Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
616 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Nudged pop grids/thunderstorm coverage upward this evening and
overnight, through sunrise Friday, as cold front boundary
continues to slide south through a very moist atmosphere. With
precipitable water approaching 2 inches, and very weak winds
aloft, the primary threat through tonight will be localized
flooding. The lack of shear will preclude organized severe,
although a localized wind gust in excess of 60 mph is possible,
as seen west of Dodge City this afternoon. HRRR suggests
convection will continue to redevelop across the CWA through
sunrise Friday and seems reasonable. Thought about a flash flood
watch, but elected to just include heavy rain in the grids for
tonight for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

For tonight, very weak upper level winds and weak shear will support
only marginally pulse type severe storms with best threat of a few
strong winds of 50 to 60 mph reports and small hail. A cold front
will slowly drift southward across much of western Kansas tonight
with the highest rainfall chances north of Dodge City and up around
Syracuse to Hays. Rainfall estimates could exceed an inch or two in
that area of best isentropic lift north of the cold front. Will
graduate rainfall chances lower south of that area. Overnight lows
will be the upper 60s to around 75 at Medicine Lodge. The front will
shift south winds of 20 mph around to the north and northeast at 10
to 20 mph.

For Friday, the cold front will be near or just south of Medicine
Lodge with a continued small chances for showers and thunderstorms
with mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be only around 80 from Scott
City to Hays, mid to upper 80s in the Dodge City area, and low to
mid 90s along the Oklahoma border and into parts of south central
Kansas. Winds will be northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

For Friday night into Sunday, the cold front begins to lift back
north into parts of southwest Kansas by Saturday afternoon with a
continued small chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highs warm
back into the mid 90s south of the front with mid 80s north.

For the period of Monday into next Thursday, some weak warmer upper
level ridging moves into the Central Plains with little to no
rainfall chances. Highs warm into the mid to upper 90s and lows
around 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Thu Aug 4 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will continue across SW KS this evening
and through Friday morning, as a cold front slides slowly
southward through a very moist atmosphere. Convection will be
slow-moving and capable of very heavy rainfall, with associated
temporary IFR cigs/vis. VCTS obviously warranted, but TEMPOs will
become necessary pending any terminal impacts. Cold front will
make steady progess southward through the airports by 12z Friday,
with prevailing winds becoming NE outside of convection. Areas of
post frontal stratus expected around sunrise Friday, with cigs
possibly MVFR at times. NE winds and broken clouds will continue
Friday in the postfrontal airmass. NAM model suggests convection
may try to redevelop mainly east of DDC after 18z Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  88  67  92 /  60  20  30  20
GCK  67  84  65  88 /  60  30  30  30
EHA  66  88  65  93 /  60  30  50  30
LBL  70  91  67  95 /  60  20  40  20
HYS  65  80  64  82 /  70  40  50  40
P28  74  94  71  96 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
221 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-050730-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
221 AM CDT THU AUG 4 2016 /121 AM MDT THU AUG 4 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM ELKHART TO ROZEL AND NORTHWARD. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH 1 TO 2" AND EVEN ISOLATED MICROBURSTS TO 60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY, HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY
FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
541 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

KSZ030-042345-
TREGO KS-
541 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TREGO COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM CDT...

AT 541 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
COLLYER. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLYER AND VODA.

LAT...LON 3889 9995 3889 10015 3913 10015 3913 9994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 282DEG 2KT 3902 10016

JJOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

KSZ061-062-042345-
KEARNY KS-HAMILTON KS-
600 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT/545 PM MDT/...

AT 559 PM CDT/459 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRIBUNE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
HAMILTON AND NORTHWESTERN KEARNY COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3826 10174 3826 10150 3813 10150 3813 10176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 191DEG 6KT 3825 10158

JJOHNSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
601 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

KSZ044-045-050000-
NESS KS-LANE KS-
601 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TREGO...NORTHEASTERN
LANE AND NORTHWESTERN NESS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 601 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHIELDS...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DIGHTON...SHIELDS AND PENDENNIS.

LAT...LON 3870 10015 3846 10027 3849 10049 3870 10049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 191DEG 6KT 3855 10037

JJOHNSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
629 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             2 N SHIELDS             38.65N 100.44W
08/04/2016  E1.00 INCH       LANE               KS   PUBLIC

            .

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
630 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N SHIELDS             38.65N 100.44W
08/04/2016  E60 MPH          LANE               KS   PUBLIC

            .

&&

AW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
635 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

KSZ085-050015-
STEVENS KS-
635 PM CDT THU AUG 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 635 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF HOUGH...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF FETERITA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUGOTON AND WOODS.

LAT...LON 3700 10149 3722 10136 3720 10107 3700 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 230DEG 15KT 3697 10142

JJOHNSON