Beach Hazards Statement 17, NWS Duluth, MN

984 
WHUS43 KDLH 250107 AAA
CFWDLH

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
807 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

MNZ037-WIZ001-250215-
/O.EXP.KDLH.BH.S.0017.000000T0000Z-160925T0100Z/
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF...DULUTH...SUPERIOR...
AND PARK POINT BEACH
807 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS EXPIRED...

THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN POINTS HAS EXPIRED AS OF 8 PM THIS
EVENING.

HOWEVER...HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS AND THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL
PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
333 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

At 330 AM, skies were cloudy across the Northland. Rain showers
continued across the northern tier of counties...essentially north
of the Iron Range. Temperatures were generally in the 50's,
although there were a few locations around 60 degrees.

The focus for today will be cloud cover and resolving any chance
of precipitation. Strong warm air advection will continue to push
into the Northland as the day wears on. The main forcing for
precipitation will push into south central Canada this morning,
with a break in the precipitation for most areas for the remainder
of the day. The models are hinting at the development of some
drizzle or spotty rain showers, especially near Lake Superior
where moist easterly flow will persist throughout the day.

Later today, we should see the development of showers and
thunderstorms across the far western portions of the CWA. The best
chance of precipitation will move in tonight.

Tonight is shaping up to be a very wet night, as precipitable
water values approach 2 inches across the Northland tonight. We
could see some heavy rainfall across the region overnight, as an
area of widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms moves eastward
ahead of the cold front that will move in on Sunday. There may be
a bit of a break in the precipitation behind the cold front, but
showers will quickly move in as the day wears on. Winds will
become gusty from west to east on Sunday as well.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A cool, wet, and windy end to the weekend into the beginning of the
work week, but temperatures rebound to above normal and dry
conditions prevail mid to late week. Possibly flirting with the mid
30s Tuesday night (usual cold spots maybe near freezing) but that's
as cold as it gets through the beginning of October. It's been a
mild September - just two below-normal days at DLH so far - and this
trend of mild temperatures looks to continue for the foreseeable
future per CPC 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks.

On the synoptic scale a stacked low over southern Canada will dive
southeast towards the upper Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday
with an associated cold front stretching across much of North
America. By 00z Monday (Sunday 7pm CDT) the cold front will be
through much of the Northland, but as cooler air moves in aloft
chances for showers will linger across the region. The best chance
for rain Sunday night will be across north-central Minnesota and
especially along the international border due to an ample supply of
deep layer moisture associated with the stacked low combined with a
fairly strong LLJ (around 50 knots). This rain will continue through
Monday and possibly into Tuesday across the MN Arrowhead as the
stacked low lingers North of Superior through Tuesday. A broad mid-
level ridge builds in across the Plains Wednesday with a warmer and
drier air mass moving in through at least the end of the work week.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Cloudy, cool, and windy with rain
showers across the MN Arrowhead likely, a chance elsewhere Sunday
night into Monday. Highs in the 50s Monday, upper 50s to mid 60s
Tuesday. Lows in the upper 40s Sunday night. Winds strongest Monday
afternoon with northwest winds 15-20mph and gusts approaching 40mph.
Skies clear out from west to east Tuesday, through clouds may linger
across the tip of the Arrowhead depending on how slow the upper low
exits to the east.

Tuesday night through Friday...Clear skies and a warming trend.
Temperatures fall to the 30s Tuesday night across areas away from
Lake Superior, but rebound with highs in the mid to upper 60s
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday - near 70 in a few spots! While far
from abnormal, these temperatures are about ten degrees above normal
for late September.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Conditions should slowly deteriorate overnight as warm frontal
boundary slowly moves north, and pushes a band of rain, and
potentially a few brief/weak TStorms across the TAF sites. Ceilings
should lower into MVFR category at all TAF sites with the precip for
at least a few hour period, and ceilings are expected to be slow to
rise after precip stops with low ceilings and the development of
some fog. A few sites, especially KDLH and KHIB could see IFR
conditions for several hours late tonight and Sat morning. Due to
strong east winds at the surface, KDLH could also approach LLWS
conditions between 03-14z, but it is marginal enough and shear
appears to be distributed over a sufficiently deep layer to preclude
inclusion in the official TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  57  68  49 /  20  90  50  50
INL  70  60  65  48 /  30  80  70  70
BRD  73  59  64  48 /  40  90  20  40
HYR  68  59  69  49 /  20  90  70  50
ASX  71  57  72  52 /  20  70  70  50

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     LSZ141>145.

&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-251130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTH ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/NORTH SHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/NORTH SHORE-NORTH CASS-SOUTH ITASCA-SOUTH CASS-
CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-
PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
337 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG...AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND ON SUNDAY. THE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-251130-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
337 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH BUILDING WAVES POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ON MONDAY WHEN GALES TO 40 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

DAP

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)