Special Weather Statement, NWS Cheyenne, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
418 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CAPE FOR A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING. THE
MAIN POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION IS IF STORM
UPDRAFTS CAN BE SUSTAINED GIVEN THAT STRONG ELEVATED SHEAR MAY
RIP THE UPDRAFTS APART. LATE THIS EVENING BOTH THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AND SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE...BUT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
STRONG THETAE ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING WILL
TRANSITION TO A STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL MAINLY BE ABOVE 6500 FEET BUT SNOW LEVELS INTO
CONVERSE COUNTY MAY DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET TONIGHT AS THERE IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER THAT AREA...AND ALSO
PRECIPITATION DRAG FROM HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES SHOULD LOWER
THE SNOW LEVEL. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. AT THIS TIME SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR AN ADVISORY AND MOST SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
LIKELY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE GROUND...SO IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. OF COURSE IF TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST THEN HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
OCCUR...SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EVOLVES. NOT CONFIDENT IN ANY ONE MODEL AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD
THE GFS VERIFY THEN HEAVY SNOW WOULD OCCUR ALONG THE PINE RIDGE
AND THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM AND
ECMWF ARE SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. HOPEFULLY THE 00Z MODEL
RUNS SHOW A BETTER CONSENSUS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY WED NIGHT AND THURS
MORNING AS LLVL UPSLOPE STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURS AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO
BY FRI.  DEEP LAYER ASCENT INCREASES OVER THE PLAINS ON FRI WITH
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIP.  THE SNOW LEVEL CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
AROUND 6500 FT WITH THIS EVENT.  IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND SHOWERY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER WY.  NOT
EXPECTING ANY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RATHER WEAK
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SE WY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT
06Z...AS RAIN AND MTN SNOW SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

A VERY MOIST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MDT
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WYZ101-103>105-112-114-116.

NE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...SML

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1151 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

WYZ101>105-109>115-261800-
CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NIOBRARA COUNTY-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-
SHIRLEY BASIN-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-SIERRA MADRE RANGE-
UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-LARAMIE VALLEY-
1151 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS
EVENING WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO 7000 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR ABOVE 8000 FEET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A SLOW MOVING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SNOW POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NEZ002-003-021-055-095-096-261800-
DAWES-BOX BUTTE-MORRILL-CHEYENNE-NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-
1151 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF PANHANDLE
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE PINE
RIDGE. THE MAIN CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
PINE RIDGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NEZ019-020-054-WYZ106>108-116>119-261800-
SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-KIMBALL-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-
EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
1151 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF PANHANDLE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS FOR
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SNOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PERIODS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
449 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

WYZ103-106-252315-
NORTH LARAMIE RANGE WY-
CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY WY-
449 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PLATTE AND EAST
CENTRAL ALBANY COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...

AT 444 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES EAST OF WHEATLAND RESERVOIR 3...OR 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WHEATLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN PLATTE
AND EAST CENTRAL ALBANY COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 4173 10544 4186 10558 4203 10534 4182 10514
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 236DEG 12KT 4181 10546

MAZUR