Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
452 PM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Early afternoon water vapor loop showed a shortwave trough moving
east toward the Four Corners. Subtropical fetch of moisture across
the central/southern Rockies and plains, unstable air mass and
mid/upper level forcing from wave will trigger showers and widely
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening.
Precipitable water values from 1.0 to 1.5" indicate potential for
locally heavy rainfall from the slower showers and storms. Severe
potential low with limited 0-6km shear and CAPEs less than 1000
j/kg. Convection will decrease in areal coverage and intensity
later this evening.

Models have slowed eastward progression of the shortwave trough,
with the system exiting the CWA Saturday evening. Lingering
moisture and instability over the southern 2/3 of the CWA will
produce isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Below normal temperatures will continue Saturday
with highs in the 70s to around 80, with 60s for the mountains.

Breezy, warmer and generally drier conditions return Sunday as
the upper ridge axis moves over the CWA. Isolated afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible over the southeast WY mountains
and adjacent foothills and plains. High temperatures Sunday
will rise into the 80s to near 90, with 60s and 70s for the
mountains and high valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

A warming and drying trend will occur by late this weekend into
early next week. 700 mb temps rise to around 14-16C by Mon/Tues
with west to southwesterly flow aloft. Highs will be back up into
the mid 80s to low 90s. Will have to watch for some critical fire
weather conditions by Tuesday/Wednesday as min RH values fall to
10-20 percent over southeast Wyoming and winds gust to 25-30 mph
for areas along and west of the Laramie Range. Coverage of
storms will be more limited by early next week as drier 700-500 mb
flow works into the region. The ECMWF differs from the GFS in
showing storm chances returning by Thurs as llvl moisture and
instability increase over the plains behind a front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 446 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next
few hours. Brief heavy rain will be the main threat with the
thunderstorms. IFR/LIFR cigs will become more widespread across
the Nebraska Panhandle between 06-09Z. The low clouds and ifr
conditions will linger over the Panhandle through late morning.
Storm chances on Saturday afternoon will be mainly confined to
areas along and west of the Laramie Range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Minimal fire weather concerns through the weekend due to
widespread rainfall this afternoon and tonight...high relative
humidities...and light winds. Drier and warmer weather is expected
Tuesday through Thursday of next week with increasing fire weather
concerns expected...particularly along and west of the Laramie
Range.

&&

.CYS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...ZF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1008 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ106>108-116>119-021615-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1008 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY...WITH WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

WYZ101>105-109>115-021615-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1008 AM MDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
DRY...WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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