTIES...

AT 215 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES NORTH OF HILL CITY...TO NEAR HACKENSACK...AND MOVING SOUTH AT
25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND RAPIDS...WALKER...COHASSET...COLERAINE...SWAN RIVER...
HILL CITY...REMER...WABEDO...HACKENSACK...BACKUS...WARBA...
LONGVILLE...FEDERAL DAM...BOY RIVER...JACOBSON...LEECH LAKE...
WOMAN LAKE...SWATARA...GUNN AND OUTING.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE
ROAD.

LAT...LON 4683 9466 4722 9465 4726 9322 4689 9307
      4680 9416 4681 9434 4679 9435 4676 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 343DEG 21KT 4709 9354 4700 9457

LE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
231 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

MNZ011-019-026-037-040800-
SOUTH ITASCA-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTH ST.
LOUIS-
231 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ST. LOUIS AND
EASTERN ITASCA COUNTIES...

AT 231 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE VERMILION...TO NEAR BUHL...TO 8 MILES
EAST OF SWAN RIVER...AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HIBBING...LAKE VERMILION...VIRGINIA...CHISHOLM...EVELETH...
MOUNTAIN IRON...HOYT LAKES...GILBERT...AURORA...BUHL...BIWABIK...
CHERRY...EMBARRASS...COOK...TOWER...COTTON...TOIVOLA...MEADOWLANDS...
MAKINEN AND FRANKLIN.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

LAT...LON 4798 9207 4733 9225 4685 9270 4718 9320
      4752 9283 4806 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0731Z 294DEG 23KT 4798 9255 4747 9268 4712 9302

LE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
302 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

MNZ011-019-040830-
CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-NORTH ST. LOUIS-
302 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ST. LOUIS
COUNTY...

AT 301 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM BOUNDARY WATERS CANOE AREA WILDERNESS...TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
GILBERT... AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELY...LAKE VERMILION...VIRGINIA...HOYT LAKES...GILBERT...AURORA...
BABBITT...BIWABIK...EMBARRASS...TOWER...BURNTSIDE LAKE...ROBINSON...
BIRCH LAKE...MAKINEN...MCKINLEY...BEAR ISLAND LAKE...RIDGE...
SHAGAWA LAKE...SOUDAN AND HIGH LAKE.

SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

IF YOU ARE ON OR NEAR ONE OF THE MANY AREA LAKES...GET OFF OF THE
WATER IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER ON SHORE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING.

LAT...LON 4826 9199 4824 9197 4825 9197 4825 9195
      4823 9196 4823 9194 4824 9189 4821 9186
      4821 9182 4820 9180 4814 9180 4735 9196
      4734 9251 4830 9224
TIME...MOT...LOC 0801Z 261DEG 28KT 4823 9215 4740 9241

STEWART

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