Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

...updated aviation...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

A weak upper level trough was traversing the western high plains
region today. An associated weak surface trough was located
in far western Kansas this afternoon. This boundary is expected
to become stationary by late tonight across western Kansas. An
upper level trough will be amplifying over the southern plains
this week while a strong shortwave trough passes across the
northern plains. This trough will push a cold front into
northwestern or western Kansas by Thursday and Friday before
becoming quasi-stationary. The upper level ridge over the southern
plains will tend to discourage frontal penetration south of
Kansas. But convective outflows could force the effective frontal
boundary through the periphery of the ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

There is a chance of thunderstorms in far western Kansas this
afternoon and evening along the aforementioned surface trough.
Upper level winds were very weak so that large hail is not
expected; but damaging wind gusts are possible. Thunderstorms
will gradually die off tonight and then refire Tuesday afternoon
as the surface boundary pulls up stationary across southwestern
Kansas. Expect hot temperatures again on Tuesday with readings
from 95 to 100.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday as
the aforementioned northern plains upper level disturbance pushes
a cold front into western Kansas. It is too early to tell how far
south this convection will make it due to a developing southern
plains upper level ridge. There could be a strong thermal gradient
by Friday between Hays and Medicine Lodge, especially if
convective outflow is widespread across central Kansas. A low
level baroclinic zone will remain across western or northwestern
Kansas through the weekend and into next week along the northern
periphery of the upper level ridge. Thunderstorm clusters can't
be ruled out along this front, with the best chances in far
western and northwestern Kansas. Temperatures will remain hot over
south central Kansas, with slightly cooler readings possible near
I-70, depending on where the effective frontal boundary is
located.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Aug 1 2016

Main aviation concern is if convection will impact the terminals. Watching
CU across the area with development still possible across far western
Kansas. Most likely terminal impacted is expected at KGCK and will
maintain VCTS in TAF. Otherwise, VFR is expected. Winds S/SW 5-15 kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  98  70  96 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  70  96  69  95 /  30  30  30  20
EHA  69  98  69  94 /  40  30  30  10
LBL  72  98  69  97 /  30  30  30  10
HYS  73  97  70  97 /  20  20  30  10
P28  74 101  73 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
847 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-030200-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
847 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2016 /747 PM MDT MON AUG 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE ARE VARYING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY EXCEPT FOR
WEDNESDAY WHICH LOOKS DRY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS
DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

KSZ044-063-020700-
FINNEY KS-LANE KS-
1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 2 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 1257 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTH OF DIGHTON...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN FINNEY
AND SOUTHEASTERN LANE COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3834 10025 3826 10025 3826 10023 3807 10029
      3818 10061 3836 10056
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 283DEG 6KT 3826 10050

HOVORKA