Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
330 PM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Scattered showers and t-storms have developed this afternoon as
expected. So far, gusty winds of 35-45 mph have been observed
with a few stronger storms near the Colorado border and out west.
Wouldn't be surprised if a few storms are dropping small hail as
well, along with brief moderate rain. Forecast for the remainder
of today remains on track from the earlier update.

The main focus for the rest of the short term will be fire weather
concerns for tomorrow. Forecast soundings show deep mixing of 30-35
kts at the top of the mixed layer to the sfc, with humidities
dropping into the low to mid teens, mainly across southeast Wyoming.
Some questions are certainly in play though, namely whether the sfc
front from today is pushed far enough east tomorrow due to lee
troughing for dry downslope winds to take over the plains.
Additionally, increasing cloud cover through the afternoon
could perhaps prevent sfc dew points from dropping too much.
However, should be plenty of mostly clear skies early in the day to
promote deep mixing of both stronger gusts and dry air.
With fuels in the yes category for FWZ 301 and 310, went ahead with
a Fire Weather Watch for these zones. Within the belt of higher mid
and upper moisture (and stronger PVA from a shortwave trough moving
across the northern plains) spanning from northern Carbon County
into the northern Nebraska panhandle, could also see a few t-storms
develop in the afternoon as well.  Again, think a few high-based
wind producers and perhaps small hail will be possible. Wetting
rains will be questionable.

Dry and more stable conditions still look probable for Thursday so
kept it relatively dry.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Heights rise on Friday as a shortwave ridge aloft builds overhead
in advance of deepening upper trough over the Pacific Northwest.
Highs will be seasonally normal with just a slight chance of
convection mainly along the Laramie Range during the aftn.
Southwesterly flow aloft begins to strengthen by late Sat. Breezy
southwest winds will develop for areas to the west of the Laramie
Range as sfc pressure falls occur over northeast Wyoming.
Abnormally strong upper low is still progged to swing across
western Montana on Sunday. The winds will increase over all of
southeast Wyoming and with min RH values around 15 percent, could
be looking at a pretty critical fire weather day. Fropa occurs on
Monday morning with a cooler and breezy conditions prevailing
through the day. Convective chances look really slim on Sunday-
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1154 AM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016

VFR conditions through the taf period. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon from LAR to
SNY. Gusty winds and brief heavy rain will be the main threats.
Southwesterly winds will gust to 20-25 kts for areas along and
west of the Laramie Range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 PM MDT Tue Jul 5 2016

Critical fire weather conditions are possible on Wednesday for
portions of southeast Wyoming, especially FWZ 301 and 310 where
fuels are critical. Issued a fire weather watch for these zones
due to expected westerly winds gusting around 30mph combined with
humidities dropping into the low teens. A weak front moves through
Thursday morning which will help keep critical conditions at bay
for Thursday-Friday. Critical fire conditions look increasingly
probable to return again next weekend.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for WYZ301-310.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RJM
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
421 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-061100-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
421 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF PANHANDLE
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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