Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Duluth, MN

616 
WWUS83 KDLH 091535 AAA
RFWDLH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1035 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...

.WARM...DRY...AND GUSTY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW
TODAY...PEAKING DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR THE GRAND
RAPIDS...BRAINERD LAKES...AITKIN...AND PINE CITY AREAS...WHICH IS
WHERE THE COMBINATION OF THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. ANY FIRES THAT
DEVELOP WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.

MNZ018-025-026-033>036-038-092300-
/O.CON.KDLH.FW.W.0004.160509T1800Z-160509T2300Z/
NORTH ITASCA-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-CROW WING-
NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-PINE-
1035 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN MINNESOTA...FIRE WEATHER ZONES 018...025... 
  026...033...034...035...036 AND 038.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW....OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

G2

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

WORK WEEK BEGINS SUNNY AND MILD BUT A COOLING TREND IS ON THE WAY.
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS RAMP UP WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 53 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. FURTHER NORTH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED...BUT A
SHARP NORTHERN EDGE IS EXPECTED WITH PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA INCLUDING THE BOUNDARY WATERS RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP AND ACTUALLY REMAINING AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TODAY EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 50S. COOLER OVERALL
TUESDAY AS SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO EAST-SOUTHEAST REMAINING BREEZY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...AND AS COOL AS THE MID 40S IN THE
TWIN PORTS AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY AND MILD DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN TODAY. PRECIP
DEVELOPS ALONG WHAT IS ESSENTIALLY A BROAD WARM FRONT ZONE
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH...REACHING THE BRAINERD TO LAKE MILLE
LACS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS PRECIP
COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPREADS
NORTHWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. HEAVIEST PRECIP RATES WILL
OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING IN A WALKER TO HINCKLEY CORRIDOR WHERE THE
BEST FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS DUE TO STRONG PVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS ACTUALLY
FURTHER SOUTH DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE VERTICAL COLUMN SATURATES
TONIGHT...SO HAVE LIMITED PRECIP CHANCES TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT AT BEST
BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY.

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS INSTABILITY
SEEMS VERY LIMITED. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
BUT AT THIS POINT MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY LOW POTENTIAL
FOR INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GENERALLY DRY WEATHER...WE WILL SEE A
TRANSITION TO WET WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE
LAKE SUPERIOR REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ALSO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL SEE
QUITE A CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH A MAJOR UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTING UP SHOP IN ONTARIO...AND BRINGING VARIOUS
SHORTWAVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER LOW. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT NIGHT...AND MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL
COOL CONSIDERABLY THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY...AND 50S AND 60S ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S...WITH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY MODERATING BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 30S...WITH
SOME 40S EARLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
TO LATE MORNING. SMOKE FROM CANADA FIRES MAY RESULT IN SOME
RESTRICTION TO VISIBILITIES AT BRD UNTIL MID MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  41  47  43 /  10  60  60  30
INL  72  43  63  47 /   0  20  40  30
BRD  69  48  58  49 /  40  70  60  30
HYR  68  47  59  49 /  20  60  60  30
ASX  63  39  57  46 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM CDT
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
356 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-091130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
356 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

BOTH THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN DEPARTMENTS OF NATURAL RESOURCES
ARE REPORTING HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
BE MUCH WEAKER TONIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM BECOMING CRITICAL...BUT BURN RESTRICTIONS MAY STILL BE IN
EFFECT. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF BURNING TODAY...AND CHECK WITH
YOUR LOCAL COUNTY FOR ANY BURNING RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT..

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-091130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
356 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR DUE TO A LONG PERIOD OF ELEVATED EASTERLY WINDS...
RESULTING IN 3 TO 7 FOOT WAVES MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

STEWART

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)