Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
218 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Precip chances will persist tonight into Wednesday regardless of
an upper level ridge of high pressure moving out of the Northern
Rockies into the Northern Plains. Although the flow aloft will
remain fairly weak, ample instability combined with steepening
lapse rates may be sufficient enough to support isolated
thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening.
Considering the rich moist air mass, periods of heavy rainfall
will be possible with some areas seeing in excess of 1 to 2 inches
of rain, increasing the potential for localized flooding.
Otherwise, weak vertical shear profiles will hinder the potential
for severe.

Once again, the air mass will change very little during the period
while surface dewpoints remain primarily in the 60s(F). Lows are
expected back down into the 60s(F) across much of the area with the
lower 70s(F) possible in south central Kansas. Depending on wetter
ground and increased cloud cover, highs are only expected to
reach the 70s(F) in some locations Wednesday afternoon with the
lower to mid 80s(F) possible in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Precip chances will lessen Thursday as an upper level ridge of high
pressure shifts further east across the Northern Plains while surface
high pressure across the Upper Midwest helps usher drier air
southwestward into central and portions of western Kansas. A weak flow
aloft and a lack of instability will likely limit precip chances across
much of the area through the end of the week. However, thunderstorm
chances return to extreme southwest and west central Kansas Friday
evening as a southwesterly flow aloft develops across the Central
Rockies ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Diurnal
thunderstorms are expected to develop lee of the Rockies within a
southeasterly upslope flow Friday afternoon with storms potentially
drifting into extreme western Kansas Friday evening.

Temperatures will remain a little below normal Thursday as a slowly
developing southeasterly upslope flow is slow to erode the cooler
air mass across the high plains. The NAM/GFS show H85 temperatures
around the mid teens(C) across central Kansas to near 20C closer
to the Colorado border. Highs can be expected up into the lower
to mid 80s(F) Thursday afternoon. A general warming trend is then
likely through the weekend as the low level flow gradually becomes
more southerly, drawing warmer air northward into the high plains.
Highs may reach the lower 90s(F) by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
to drift northeast across western and central Kansas through this
evening. Look for periodic MVFR conditions in the vicinity of KDDC
and KHYS through late this afternoon as the stratus deck slowly
lifts. Widespread VFR conditions are likely by this evening,
although stratus may redevelop late this evening returning the
potential for MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys overnight. Winds will remain
light and variable through early Wednesday as high pressure
dominates across the Northern and Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  80  62  79 /  60  50  40  30
GCK  63  80  61  80 /  60  40  30  30
EHA  62  80  60  80 /  70  40  40  30
LBL  65  80  62  80 /  70  50  40  40
HYS  63  77  60  79 /  60  50  20  10
P28  68  83  65  82 /  60  60  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
443 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-311000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
443 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016 /343 AM MDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. AT THIS TIME SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  WEDNESDAY...
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  FRIDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SATURDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  SUNDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

KSZ088-301745-
CLARK KS-
1206 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CLARK COUNTY UNTIL 1245
PM CDT...

AT 1205 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF ASHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ASHLAND AND CLARK STATE LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 9978 3716 10000 3743 9989 3736 9955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 207DEG 10KT 3725 9983

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

KSZ080-089-090-302100-
KIOWA KS-BARBER KS-COMANCHE KS-
311 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COMANCHE...
NORTHWESTERN BARBER AND SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

AT 310 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WILMORE...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLDWATER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLDWATER...WILMORE AND BELVIDERE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 9917 3728 9935 3753 9931 3741 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 205DEG 21KT 3737 9920

TURNER