Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1216 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated Synopsis and Aviation discussions...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

At 12z Friday a 700mb and 500mb trough/low was located near the
four corner2 region with a 250mb jet extending from the base of
this upper low northeast into eastern New Mexico. Another upper
level trough was located off the British Columbia coast. An 850mb
baroclinic zone was evident from the panhandle of Texas to
northeast Topeka. A surface stationary front extended from eastern
New Mexico to central Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist through late this
afternoon and then taper off from southwest to northeast tonight.
Localized rainfall amounts could exceed 3 inches in a few places,
with many places receiving an inch or greater. Temperatures will
be held down into the lower to mid 40s today in western Kansas,
with some lower 50s in south central Kansas. Temperatures will
fall into the 30s in western Kansas tonight, and some places
could see readings close to the freezing mark if there are any
breaks in the clouds. The best chance of the near-freezing
temperatures is in far southwestern Kansas. A special weather
statement was issued highlighting the potential for the cold
temperatures. Later shifts can assess whether a frost advisory is
needed.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Another upper level system will approach western Kansas by Sunday
but this system will be more progressive and weaker than the
current system. Some rain is possible from Sunday afternoon into
Monday but heavy amounts are not expected. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side through Monday; but a slow warming trend
is likely by Tuesday. Upper level ridging is expected to develop
over the western high plains by late week, allowing high
temperatures to rise well into the 70s. The next chance of rain
will be late next weekend as another large upper level trough
develops over the western United States.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Occasional rain showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms
will be possible across western and north central Kansas through
tonight. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to taper off
from southwest to northeast between 06z and 12z Saturday. Until
this rain tapers off IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities can be
expected at all three taf sites. In some of the steadier and
heavier showers late this afternoon LIFR ceilings. Once the
precipitation ends the ceilings will begin to improve.
Northeasterly winds at around 15 knots this afternoon will shift
to the northwest and decrease to 10 to 15 knots after 03z
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  37  56  39 / 100 100  10  10
GCK  45  35  52  38 / 100  60  20  20
EHA  43  33  55  36 / 100  20  10  10
LBL  47  36  58  38 / 100  20  10  10
HYS  45  38  53  41 / 100 100  30  20
P28  52  43  64  44 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
448 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-301000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
448 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016 /348 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS TODAY, MAINLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INCLUDING PRATT, BARBER AND COMANCHE COUNTIES.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  EXTREME LIGHTNING RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BE NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. SEE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (TOPSPSDDC) FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  SATURDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  SUNDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  MONDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  THURSDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

JF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1037 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

KSZ088-089-291615-
CLARK KS-COMANCHE KS-
1037 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN COMANCHE AND SOUTHEASTERN
CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

AT 1037 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SITKA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLDWATER...PROTECTION...WILMORE...LAKE COLDWATER AND BUTTERMILK.

LAT...LON 3700 9974 3736 9953 3736 9907 3700 9943
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 214DEG 34KT 3706 9957

JJOHNSON

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