Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Dodge City, KS

839 
WWUS53 KDDC 080053
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
753 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSC171-080102-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160508T0130Z/
SCOTT KS-

753 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3870 10041 3861 10060 3862 10068 3870 10068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 201DEG 58KT 3874 10062 

$$

KSC101-080130-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160508T0130Z/
LANE KS-
753 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTY...

AT 752 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF THE
MONUMENT ROCKS...MOVING NORTH AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10041 3861 10060 3862 10068 3870 10068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 201DEG 58KT 3874 10062 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

RBURG

960 
WWUS53 KDDC 080101
SVSDDC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
801 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSC101-080111-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0012.000000T0000Z-160508T0130Z/
LANE KS-
801 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LANE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3870 10041 3861 10060 3862 10068 3870 10068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 201DEG 58KT 3888 10055 

$$

RBURG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
624 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

Closed cyclone spinning over Utah this afternoon, with surface
dryline sharpening over SE Colorado and eastern New Mexico. First
spoke of energy rotating out ahead of the low ignited a band of
light showers and isolated thunder, which will continue to move
northeast this afternoon. Next much stronger vort max/short wave
arrives in the western zones around 4-5 pm. Convection allowing
short term models continue to forecast a couple isolated
supercells on the dryline late this afternoon. This seems
reasonable, but boundary layer moisture quality is quite limited
for May standards. Still, one or two supercells will likely form
over the NW zones by 4 pm, and then move NE. As such, included
severe hail/wind wording in the grids for the northern zones for a
few hours early this evening. An outside shot of a supercell as
far south as Liberal this evening. Whatever convection does
develop will diminish quickly with the loss of heating, and as
primary forcing lifts well north of SW KS. Generally quiet
overnight, with perhaps some stratus/drizzle/fog near Medicine
Lodge by sunrise Sunday. Lows tonight ranging from the mid 40s far
west to near 60 at Kiowa.

Sunday...Concerned about significant severe weather during the
afternoon and evening, particularly from Dodge City eastward.
Very large hail and tornadoes are possible.

Strong shortwave progged to be near the New Mexico bootheel at
sunrise Sunday. This feature will lift NE, entering SW KS during
peak heating Sunday afternoon. As parent upper low ejects to near
Cheyenne, strong surface cyclogenesis is expected across the
western CWA. Moisture quality will increase across the eastern
zones, and team up with strong forcing for ascent from arriving
jet max and shortwave. As outlined in the new moderate risk issued
by SPC, a few intense tornadic supercells are likely in/near the
SE zones Sunday afternoon/evening. The counties most at risk for
tornadoes and very large hail are Stafford, Pratt and Barber.
Depending on how far east the dryline mixes, significant severe
weather may occur as far west as Dodge City. Residents of south
central Kansas should keep the weather in mind, and have a way to
receive warnings while enjoying Mother's Day plans.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

Monday...Upper low drifts NE to central South Dakota, with cool
cyclonic flow persisting over Kansas. Various vort maxima rotating
within the circulation will likely keep a few showers and
thunderstorms around, favoring the northern counties. Temperatures
cool a few degrees below Sunday's readings.

Monday night and Tuesday...A period of dry weather, beneath short
amplitude ridging aloft. Afternoon temperatures warm several
degrees over Monday's readings.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Next upper low moves unseasonably
far north of SW KS, across the Dakotas. Trailing energy and
associated cold front likely to trigger additional rain showers
and some thunder during this time frame, again favoring the
northern counties. Cold front will pass SW KS Tuesday night,
followed by markedly cooler temperatures (highs in the 60s) on
Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Quiet PNA pattern (strong high
pressure over the Desert SW and cold vortex over Hudson Bay)
will prevail. Temperatures warm substantially Thursday and Friday,
back into the 80s by Friday. Chances for precipitation and severe
convection will remain minimal given this synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat May 7 2016

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across western Kansas
this evening. The probability for these storms to move near GCK
and DDC currently appears low enough so will not be including a
mention of these storms in the 00z tafs. Did however insert a
period of VCTS in at Hays later tonight given the higher
probability here between 05z and 09z Sunday. Based on the latest
observations near these storms along with the 18z NAM BUFR
soundings cloud bases overnight from these storms will be at or
above 7000 ft AGL so VFR conditions are expected. The gusty south
winds at 15 to 20 knots at 00z Sunday will fall back into the 10
to 15 knot range between 03z and 06z Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  82  51  79 /  20  40  30  20
GCK  49  82  47  75 /  20  30  20  20
EHA  45  82  48  76 /  20  10  10  10
LBL  49  84  48  77 /  20  20  10  10
HYS  54  81  54  76 /  30  40  50  30
P28  59  83  60  83 /  20  60  40  20

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
303 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-082015-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
303 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016 /203 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. COVERAGE AND MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.
  LIMITED FIRE WEATHER RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DISCUSSION...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF
DODGE CITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND TORNADOES. THE RISK
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS HIGHEST ACROSS STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER
COUNTIES. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR
WEST AS NEAR DODGE CITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

HAZARDS WEATHER RISK...

  SUNDAY...
  ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  MONDAY... LIMITED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK.

  TUESDAY...
  ELEVATED LIGHTNING RISK.

  WEDNESDAY...
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.

  THURSDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

  FRIDAY...
  NO HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
541 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSZ061-062-072330-
KEARNY KS-HAMILTON KS-
541 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHERN KEARNY COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT/530 PM MDT/...

AT 539 PM CDT/439 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF TRIBUNE TO
15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LYDIA TO 2 MILES NORTH OF KENDALL. MOVEMENT WAS
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENDALL.

LAT...LON 3826 10114 3802 10113 3783 10161 3813 10164
      3826 10175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 229DEG 47KT 3838 10172 3819 10156 3797 10154

RBURG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSZ062-063-075-076-080015-
FINNEY KS-GRANT KS-KEARNY KS-HASKELL KS-
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN FINNEY...SOUTHEASTERN
KEARNY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND NORTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 634 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF HICKOK...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GARDEN CITY...LAKIN...HOLCOMB AND DEERFIELD.

LAT...LON 3762 10099 3767 10131 3800 10126 3820 10078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 198DEG 37KT 3773 10117

RBURG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
740 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSZ044-063-080130-
FINNEY KS-LANE KS-
740 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...
NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 739 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17
MILES SOUTH OF AMY. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF AMY. BOTH STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DIGHTON...ALAMOTA...AMY...SHIELDS...PENDENNIS AND HEALY.

LAT...LON 3870 10025 3821 10031 3820 10068 3870 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 209DEG 31KT 3823 10056

RBURG