Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1013 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016

The forecast was updated through tonight, mainly focusing on the
winds and pcpn chances through this evening. The latest rap, nam,
and gfs soundings have widespread 20 to 30 mph within the mixing
layer for this afternoon through this evening, so felt confident
in the need to increase the sustained and wind gust speeds for
today. The strongest winds will likely be within a corridor from
the Brainerd Lakes to Pine City areas of northeast Minnesota this
afternoon, where gusts could approach 30 mph.

Still expecting scattered showers and isolated/scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon through this evening. Increased the
pcpn chances though to have some periods of likely/numerous
showers during the middle to late afternoon, including for the
Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016

The weather pattern will be changing as the earlier stacked low is
moving eastward. The early morning weather map features the
longwave trough extending from central Manitoba through Lake
Superior and all the way down to TX. The surface low was over
Lake Huron while high pressure was over the High Plains to the TX
Panhandle. with the low moving off...the extensive cloudiness has
dissipated over the northland so we will see more sun today. But
more clouds will develop quickly after sunrise with very steep
lapse rates with a 500 mb cold pool at -16 to -20C. The effects of
this combined with a strong short wave rotating through the upper
trough will set off afternoon showers and thunderstorms in a
weakly unstable airmass. As these will be somewhat diurnally
driven expect a decrease in the evening...but with the series of
shortwaves moving through the upper flow there will continue to be
a chance of showers through Monday.

Winds will increase today with BUFR soundings indicating a deep
mixed layer with dry adiabatic lapse rates with over 25 knots
available to mix down...with the highest over the southwest corner
of the forecast area. BUFR sounding at KBRD shows a mixing height
of 6500 feet or 750 mb where winds will be 28 kts and these could
mix down to the sfc.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016

Concern for long term is chances for precipitation is low
relative humidity values on Tuesday...chance for precip Thursday
through Sunday.

A ridge of high pressure will bring in much drier air to the
forecast region on Tuesday.  The soundings indicate there will be a
deep mixed layer up to near 700 mb.  Mixing down this down to the
surface along with the higher winds will push relative humidity
values into the 22-28 percent range across most of the area.  These
conditions may cause some fire weather concerns on Tuesday.

The ridge moves east Tuesday night and Wednesday which will cause a
southerly flow to develop along with warmer temperatures. A
shortwave will move through the upper level ridge and travel across
the region Thursday and Friday brining a possibility of showers and
scattered thunderstorms for Thursday and friday.  An area of low
pressure will develop in the northern plains Friday night and slowly
move east over the weekend.  This will pull in more moisture across
the region Saturday and Sunday bringing a good possibility of
showers and thunderstorms for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2016

fog and low ceilings are causing lifr-ifr conditions at DLH/HIB
and HYR taf sites at issuance time. These conditions should
improve to vfr by 14z as the winds increase. The BRD/INL sites are
mvfr and should also increase to VFR by 14z. The winds will
increase to nw 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph by late morning
at all taf sites and continuing into the evening. There will be a
possibility of showers and thunderstorms beginning midday and
extending into the evening hours. The winds will decrease late
evening but there will still be a possibility of a shower or
thunderstorm. VFR conditions should dominate the TAF sites tonight
with MVFR conditions in fog possible after midnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  50  63  43 /  70  30  40  10
INL  70  50  60  42 /  60  50  40  10
BRD  76  53  65  46 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  73  51  63  45 /  70  40  50  20
ASX  70  51  63  45 /  70  30  50  20

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...Stewart

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
830 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061200-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
830 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LARGE HAIL...AND
BRIEF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER SOME OF THE STORMS
MONDAY COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-061200-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
830 AM CDT SUN JUN 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...THEY COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD
TO WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AND THERE IS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND
GUSTS TO 30 KTS.

CLC/HUYCK

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

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