Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
325 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

For this evening, an outflow boundary will continue push south of
Dodge City, with some strong to severe storms possible. Hail to
quarter size and heavy rainfall possible. A supercell or two is also
possible with larger hail with some stronger upper winds today than
yesterday.

Then later tonight a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCS)
is forecast to move in from Nebraska. Will carry highest chances
across south central sections then blend smaller chances west.
Severe storms are not expected later tonight, except for some strong
winds to 50 mph and small hail, lots of lightning and areas of heavy
rainfall. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For Wednesday, upper level northwest flow will continue with a cold
front near the Oklahoma border. Will carry 20 to 30 percent chances
wtih the better chances south and east of Dodge City. South winds
shift to the east and northeast with a cold front. Highs look to be
from the upper 80s near and east of Dodge City with mid 90s for
parts of southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

For the period of Wednesday Night into next Tuesday, an active
northwest flow pattern continues into Thursday then begins to
flatten out with more shortwaves into Sunday. By Monday and into
Tuesday chances for rainfall become less as any jet stream features
shift north. Areas of thunderstorms are forecast daily with the best
chances mainly in the evenings and overnights into Sunday.

Highs will be cooler, with mainly lower to mid 80s into Sunday, then
warming to around 90 to 95 on Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows
will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Light east to southeasterly upslope will prevail with VFR
conditions. A complex of thunderstorms is then forecast to drop
south to southeastward across much of south central Kansas late
tonight and towards morning. The best guess for timing is at KHYS
around 08-11Z and 09-12z at KGCK and KDDC. Strong outflow winds
will be the main threat along with heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  91  67  88 /  30  20  30  40
GCK  66  93  67  87 /  20  10  20  40
EHA  66  95  66  89 /  10  20  30  50
LBL  67  94  67  90 /  20  30  30  50
HYS  66  87  65  84 /  40  40  40  40
P28  68  90  69  90 /  30  30  40  50

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Kruse

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
549 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-291100-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
549 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016 /449 AM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER LARGER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE UP ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR, BUT THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH PERIOD, BUT THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE, BUT THE GREATER THREAT MAY BE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO SOME ISOLATED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
326 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             CAIRO                   37.64N 98.54W
06/28/2016  M1.00 INCH       PRATT              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
336 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

KSZ080-089-282115-
KIOWA KS-COMANCHE KS-
336 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COMANCHE AND
SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 336 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES WEST OF BELVIDERE...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLDWATER AND WILMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 9935 3757 9910 3722 9906 3729 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 007DEG 8KT 3748 9923

WHITE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
341 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW SITKA             37.24N 99.69W
06/28/2016  E50 MPH          CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

            .

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             10 ESE CLARK STATE LAKE 37.32N 99.63W
06/28/2016  M1.50 INCH       CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

            FROM SOCIAL MEDIA. ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

KSZ090-282200-
BARBER KS-
405 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BARBER COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM CDT...

AT 404 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF HARDTNER...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIOWA AND HARDTNER.

LAT...LON 3725 9891 3722 9850 3700 9840 3700 9893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 347DEG 13KT 3714 9864

FINCH